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Portland looks like they just aren't going to make this that close today... So Houston would need to win by 5 for a wash and 6 for a win. As long as it doesn't come down to the wire, with free throw, games are usually decided by more than that. What does everyone think?
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bettinbig5 | 8 |
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Also, on the Yanks game, Stros took the first two so I feel much more comfortable because I doubt they will be able to make it 3 in a row.
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bettinbig5 | 2 |
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CIN -111 - Have to back the better pitcher here at home. Lynn didn't have a great spring and think this is good value.
COL -107 - Morales had a good spring and Turner is still a bit of a disappointment. Trust the Rockies bats more and think that if this game was a bit later in the year, it would be more of a -130 line. Good value again. WASH -143 - Love Zimmerman and think the Nats win 90+ games this year. This will be one of them... DET -155 - Lot of chalk, but Anibal has owned the Royals. Ventura could be pretty solid this year, but in the early going I have to side with the Tigers here. Note: First if 1st 5 is under -162 or so, I would rather take that (Tigers bullpen have been their undoing past few years) Min +130 - I think that Quintana is more solid than Hughes, but you can't argue Hughes results in the past against the White Sox. NYY -141 - Not much to say here, but the Yankees have owned the Astros in past few years and I'll still always back them against the Astros as long as it doesn't get too pricey. |
bettinbig5 | 2 |
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Based on the Knicks poor defense and back to back games after a terrible performance I might suggest the GSW TT Over 102.5, rather than the over 199.5
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Unstoppable Force | 39 |
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Ibaka had it sealed by the end of the 3rd, Stephenson missed his total mostly due to foul trouble, Young wasn't even close, Kyrie just hit his total by one, Dwight Howard missed his total by one, Deng couldn't muster a reb or ast in a quarter and a half missing by 3, and the Jazz and Bobcats hit the under team totals easily.
All in all, not a bad day, but a little unlucky based on circumstances. I'll have more NBA prop picks after the Superbowl. Can't wait for tomorrow! |
bettinbig5 | 6 |
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Also want to give two team totals for the late games...
Bobcats under 98 -110 Jazz under 97 -110 |
bettinbig5 | 6 |
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Found 3 good props for the Cle-Hou game...
Kyrie over 20.5 pts -125 Deng over 8.5 Reb+Ast -110 Howard over 32.5 pts+reb +130 |
bettinbig5 | 6 |
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Hayward had a terrible shooting night last night but was very active as expected everywhere else. Tonight, I am going to pick a player who fills up the state sheet basically every game as my top bet.
Lance Stephenson over 31.5 pts+ reb+ ast -105 Next, I like Serge Ibaka reb+blk over 11.5 -115 Finally, Thaddeus Young pts+reb over 24.5 -105 GL everyone |
bettinbig5 | 6 |
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The best remaining prop IMO is Gordon Hayward over 27 pts+,reb,+ ast. =115. Unless they are elite point guards, pgs tend to struggle scoring against the Warriors and Curry. This leads me to believe that Burk won't score that much, and considering that Favors is generally the only other player that usually can score 20 pts., most of the scoring burden will be left to Hayward. If the Jazz are going to attempt to keep up with the Warriors, the ball will need to be facilitated a lot through Hayward. I look for him to have close to this number midway through the 3rd. Good luck.
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bettinbig5 | 6 |
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I have come to the realization that the NBA is very hard to bet on. I do well with teasers, but ATS is far more difficult than baseball or football. I am probably going to stick with basketball props the rest of the season for the most part. I can confidently say that I have the ability to hit props at a 60-70% rate. With that said, I will be popping on here and giving my prop picks after I decide to bet them. I may forget some days or be busy, but I'll try to hop on here and help you guy out. I'll be giving my prop bets for this evening in a little while. Good luck everyone! Already took Dirk over 23.5 points, which was the best one today in my opinion and is looking good so far...
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bettinbig5 | 6 |
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I didn't want to curse myself so I waited till the game was over to respond. I expected the Grizz to win by double digits and was thinking that the line would be closer to -8. Granted, it was in Sac this time, but they aren't even .500 at home and Memphis is above .500 on the road. In addition to that, last game they had a completely healthy Rudy happy and Cousins played as well (22 and 17 I believe). Grizz have been playing well recently and should be money ATS for their backers for short lines against bad teams like this for the foreseeable future.
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bettinbig5 | 5 |
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Gotta be a lot of action on the Grizz with this short line, yet it keeps dropping? Every time I see stuff like this, the dog seems to win. I am just having a hard time yet again seeing that happen? Is this a gift or another genius move by Vegas?
