Baskets_Please

Adding:

First Half Winning Margin Aces by 16+ Points (+265) 1u

LV@LA:

UNDER 171.5 (-110) 1u

Was already leaning this way and now with Nneka out I’ll lock it in. I think the 94 from the Sparks opening night probably ends up as one of their top 5 highest scoring games by the end of the season. They shot over 40% from 3 and went 27/29 at the line to get there. They also had a 35 point 2nd quarter fueled by a rookie off the bench who had 14 points in as many minutes of play. I expect focus on D from the Aces visiting Hamby. 

Adding:

Minnesota Lynx +4 (-110) 1u

OVER 161.0 (-110) 1u

Hence Aces up to -14.5. BOL

@PurpleFrog

MIN@PHX:

Team With Highest Scoring Quarter MIN (+155) 1u

1-2 -0.1u

Been on the road for almost a week and haven’t had time to post. Had some winning days in between so of course now that I am posting… well, if you know then you know. Stay the course haha. 

Tempted to back the Lynx tonight. The total on that game is especially intriguing to me. Both teams have played 2 games. The highest scoring mark for either team in all 4 games is 77. The other 3 scores are 66,69, and 71. So how the f are we gonna hit 160 tonight? 

One thing I do find very interesting when comparing these two teams is looking at consistency between quarters. Phoenix has been the more consistent team, but obviously a little lacklustre. Out of a possible 8 quarters, Phoenix has only won 2 and tied 1. It was tied at 18 after the first in their last game and they also won the 4th quarter by 1 but ultimately lost that game. The other quarter they won was 22-19 in LA before ultimately losing by 23. Furthermore,  in their last game they scored between 16 and 18 points in all 4 quarters. Comparatively, the Lynx have actually won 5 of 8 quarters. In their first game, they won 3 quarters but lost the game in the second when they only managed 3 points. It wasn’t as drastic but there was a similar feel to their second game losing the 4th quarter 24-10 and giving the game away. 

It would seem that all this team has to do is play 4 quarters and a win is in the books. Admittedly, the direction of this team is a little up in the air and I’m not totally sure that they are committed to winning at this point but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt this early in the season. 

On the court, I expect Minnesota to dominate the boards. Phoenix is last in the league for rebounding and o board through two games. Extra possessions should be enough to come away with the road win and their first of the season. Definitely need both teams to at least hit 70 if this is going over the total cause it’s hard to see either team getting close to 100. Collier has looked great so far and should be excited for the matchup with Griner. Looking for a big performance here. Even if she gets shut down, that should mean there’s plenty of room for Shepard and others to clean up. 

PHX@LA:

Phoenix Mercury ML (+105) 1u

Even with the injuries, I feel like the wrong team is favoured here. I don’t really expect Diggins to suit up at all this year and Gustafson is relatively replaceable with Griner back. Missing Peddy doesn’t hurt as much as last year thanks to Moriah Jefferson. It’ll be a short rotation tonight but DT should have plenty of energy for game 1. Time for Onyenwere to prove her worth perhaps? No matter the case, I expect full effort from Phoenix to get the bad taste of 2022 out of their mouths. 

CON@IND:

Over 161.0 (-110) 1u

This line is climbing but I still think it’s too low. Both teams should play with pace. Indy got better this year but mostly on offense, imo. Expect them to try and outscore teams rather than stop them. Likewise for Connecticut, at least tonight. Hard to see them bringing a lot of defensive intensity opening night against last year’s punching bag. 

0-0

NY@WAS:

Washington Mystics +3 (-110) 2u

Went on a road trip last summer and bought myself a new car just before, but that’s not the car I took with me on the trip.  Despite the extra miles and lack of special features, I just wanted something dependable. 

Okay the analogy is a bit dumb and totally fabricated but I’d much rather side with the chemistry and home team for a season opener. I’ve heard Sandy Brondello talk about her coaching process and she doesn’t skip steps. I expect this Liberty team to come together but not necessarily in game 1 on the road. 

Conversely, Washington has an opportunity to open their season with a win against the new super team and I fully expect them to do so. 

Finally, we arrive at the D tier which only has one team in it and this is the Seattle Storm.  I’ll start with the positives. Ezi is an absolute stud and Jewell is a talented scorer. They kept Sami which is great for culture and Kia Nurse should be a solid role model. Mercedes doesn’t move the needle for me but she’s there. Despite this bit of retention and talent, all signs indicate that Seattle has embraced the rebuild and that is really what has them in the 12th spot for me. Whether they want to win or not, winning is not the goal for this team as much as development. I like what I’ve seen from both Horston and Melbourne but there is just too much youth and too many unanswered questions on this team for me to take them out of the bottom right now.

Oof, okay that’s all for now. I imagine my opinion on a lot of this will change in the first few weeks but that’s just how she goes. Best of luck to everyone betting WNBA this season.

