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Three Things the Cowboys Need to Stop in Order to Beat Green Bay

1. The inside run game.  Contrary to most pundits I don’t think that Murray is the key to Sunday’s game.  Don’t get me wrong I think he is extremely important and that Romo’s (whose play is the key to the game for Dallas) success hinges on his play, but the run game isn’t where Dallas will win and lose.  Where beating Green Bay starts however, is the run game.  Realistically, the Cowboys defensive backfield is probably in for a long day. Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb, and Co. have been absolutely dynamite at Lambeau and against better DBs than the Cowboys field.  Rodgers has dominated Rod Marinelli coached defenses (used to coach in the NFC North) and Green Bay just seems to have the magic touch at home on the deep ball.  Moreover, Rodgers hasn’t thrown a single pick at Lambeau in over two calendar years. TWO!  So why am I harping on the interior run game? Simple, Rodger’s calf.  Rodgers will play on Sunday for sure.  He may even be 95%, maybe 100% even.  But the Packers aren’t about to take any chances in the cold.  Rodgers is going to likely be extremely conservative with scrambles and rollouts and will likely play much of the game from the pistol or shotgun. So how do you defend a non-mobile QB?  Well you block well for starters and Green Bay has the No. 1 pass blocking unit.  Two, you use safe formations like the pistol and shotgun and use quick slants and check downs. Lastly, you establish a running game.  Now Dallas is what I’d call a hustle defense. They’re the Pistons.  No one on the defense screams “you must account for me every play or I will make you pay” like a JJ Watt.  They swarm to the ball well though.  This makes running outside on such a team difficult. Stopping Eddie Lacy from ripping off power runs up the middle is a huge factor in this game then.  Now this is easier said than done.  Cowboys fans saw just how formidable the Detroit front 7 can be.  Levy and Suh don’t mess around.  Nevertheless, Lacy had a huge day against them which helped Rodgers a lot. The Cowboys must do better than the Lions did or Rodgers injured calf will be a non-factor.  Last note, watch out for the James Starks curveball.  While still technically a power rusher in my mind, he is more the mold of a Demarco Murray with better speed than Lacy. The Packers like to use him as a change of pace back and he does it well.

2. Stop the Packers Blitz Schemes.  Dom Capers has taken crap in Green Bay for years (in my mind undeservedly).  After coaching a top 5 defense to a Superbowl win in 2010 Capers lost his talisman safety, Nick Collins and playmaking DT Cullen Jenkins to injury and free agency respectively.  Years of drafting offensively caught up with Green Bay and the wheels came off for about 2.5 years.  While the defense is no Seahawks unit, it has made great strides since the start of the season and is top 5 against the run since the bye and top 10 in opposing passer rating for the year. Most attribute this to contributions from Clay Matthews, who started shifting inside and out, the continued growth of converted WR, now CB, Sam Shields, and the stellar, STELLAR play of Morgan Burnett.  Key contributions from ballhawk Micah Hyde (a Charles Woodson type, sure tackler and plays everywhere) and 1st rounder Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix have been huge as well.  Arguably the biggest change from years past though is Capers stable of linebackers.  Years of drafting, developing talent and a key free agent signing have finally given Capers the flexibility to make his blitzing 3-4 scheme work.  Instead of Clay Matthews and some guy from the bus stop playing OLB, the Packers rotate free agent Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, Datone Jones, and Nick Perry into the spot opposite Clay.  Up and comer Sam Barrington is a high motor ILB who has all but replaced the aging AJ Hawk.  Free agent Letroy Guion has massively overplayed his expectations coming from lackluster years at Minnesota and Mike Daniels the packers best D-lineman has helped too.  With this added flexibility Capers can finally do what he does best.  Disguise coverages and blitz from everywhere.  Capers schemes with the best of them.  His coverages never look the way they appear.  Make no mistake the Packers defense is not an elite one.  However it is one of the best sack producing (and turnover producing) defenses in the NFL.  The ball will be extremely cold on Sunday which will make it slippery.  Do not be surprised to see a sack or two in this game turn into a loose ball. The Cowboys must be aware of the blitz.  Romo was abused on Sunday.  The Cowboys must avoid that in Green Bay. It will be around 18 degrees at kickoff with a windchill in the single digits.  Getting hit hurts.  Getting hit when you’re hurt hurts.  Getting hit when you’re hurt and it’s freezing is brutal.  The Cowboys must rely on the run game, and quick patterns to avoid sacks