bk_widows

home cookin, a hot offensive hand, and revenge all favor terps in this key big 10 matchup but none of it's enough to scare me off the doggie catching 4.5 in what i see as a one-possession game, if there's a hill to die on it's this one IMO...

im taking the better D, the deeper rotation, the better coach, and the road-hardened (6-2) resume...

both sides in winning form, maryland is bludgeoning people but the difference for me is state holding its last 3 opponents (illini, purdoo, maize-n-blew) to 65 or less; defence travels, offence unravels...

HC izzo has his team within striking distance of a record-tying 11th conference crown, this is a seasoned group well-prepared and motivated for what looms as a hostile but entirely manageable moment

PICK: SPARTY +4.5

whatever path u choose break a leg every1 letz do it to the shyz b4 they do it to us

had a shot, bucket short, scratch my back with a chainsaw

OVAH 159.5 = loozah

naturally i could be wrong but the spirit of the Big O (roy orbison not oscar robertson) is whispering to me that they couldn't have set this total high enough to send me cowering into a corner...

roy of course scored one of his early major global hits, an oracle's prescient tribute way back in '63 to the '24-'25 hawkeyes D: Blew By You...

sweet hay-zoos, the ducks on their swing thru michigan averaged 75 points, now they're confronted by a set of swinging doors? no need to twist my arm that hard...

zero concerns with host's O, off a 2-game roadie scoring 84 @ rutgers (W) and 75 vs maryland (101-75 L) im betting franny mac turns 'em loose to put on a show of pyrotechnics for the partisans...

it's late in the season... these teams are what they are...caveat emptor of course but can't for the life of me see how this one doesn't reach the 160s

PICK: OVAH 159.5 @ $1.90 (total has dropped, vegas trolling for undah action, no worries IMO, it's a snipe hunt...break a leg every1 let's do it to the shyz b4 they do it to us)

74-61 final

UNDAH 155.5 = winnah

always nice when a plan falls into place

not since the unterseeboots of a formidable Reich (the realm, not frank) ruled the north atlantic in the early months of wwDeuce has regression been so eagerly anticipated...

home rims have been uber host-friendly, UMass under the ever-mellow frank martin has shot 45 per cent L2 recording Ws vs dayton and lasalle pouring in 76 and 82 points respectively...not sustainable IMO and if visiting jorge adheres to a 'D travels-O unravels' mantra then im betting we see a sum somewhere in the mid- to upper 140s...

caveat emptor, it didn't happen last time out @ GMU which ran up 80 points on GW but in previous 2 roadies jorge surrendered a much more palatable 67 and 66 so im thinking they have the capability to restore a semblance of defensive order in this spot...

FWIW these two sides have fallen short of posted total in 6 of last 7 meetings dating to '19, including both meetings a yr ago...

PICK: UNDAH 155.5

break a leg whatever path u choose let's do to the shylocks b4 they do to us

taking aim at prop dartboard for this matchup, robert thomas is on nice run, 5-game point streak, two goals + six helpers, averaging three shots in those last five and overall sitting nicely at almost a point-a-game pace with 39 thru 42 starts for bluenote...

all that and thomas conveniently flies under offensive radar on squad that features sniper tarasenko plus buchnevich and upstart kyrou, throw in saad barbashev and o'reilly and you have multiple guys the goal stats say are more of a threat...but...he's connected in previous two starts vs sabres and in four career meetings has six points, solid player, excellent instincts, trusted two-way performer for berube seeing 18-20 minutes of icetime during last five...

worth a throw for me at this longshot price, at home, plus he's enjoyed some decent success vs this opponent

PICK: THOMAS to score anytime, 1 unit, +425

break a leg every1 let's do it to the shyz b4 they do it to us

3-3 ytd trending downward so caveat emptor...

loozah on the skinner prop, jeff got in just under 14 minutes, managed one shot, his yr+-long funk continues...

on to this evening...

wild's parise called avs "the class of the league" after last nite's 5-1 thumping, maybe zack's hoping it goes to their heads...wild has one hope IMO and thats to slow this baby down to a walk and by that i mean a geriatric walk, at least they don't have to worry about entertaining the home partisans so it's trap trap trap, dump dump dump, counter-punch, maybe find a miracle and make off like bandits in 2nd of 4 straight meetings...