As for Dallas, they still have their Cambage in a lot of ways. Arike is definitely not as bad Liz but the construction of this roster likely sees the Wings relying too much on her all season long. I just don’t think good things will happen when your number 1 scoring option is that inefficient. There are some above average individual defenders on this roster but unless the team is ready to buy in on that end, I expect it to be mostly wasted efforts. Burton, Kuier, and McCowan should all be positive players on defence but can they play with pace like this team seems to want in order to empower a player like Sabally? What about 32 year old Natasha Howard. I don’t really see it. They just don’t seem to be in a good position to get the best production out of their best players and the periphery is not that impressive. I see both Dangerfield and Deshields as very one dimensional guards. Should the former learn to score or the latter learn to play make, it would go a long way towards helping this team compete.

For the last spot in this tier and the penultimate spot overall, I have Indiana. Last year was a mess, for the Fever but I do expect this year to be a bit better. By drafting Boston, they have invested in building their team a certain way (inside, out) which should at least give them a bit of direction. Also, compared to last year, their success is not as much on the shoulders on young and unproven players. Another year for Egbo and Smith is great and the same can be said for additions Caldwell and Wallace who were both productive in Atlanta last year. They also took Wheeler from Atlanta who should be a good role model and producer in her 7th year. Mainstays like Vivians and Mitchell are still around the lead the charge too. I’m not big on Lexie Hull and ultimately think that if they were drafting a guard instead of Boston they may have let her go instead of Engstler but here we are. If Boston is anything close to what is expected then I don’t really see any way this team doesn’t improve on last year.

Moving on to C tier, we have Sparks, Wings, and Fever in that order. The C in C tier stands for chemistry in this case, or maybe concerns? On paper, I feel like both LA and Dallas got worse. I also have serious concerns about their roster construction, especially with Dallas. The Fever might have the best constructed roster of the three, but they are so young and inexperienced so I couldn’t bring myself to lift them over the other two. That being said, it would not surprise me to see them finish higher than the other two teams in this tier. I actually kind of expect to be very wrong about one of these teams, just hard to say which one haha. All three teams have solid pieces. Solid enough to finish higher than this when you look at them individually, for sure. I just have my doubts on how it all comes together either as a result of differences in play style or simply a lack of experience.

I’ll be honest, LA gets the top spot in this tier just for cutting ties with Cambage. I genuinely think she is such a cancer and I hope I never have to watch her play basketball again. They’ve still got a couple Samuelsons and, more importantly, a couple Ogwumikes. They also added former 6th woman Hambry and recent champion Azura Stevens. I can’t even begin to explain how much of an upgrade this is in my mind over that Australian barrel of toxic sludge. The main issue I see with this team is in play making. Too much of that is likely to fall on the shoulders of Canada although they did bring in Jasmine Thomas. It remains to be seen what she can provide in her 12th year coming off injury, but this could be huge. Players like Stevens, Hambry, and K Lou all rely on someone else to get them the ball in the right place/at the right time.

Of the three established quantities in this tier, Chicago certainly has the most difficult road ahead of them as far as replacing production from last year but I am not as down on this team as some. Copper is the only returning starter for this team but she is no slouch and we saw that even last year. She is likely not a true #1 in this league but that doesn’t mean this team can’t be successful. The additions of Courtney Williams, Marina Mabrey, and Isabelle Harrison are all positive. They also retain the 33 year old sophomore Gardner who proved last season that she can score in this league. This team got a lot younger and lot more unproven but it still has plenty of potential. Personally, I have been quite impressed with rookie Bertsch so far and look for her to provide efficient scoring as well as rebounding and above avg defence. I think the rotation is a little short but if a couple young players can emerge and the team manages to maintain its culture, I think this squad could really surprise some clubs.

Last, and technically least in the B tier, I have the Atlanta Dream. Compared to the other 3 in this tier, Atlanta is on the come up. After a hot start to last season, they just barely missed the playoffs. I fully expect a post season for this squad in 2023. A strong defence and consistent effort from Howard was the recipe last season but the Dream often fell short in the scoring department, especially at the guard position. Off season acquisitions of Danielle Robinson and Alisha Gray certainly address this issue. So much so that Atlanta has already traded away rookie Leigha Brown. Aari should also be a strong contributor in their third year and behind them AD. Hailey Jones has looked a bit lost to start, but even without her this stable of guards is a huge improvement on what Atlanta rolled out last year and that alone should be enough to push them into a playoff spot this time around. 8th feels much more like a floor than ceiling for this team.

This next tier is the largest. Lynx, Mercury, and Sky are all established quantities in this league. They are all also in the midst of a transition as their core ages. All 3 get the nod over Atlanta for me, but I don’t think the gap is that large between them and the up and coming Dream nor would it surprise me to see Atlanta finish as high as 5th this season.

