AJ111

Seattle...

Two weeks ago after back to back losses, the Niners were floundering. A team that might not make the playoffs. A QB who couldn't find an open receiver. A coach who lost his touch. Or so the market would have you believe. Now they are a top three team who is going to challenge Seattle for the NFC crown. Kaep is back to form. Crabtree is a deep threat. The Niners are elite. Say it with me slowly...or so the market would have you believe. The reality is somewhere in between. This is a team on par with the Chiefs. Good team, not great team. Good defense, very average offense. They beat the teams they should and lose when they step up in competition. Look at their schedule for proof. Who have they beat? Green Bay in week 1 (when they were a different team), St Louis, Houston, Arizona (when they were a different team), Tennessee, Jacksonvile, Washington, St Louis. The only somewhat quality win there is Green Bay and that was almost three months ago. Not a single other decent win. Their losses? Seattle, Indy, Carolina, New Orleans. Or in other words...every time they have stepped up in competition since Opening Day, they have lost.  A big reason for that is Kaepernick. He's just not progressing. And now he's facing the one team he struggles with most. Kaep has faced Seattle twice as a starter. The results: 13 points and 3 points. Combined losses of 72-16. 1 TD, 4 picks. The same logic I applied when he faced the Saints applies here. This is a guy who wins with physical talent. He's not a cerebral guy who can pick you apart. But when he faces defenses with equal physical talent, he struggles. Seattle has that defense. I was all over them last week against the Saints and I'm all over them again here. They have the talent to match up with the Niners personnel on offense (Thomas/Chancellor on Davis, Sherman on Crabtree, pass rushers to take advantage of the Niners depleted O line) their O line is healthy, and Russell Wilson is playing at an absurd level right now. Again, consider what I wrote last week:

"As detailed two weeks ago when I took the Hawks over the Vikings, they are finally healthy. Percy Harvin gives them a legitimate deep threat and a weapon in special teams they were lacking. Their starting O line is playing just their third game together with the return of Unger, Okung, and Giacomini. Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind. He has somehow created the league's sixth best offense (4th best rush/5th best pass) with no wide receivers, a dinged up Marshawn, and three offensive linemen in front of him who shouldn't be in the league. What do you think he's going to do with a healthy unit surrounding him? The 41 points they hung on Minnesota last week should give you an idea."

This is far and away the best team in the league right now. They have the league's best defense and the 5th best offense. They are far, far superior to the Niners and we are getting 9.5 points. Nine and a half. The Hawks should never get points. But two scores (even money right now...wait for it to go to 10 if you can)? That's ridiculous. If you can get two scores in a division game, you should almost always take it. When you have the league's best team getting two scores in a division game? Take it and run.

One bonus play...also looking at Denver -6 / Baltimore PK. But need to see how the weather plays out. Forecast is for snow in Denver and everyone knows what happens to Peyton in cold weather. That's a wait and see for me at this point. 

Two teasers I like this week but focusing on one for the write-up.

KC +4 / Seattle +9.5

If you've followed any of my picks this year, you'll notice I have focused on good teams playing bad teams. There is a huge discrepancy between the upper tier and lower tier of teams so anytime you can get points for the better team, you take it. When you can get a market over-reaction based on the previous week(s) results, even better. KC is that game this week. I have admittedly been on the other side as it relates to KC most of the year. Good, solid team but not great. Not a top four team. More like top 8. I took Denver against them three weeks ago for that very reason. But with three straight losses, the market has severely over-reacted. Look at their losses in detail. Loss at Denver but a game they stayed close.  Loss at home against San Diego. A game where they were leading at halftime but lost their two best pass-rushers to injury. To understand the impact of those injuries, you have to understand KC's defensive scheme. They are built on the ability to generate a pass rush from the front four. They need that because those four guys have to occupy five offensive linemen. When they do, they can blitz from any position and allow their corners to play straight up with on deep safety...which is exactly what they do a majority of passing downs. Losing Ali and Houston stripped the Chiefs of their ability to generate pressure. Without pressure, Rivers had time and he hung 31 on them in the second half. But the Chargers still needed a last second TD to win the game by 3 in the ultimate letdown game for the Chiefs (sandwiched between two Bronco games). Another very understandable loss. Enter last week. Watch the tape and examine the game in detail. Alex Smith threw a pick in the endzone on their opening drive...something he does not do. They had at least six dropped passes, many of them for first downs. They had the lead at halftime and were dominating the line of scrimmage. Then Peyton Manning's 15 minutes happened in the second half. The Broncos exploded. Peyton does what he does for 15 minutes every single game and Denver hung a huge number on the Chiefs....yet KC still only lost by 7. Again, perfectly reasonable result for a top 8 team playing a top 3 team. But all of a sudden, the market will have you believe that the Chiefs are no longer a good team. Which results in us getting four points against a very bad Washington team. In a game the Chiefs need to break a three game skid. When KC has significant advantages in every aspect of the game. It doesn't make sense. Consider what I said about the Skins two weeks ago when I was all over the Niners:

