algoman

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Member Since: November 2013

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replied to Stat Based Algorithm - Team & O/U Spread Analysis in NFL Betting Not a good start to the weekend (ats) if I am reading this correctly Correct. ATS is 1-2 and but O/U is 3 - 0 so far. View Post \| View Thread	algoman	16	December 01, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Stat Based Algorithm - Team & O/U Spread Analysis in NFL Betting "So your system would have taken the Packers , Raiders , and Ravens or do I have it backwards ?" That is correct. For example, it suggests taking Minnesota as long as the line is -2.5 or higher. If the line is -10.5 or lower it suggests taking Chicago, and if the line is between -10.5 to -2.5 it makes no suggestion. I will try to post all 4 team approach spreads, but I was having difficulty copy/pasting my spreadsheet data into the post. View Post \| View Thread	algoman	16	November 30, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Stat Based Algorithm - Team & O/U Spread Analysis in NFL Betting VISITOR HOME O/U MIN MAX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Green Bay Detroit 48.5 52.0 58.0 Oakland Dallas 49.5 55.0 62.0 Pittsburgh Baltimore 39.5 43.5 50.5 Arizona Philadelphia 48.5 35.5 45.5 Chicago Minnesota 49.0 47.0 57.0 Denver Kansas City 48.5 57.5 74.5 Tennessee Indianapolis 45.0 50.0 55.0 Jacksonville Cleveland 40.0 39.0 56.5 Miami N.Y. Jets 39.5 39.5 49.0 Tampa Bay Carolina 41.5 42.0 60.5 Atlanta Buffalo 46.0 38.5 51.0 St.Louis San Francisco 42.0 44.5 56.0 Cincinnati San Diego 48.5 53.0 63.5 New England Houston 47.0 58.0 63.0 N.Y. Giants Washington 45.5 37.0 47.5 New Orleans Seattle 47.0 46.0 65.0 View Post \| View Thread	algoman	16	November 30, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Stat Based Algorithm - Team & O/U Spread Analysis in NFL Betting VISITOR HOME LINE MIN MAX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Green Bay Detroit -7.0 -6.0 -2.5 Oakland Dallas -10.0 -10.0 -8.0 Pittsburgh Baltimore -3.0 -7.5 -3.0 Arizona Philadelphia -3.0 -10.5 -4.0 Chicago Minnesota -1.5 -5.5 -2.5 Denver Kansas City 4.5 -3.0 10.0 Tennessee Indianapolis -4.0 -1.0 1.5 Jacksonville Cleveland -7.0 -19.0 -4.5 Miami N.Y. Jets -2.0 -5.5 -3.0 Tampa Bay Carolina -8.5 -12.5 -7.0 Atlanta Buffalo -3.0 -7.0 -3.5 St.Louis San Francisco -8.0 -10.5 -4.0 Cincinnati San Diego -1.0 -11.0 -6.0 New England Houston 7.5 -1.5 6.0 N.Y. Giants Washington 1.0 -6.0 -1.0 New Orleans Seattle -5.5 -5.5 -2.5 View Post \| View Thread	algoman	16	November 30, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Stat Based Algorithm - Team & O/U Spread Analysis in NFL Betting In a reponse to this message I will post spreadsheets which represent my algorithm's team and over/under spread analysis for this week's games. There are 4 team approaches, A, B, C and D and 2 O/U approaches, A & B. for the team approaches, A makes fewer picks but should have a higher win %, while D makes the most picks, but will likely have a lower win %. For O/U, approach A has most picks while B will have fewer picks, hopefully with a higher confidence. All lines are relative to the home team. So, a line of -3 means the home team is favored by 3. Basically, if the actual line value falls within the range, then it does not suggest a play for that game. For the team spreads, if the actual line is equal to the smaller number or less, then it suggests playing the VISITOR. If the line is equal to the bigger number or higher, then it says play the HOME team. For the over under spreads, if the o/u is equal to the smaller number or less then it suggests the OVER. If it is equal to the bigger number or higher then it says play the UNDER. All picks are highlighted with a color showing what they are suggesting. The algorithm has performed quite well year-to-date, while the over/under has had more success. I will post the outcome spreadsheet once all the games are completed. Feel free to respond with any questions and/or comments. View Post \| View Thread	algoman	16	November 30, 2013 View Post \| View Thread

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