I have Lynx at the top of this group because they are furthest along in their transition process, as far as I can tell. It started for Minnesota last year knowing it was their last season with Fowles and playing a substantial amount of the season without her. It was rough to start, but by the end of the season I feel like they found some things that work/to build off of. No one person is going to replace the all-time leading W rebounder, but Minnesota has some good pieces that play well together and should at least maintain the grit of Fowles and that starts with Powers. Her, McBride, and even Banham should provide plenty of scoring, not to mention the addition of Tiffany Mitchell from Indiana. Saying goodbye to Fowles opens up the opportunity for Minnesota to play faster and players like Carleton, Collier, and Shepard are young and here for it. Collier in particular should be in for a big year. I can see a lot of players on this roster being productive so working out the ideal rotation will be key to their success, but there are worse problems to have than depth and I haven’t even mentioned Diamond Miller. Reeve says she may be the most athletic player she has ever coached. That’s very high praise. If true, we could see her push Boston for ROY.  ^NOTE: I have heard some talk of Minnesota leaning into the rebuild which would obviously result in them falling down this list pretty quickly but for now I give them the benefit of the doubt on putting their best foot forward to start the season.

Mercury slots in at 6 for me. Last season was obviously rough for this team. They really missed Griner and rarely had more than 7 or 8 players healthy and ready to play. This forced players like Gustafson, Cunningham, and Turner into much larger roles and though it wasn’t always pretty, that experience should serve them well this season. Whereas I gave the Lynx their position mainly for being further along in their transition, I am placing the Mercury here as a sort of last dance season before they’ll be forced to get younger. It’s hard to say how long it will take before Griner is back to being Griner, but rest assured this team will play with a chip on its shoulder all season. At the very least, I expect her stamina will be lacking to start the season. I do have coaching concerns here but I am hoping that all the veteran presence will offset the seeming lack of leadership. Skylar on maternity leave is clearly a loss on paper, but this could be a positive for the team’s chemistry. So much was on the shoulders of 40 year old DT last season and Phoenix desperately needed more scoring and ball handlers. Jefferson should help quite a bit in this department and is an upgrade from Deshields imo. Peddy’s health is also huge in this department, but it sounds like she could be ready for opening night. A big question mark for me is what kind of production they can find with Onyenwere but I’m trusting the experience and motivations of this team to push them in to the top half of the standings.

Just like everyone, I’m sure, the Aces and Liberty are my top two. We’ll say the S in S tier stands for Super since these are definitely two super teams with A LOT of star power. I have LV above NY, for now. Both teams are integrating new talent but LV maintained more of a core. The big loss for them is Hambry but obviously Parker and Clark more make up for it. 4 of 5 starters from last year’s championship right back in the starting lineup. The Liberty will have far more work to do with Stew, Jones, Thornton, and Vandersloot. If NY can get all these talented pieces to click, I think we could be looking at an incredible season for Ionescu and I would easily move them up. For now, that #1 spot goes to the champs. Respect those that have done it before. Not too much else to say about it for now. Wait and see how the chemistry develops on these super teams. For what it’s worth, I think that New York has the better pieces and we could very well see Ionescu in MVP conversation when she accumulates multiple triple doubles by the end of the season. The pick and roll game with her and Stew has got to be the most dangerous pairing on paper this season.

If those 2 are the S-tier, then Mystics and Sun are my A-Tier. This probably does a poor job of illustrating the gap between them though. Realistically, it is probably going to take injuries or some serious chemistry issues to keep us from seeing an S-tier matchup for the championship but with 40 games to play, a lot can happen. If one of those teams falls, I expect one of these two to take their place. With that in mind, I’ll say the A in A tier stands for “Able”. I don’t think it’s likely either of these teams makes it to the finals but they are certainly able. Alternates could work too because it’s just really difficult to see any team outside of these top four reaching the finals. Once again, Washington gets the higher spot on my list for keeping more of their core group together. Another year for Austin could be huge and I like the addition of Sykes. Rookie Li Meng looks like she could provide some value as an extra ball handler and scoring from the guard position. We’ll have to wait and see if her game translates. I also have hopes (however silly) that they can harness the wild energy of Emily Engstler. Her efforts, however erratic, were often wasted in Indiana last season. She is the type of player to win a few possessions for her team in minimal minutes played and those possessions could make an actual difference on a team like Washington. She’s got a great role model now in EDD.

Connecticut, on the other hand, lost Jonquey Kong, Courtney Williams and Jasmine Thomas. It’s also worth noting that Bonner is now 36 but BeccAllen slots in as a fine replacement. Sun played most of last season without J Thomas so they already sort of know how to play without her. At times last season, Brionna Jones looked unstoppable. I’m excited to see her in a starting role. Nelson-Ododa is one of the only people I enjoyed watching in LA last year. With those two, I expect the Sun to maintain a pretty strong 1-2 punch down low. As for replacing Courtney, Con looks to Tiffany Hayes. Not too worried about the vet scoring as long as the legs can keep pace. If this team gets anything from its rookies, a top 4 finish seems guaranteed.

I’m copying this from a note on my phone. Apologies if there are some formatting issues or typos as a result. 

Subject to (basically guaranteed to) change:

1. Aces - S
2. Liberty - S
3. Mystics - A
4. Sun - A
5. Lynx - B
6. Mercury - B
7. Sky - B
8. Dream - B
9. Sparks - C
10. Wings - C
11. Fever - C
12. Storm - D