"Griffin might be the most inaccurate passer in the league right now. What was a huge asset for him last year (only 5 picks) has all of a sudden turned into a massive liability (already 10 picks). And it's not just that he's throwing to the other team. He flat-out cannot hit an open guy. He completed over 72% of his passes last year. This year he's at 58%. His mechanics are a mess. Because of the injury, he can't plant on his back foot. And he doesn't trust his ability to push forward in the pocket. So he's become a guy who throws everything off his back foot. Never a good thing for a QB (especially when he's facing an aggressive front like the Niners). His only solution? Run the ball. Which not so coincidentally is also a problem for a guy with a gimpy knee. He doesn't have the explosion he did his rookie year. And that has limited his big play ability, which has allowed defenses to stuff the box against him. Give the Niners an extra guy in the box - with a linebacking crew that already has the speed to track him down/physicality to knock him out of the game - and you have trouble if you're the Skins. And oh, by the way...the Skins defense has also given up an average of 36 points per game in the last six. Total sieve. But for some reason, people still expect the magic of RG3's rookie season to return. It's not going to happen. Not this year while he's still recovering. And definitely not this week against a Niner team that needs a win to stay in the wild-card hunt. Niners are going to roll. 36-17."

The same logic applies here. The only thing that has changed with RG3 is that his ego has grown. With all of the criticism he has taken in recent weeks, he has become Checkdown Charlie. How best to quiet the critics in his mind? Put up better stats. How do you put up better stats? Make safer throws. Witness his 12 of 15 first half last week against the Giants for just over 100 yards. Safe throws, high completion percentage, good QBR. Now he can defend his play. The problem is that when he trailed at halftime and needed to win the game, he couldn't do it. The situation forced him to move quicker, make deeper throws. And what happened? A second half drive sheet that looks like this: Punt, Field Goal, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Fumble. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2013 Washington Redskins. This is a horrific team. Easily bottom three in the league. And they are playing a very good Chiefs team coming off three straight losses (two against a top 3 team) in desperate need of a win. You don't need the points. Chiefs win outright.

Seattle write-up below...

Much was made early in the season about the Patriots' demise. This is not the same team. Brady isn't the same guy. The defense can't survive without Wilfork. And I'll admit, there was some truth to those theories. But look at the nubers. The Patriots have lost three games this year. By a total of 14 points. Three games. Fourteen points. A controversial four point loss to a top four team (Carolina) that they could have easily won. A 3 point OT loss to the Jets when Brady missed a wide open Gronk in the endzone with ten seconds left to win it. And a 7 point loss early in the season against the Bengals when Brady had zero skill players around him and threw for just 197 yards and a pick. This could easily be a 10-1 or 11-0 team right now. And it's a team that is just now starting to figure it out. Gronk, Amendola, and Edelman give Brady the weapons he needs. Talib has legitimized their secondary. And Bilichik is finally starting to churn out the strategy he's so well regarded for (taking the win as opposed to the ball at the start of OT). This is a team on the upswing and entering the part of the season it always plays best. What might be more important though is that they're playing for a first round bye. As it stands now, the Pats are third in the AFC. A game behind both Denver and KC. But with those two teams facing off this weekend, a win against Houston will put the Pats in position to not only lock up the second seed...but potentially make a run at home-field. That is a huge factor for this game. Houston would normally be a concern for me after the last two games against Carolina and Denver. But the Pats have to have this game. They can't afford a letdown if they want homefield. Brady knows it and so does Bilichik. And neither of them will let their team have a drop-off in that situation. On the other side, Houston is flat-out horrific this year. JJ Watt is still a one-man wrecking crew but outside of him, this team is lost. Kase Keenum had a nice two games against the Colts and Cards but defensive coordinators have since figured him out. He was replaced by Matt Schaub's corpse against the Raiders after compiling a 3.6 QB rating two weeks ago. He then followed that up with a 14.4 rating against the Jags last week throwing for just 169 yards and compiling just two field goals against the league's worst defense. Watch the tape and it's even worse. He's throwing everything off his back foot. He's not looking beyond 10 yards downfield. And he's playing like a guy who has lost all confidence. Not trusting his reads. Not trusting his O line. Afraid to pull the trigger. It doesn't help that Arian Foster is out. In the last two games, the Texans have managed a combined 160 yards rushing. Tate has no pop. The O line isn't getting any kind of push. It is off-tackle run after off-tackle run that nets two yards and nothing more. And without a viable rush game, defenses can key on Keenum and Andre Johnson. So...you have (1) a third string rookie QB who has lost all confidence, (2) zero run game, (3) a head coach/play caller that has been relegated to the booth (which causes it's own set of problems...guys in the booth can't talk directly to their QB so Kubiak has to relay plays through a third party), and (4) a team with nothing to play for. Sound like something Bilichik might be able to take advantage of? I'm going to go with yes. Getting a top four team against a bottom three team (in effectively a Pick'em game) is exactly what has made this model so successful. Strong teams beat bad teams in late November with a first round bye on the line. The fact that you can get the Pats at -0.5 is silly. Get all over this line. Pats win by 14.

