bigcountry26

Quote Originally Posted by BCap888:

Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:

I gave up on systems along time ago, I even gave up on handicapping.   After years of spending time crunching numbers and stats all day or all week to find a few value plays I got tired. 

I have spreadsheets that create lines and they're pretty accurate.  The last few years I have been running my numbers, then watching for news and injuries on the games where the line is off.  Then my final step was to watch for reverse line moves, if the move was against me I'd pass the game, if it was for my team or there was no odd move I'd lay on it. 

Then I started seeing how the line moves alone were bringing in winners.  Reverse moves of 1 point or more bring in a lot of pay offs and  30 cents or more on hockey and baseball. 

Now all do is pick out those moves then do my research to see why it moved and if there is no major injury or situation it's a play. 

There is more to it, it's really kind of an art form.  It's all about the lines, when they make the lines they factor in everything you can ever think of, plus you have groups of handicappers adjusting them.  It's nearly impossible to find an error no matter how good you think you are.  

I've been honing my skills for 20 years and using bankroll management etc etc.  Only to grind out small profits over and over  and also a few losing seasons averaged in.   After all that, in the last 3 years I've been on reverse line moves and winning.   It's that simple but a bit complex, but going where the money is will take you to the money.