BetNotRoulette

Just one small bet to enjoy tonight´s final which I believe has decent value:

Nadal to win 3-2 against Djokovic @6 (Ladbrokes) 2/10

Conditions will favour another long and grueling match. Forecast for 17pm in NYC is: Around 22ºC, 51% humidity, 9mph wind (which get more noticeable in Arthur Ashe court) and as time goes by, it will get cooler and more humid, balls will get heavier and conditions slower, which will favour longer and exhausting rallies. If match goes to the distance, into a fifth set, I believe Nadal has a clear edge mainly because of confidence (16 matches won in a row) and also Nole could get tired earlier than Rafa because of his match against Stan Wawrinka.

An advice for today´s junior singles final:

Kokkinakis to beat Coric @1.80 (Pinnacle)  4/10

I like both players and I don´t have a clear opinion yet on who´s going to have a better pro career, but I do think that at this point of their development, on hard court surface, Thanasi should have too much for Borna to handle. The Australian Kokkinakis has a big game, his serve & groundstrokes are very powerful for a junior and the Croatian Borna is a kid with a lot of talent and who knows how to keep the ball in play but his shots don´t have the same weight than his rival´s, so I can see him being overpowered today in many points. These two already played in Australian Open SF´s and Thanasi won easily 6-3 6-2, both have developed their games since then, but I still expected Kokkinakis to be priced around @1.55-@1.60 so these 1.80 odds are pretty appealing to me

YTD: 77-129-2 +98.87 units
Staked: 686; Returned: 784.87; ROI: 14.41%

Still checking all props offered, back at lunch time if I see something worth a bet. GL folks

YTD: 76-128-2 +90.87 units
Staked: 680; Returned: 770.87; ROI: 13.36%

Three props where I see value grouped in two small bets for today:

Djokovic to win 3-2 against Wawrinka @7 (Lads) and total match tiebreaks two or more @6 (WH) (2/10 each for a total of a 4/10 bet)

Today will be a sunny day in NYC, wind won´t be strong and this should favour servers and make players hold easier. I expect a close match between Djokovic and Wawrinka, but I didn´t take Stan to win, because I think he will come up short. Beating an out of form Murray is one thing and taking out Djokovic in a SF of a Grand Slam is another. Took instead Djokovic to win in 5 and WH has come up with the same odds for two or more tie-breaks than usual, but I do think in USO (final set tie-break) these odds should be lower, specially in dry and sunny conditions.

Nadal vs Gasquet first set correct score Nadal 7-6 @11 or Gasquet 7-6 @23 (Ladbrokes)  (1.25/10 and 0.75/10 each for a total of a 2/10 bet)

Small bet here. Gasquet could be competitive for a while if he turns up in the same aggressive mode he did against Ferrer. I think first set will be closer than people think, although that I believe that even if RG clinches it, Nadal will eventually steamroll him. These two have played two tiebreakers, both in the first set and both have been won by Gasquet.

GL folks

Azarenka to win 2-1 against Pennetta @5  (William Hill)  3/10

Vika still not convincing 100% to me and Flavia has played great tennis in patches, I believe she´s good enough to make at least one set very close, with a bit of luck, she will clinch it.

Williams to win 2-1 against Li @5   (William Hill)   3/10

Serena hasn´t been tested and Li is one of the few that can do that. Defeating Serena should be too much to ask her, but she´s well capable of taking a set imo.