And a bonus play...if you're looking for some Turkey Day action, look no further than Dallas -1 / Pitt +10.

One featured play for this week.

Seattle +2.5 / New England -0.5

The Seahawks should never get points at home. Ever. Under any circumstance. They are easily the league's best team at this point and their home field advantage is worth a minimum of 4.5 points. On a Monday night, it's worth at least six. So when you tell me I can get the Hawks plus 2.5 points, I am all over it. Doesn't matter who they're playin Seattle has won 13 straight at home. As detailed two weeks ago when I took the Hawks over the Vikings, they are finally healthy. Percy Harvin gives them a legitimate deep threat and a weapon in special teams they were lacking. Their starting O line is playing just their third game together with the return of Unger, Okung, and Giacomini. Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind. He has somehow created the league's sixth best offense (4th best rush/5th best pass) with no wide receivers, a dinged up Marshawn, and three offensive linemen in front of him who shouldn't be in the league. What do you think he's going to do with a healthy unit surrounding him? The 41 points they hung on Minnesota last week should give you an idea. On the other side of the ball, the media is making a big deal over the loss of Browner and Thurmond. I'm telling you now...it won't matter. Drew Brees beats you with four guys in the passing game. Graham, Colston, Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Those four guys have accounted for 212 receptions this year (71% of team receptions). The next closest guy is Kenny Stills with 22 catches. What does that tell you? A second or third corner is not what beats the Saints. You need a #1 corner who can lock up Colston (Richard Sherman), safeties that can hang with Graham (Earl Thomas - who is playing at an MVP level - and Kam Chancellor), linebackers with enough speed to hang with backs coming out on swings/dump-offs (Bobby Wagner), and a D line that can generate consistent pressure (Irvin Cleamons, Bryant). Put some stats to it. Seattle is the third best team in the league at defending tight ends. 2nd best at defending running backs out of the backfield. And surprisingly, 24th against #1 WRs. That said, I don't expect Sherman to struggle here. Colston beats guys with size...not speed. Sherman is one of the few corners that can match Colston's size so he'll be fine. They match up perfectly with the Saints. Seattle's one weakness on defense is its inability to stop the power run game. St Louis, Tampa, and Minnesota all took advantage of that. But if there is one place the Saints struggle on offense, it's the run game. They rank 28th in rush offense and will likely be without their best offensive lineman this week due to injury (Jhari Evans). No run game and unfavorable matchups across the field will make this a long, difficult night for Brees. Flipping sides, Rob Ryan has done an admirable job fixing the defense in New Orleans. His attacking scheme has fit perfectly with the under-sized personnel he inherited. But that unit is significantly better when they're (1) at home and (2) playing with a lead. That's the case because Ryan's whole game plan is built around confusing and attacking quarterbacks. The noise of the Dome limits their ability to communicate. Playing with a lead allows him the freedom to blitz from anywhere and have his D linemen pin their ears back. That philosophy doesn't play quite as well though when you're on the road and facing a team with a power run game. Put it into numbers. The Saints are the league's fourth worst team against the run. Shocking numbers when you consider how often they are playing with a lead (causing opponents to pass more and skew their rush defense stats). This is a team that flat out cannot stop the run. Marshawn will take advantage of them in a big way here. So will Wilson on designed QB runs. Beyond that, look at this team's record on the road. A narrow two point win over Tampa in week 2 (when the Bucs were horrible), a one score win over Chicago, a loss at New England, a loss at the Jets, and a narrow win over a horrible Atlanta team. Not an impressive slate by any means. But what's more surprising is the points they've put up in those games...16, 26, 27, 20, 17. Just an average of 21 points per game against fairly average defenses. You have to face it. This is not the same team when they hit the road. Don't make the mistake of lumping the Saints home performance with their road performance. They should be considered two separate teams from a betting standpoint from here on out. Home/Road. And that second team...the road team...is the one we're getting this week. Against the league's best team. And the league's best defense. In the league's loudest and toughest stadium to play in. On Monday night. With the Seahawks off a bye. With both Sproles and Evans listed as questionable. With the Seahawks fully healthy. And I'm getting two and a half points? Take a moment and say that last part with me slowly. Two. And. A. Half. Points. Absolute no-brainer. Take the points and run. Seattle wins by 10.

See comments for NE write-up...