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bettinbig5 | 5 |
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created a topic
HELP me FIND the BEST way (through props) to hedge a -7 (ties win) Broncos last leg of pleaser
in NFL Betting
It was a 4 game pleaser for a little over $20. Now I can win $900 if Denver wins by 7 or more. Not sure if this is going to happen so I want to play it a little safe. Some ones I like are Seattle wins by 1-9 at +226, Seattle wins by 10-18 at +580, and Denver wins by 1-9 at +172. There are others that are smaller spreads in pts like 1-3, 4-6, etc..., but I'm thinking that the larger spreads will be better by allowing me to place less bets. The math is a little difficult to figure out what would be the best in my opinion. Throw me a bone here. Thanks.
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bettinbig5 | 3 |
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I think 5.5 is a pretty small spread against an inconsistent Depaul team. I know it is at Depaul and would probably be closer to 8 or 9 at Xavier, so maybe the spread is about right but Xavier has looked real good recently and don't see how Depaul can cover this. Thoughts?
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bettinbig5 | 3 |
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Redskins -2.5 -110 - Skins should be able to win this one by at least a TD... RG3 is looking better and Ponder is still Ponder. AP is the only reason why Vikings could make this a game, but don't think his efforts will be enough.
Eagles Pk +100 - Eagles looked real good last week (I know it was just the Raiders), however Packers are going to have some issues without Rogers. Great value here. Rams +11 - 135 - Luck isn't the same quite yet without Wayne. Rams have been playing good D recently and with the rise of Stacy, they should be able to keep it close and probably lose by a TD. Taking 11 pts myself as a precaution though since I am parlaying these games as well. Taking just the +9.5 still has good value though in my opinion. Just been burned too many times so taking the safe route. Lions -1 -125 - I think the Lions will most likely win by a TD. Big Bears fan, but know McCown is playing over his head and won't be able to keep up with Stafford. Same as the Rams game in that I am comfortable with the -2.5 spread at -110, just taking this for my parlay. Good luck everyone! |
bettinbig5 | 1 |
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Money in the bank. Hit 5 big teasers this week including this one. Good luck on the Sunday and Monday night games everyone!!!
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bettinbig5 | 11 |
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This game worried me a little because Dalton hasn't been that great and Stafford can be pressured into bad games unexpectedly sometimes. I still think that a 17-14 game is kind of a low expectation for these offenses. Keep in mind, these teams throw a hell of a lot more than they run, which should save some clock to hit that over. I wasn't about to take the under for this teaser either because at the same time, it wouldn't be shocking to see a high scoring game if these offenses bust out like they are capable of.
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bettinbig5 | 11 |
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Ravens - Everyone is on the Steelers, but Ravens have Jones back, which should defintely help. Also, they are just the better team this year. Steelers won last week, but they are still a mess.
Bears - Love the pickem against a Skins team that hasn't shown much of anything this year. Bears D / special teams will score a td again and hopefully Cutler will step up enough to outscore RG3 in what seems to be a high scoring affair. Carolina - 7 - I think that Cam is starting to break out of his funk and that D should crush Bradford. Browns - Packers under 45 - I think this will be more of a defensive game. Cobb isn't there to help on returns either, so field positioning won't be as good for the Pack as usual. Ravens - Steelers under 41 - I see more of a 21-17 game here. These are usually physical, low scoring games... NYG -3 - At home, against a bad Vikings team... they need a win at some point and this is it. |
bettinbig5 | 3 |
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5dimes offers these... I do feel like when i do 15 games, I usually get 13 or 14 right. Have the records to show it too. Have hit a few in the past month though and a ton of 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 game ones. I almost ALWAYS tease the dogs and try to get in the high 20s or low 30s on overs (unless I think the game can easily hit high 40s or in the 50s in which case I'll take the over 34.5 like the Bears Skins game).
In general though, if i am doing teasers like this, I will try to avoid mid 30s overs in teasers because there are usually better options and always those games where you think it's easy and its a defensive battle (like the Chargers/Colts game last week and the Packers/Ravens the other week). Obviously there is always tremendous value though in games that only have hit 28 or something like that as long as it is two teams that are not really capable of putting up goose eggs. For the unders, i am looking for lows 50s at worst and two squads that are both very capable defensively or that have been struggling recently offensively. Tough division games or rivals that tend to have tighter defensive games regardless of offensive talent are good for the unders too here. |
bettinbig5 | 11 |
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I actually have done very well with large teasers. I do have a 15 game here and I know some people think I am burning money, but i do hit 10 plus game teasers often enough to be very profitable. Here it is and would love to have some people weigh in on it.
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bettinbig5 | 11 |
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