i don't see it happening...minny's back end just got thinner, they lost dumba who heads to IR, plus foligno sits due to covid concerns, that means reinforcements we've never heard of get SOS call off taxi squad...meanwhile reports are that cam talbot is healthy and ready to go in the minnesota corded cottage, welcome back cam and good luck with that...

in addition to all their imposing guns up front, avs i feel have the best young D in the NHL, freewheeling bunch who bolster attack, they move the biscuit, latest addition is rookie bowen, turned 19 in june, has size, wheels and fer cryin out loud he's already playing 20 effective minutes a nite...

stranger things have happened of course, dean evason in the game-scheming dept. could turn into the david copperfield of coaches, but if colorado's heads are in the right place my crystal ball tells me they roll again here

PICK: AVS -1.5 (+170)

break a leg every1 letz lite a fuse under the shyz b4 they bomb us to oblivion

ytd 3-2

im hoping quinn's breakfast went down the wrong way this morning, that nyr loss sits squarely (sort of) on top of his pointy head, up 4-3 in third, pitt's lost yertanother D in letang, all they need is for the freakin goalie to make a save or two but it's the wrong goalie because quinn has this outdated notion that u have to keep everybody happy...

well, the result is they lose the game (to crosby in OT no less) and nobody's happy, im convinced czar igor would have won made the late saves, stop thinking so much quinn you're hurting the team...

but anyway...

any jeff skinner sightings lately? scoreless in first 9, only 14 in 59 games a yr ago coming off 40-goal season, soon to appearing on a milk carton near you...

fair question: how does a 28-yr-old with nice career pedigree suddenly fall off the face of the earth...

but IMO, an even better question is what are the chances he shows up today?

answer: good, or at least that's what i'm banking on...

skinner has 16 career goals in 37 career games vs devils, highest total for him against any opponent..

PROP PICK: jeff skinner to score anytime (+190)

break a leg every1 letz accost the shyz b4 they exact a cost from us

@bk_widows

 [Quote: Originally Posted by bk_widows] PICK: NYR ML (-105) 

rangers are now even money

goaltending update...

rangers will go with georgiev, quinn indicating he's sticking with an alternating system...

personally id rather see the czar in there off a big win, he's a guy who feeds off his own success but i'll defer to the coach, as the saying goes if the coach starts listening to the braying hordes it wont be long b4 he's up in the stands sitting with them...

for the record, georgiev career is 3-2 vs pens, 3.75 GG, save% under .900, not what i'd call stupendous

it'll be desmith for pitt...

plenty of time to buy out of home-side wager, personally im not as confident as i was but im staying the course, im thinking the blueshirts  got a confidence jump  vs sabres, they'll answer the bell

3-1 ytd...

nice spot for blueshirts here IMO as home doggie, revenge off 2 one-goal Ls including 4-3 shootout, a game that got away...

even more significant perhaps, that big OT win vs sabres, it could be a springboard to nice run following sluggish start...

reasoning: #1 pick lafreniere got monkey off his back snapping home GWG, this kid's legit folks, he's already playing vital minutes but was staring at scoresheet bagels, i believe his 1st goal is just the beginning of significant contribution...

secondly, czar igor in the corded cottage hung tough for that OT win, he's had early adversity, was down on his game but with boost in confidence and his track record as a winner i look for him to find and maintain real groove..

pens?  major depth issues on D, dumoulin's absence another blow, some lustre comes off their attack due to necessary focus on protecting their own end...

rangers slow out of gate but that buff W helps get them off the schneid

PICK: NYR ML (-105)

fracture a fibula every1lets put a sleeper hold on the shyz b4 they bodyslam us from the top rope

...

apologies, took the UNDAH @ -115 NOT -135...

no feel on side, that's why i didn't play one

@hart31

2-1 ytd...

can't lie, had an uneasy feel about this one so i kept looking for a reason to lean hard away from defence, came up empty so im on these two sides to stay below the posted total...

korpi of the jackets and the finnish kid for sheecawga seem more than capable in the hemp huts, columbus is thriving with discipline and tight checking plus they're not generating a lot of fireworks right now from the backend altho zach and jones plus a nice darkhorse in gavrikov do have the skills to contribute...hawks look to me like they're going with popguns instead of cannon, you never want to sleep on kane naturally but they miss debrincat's speed and i don't see them getting much of a forward push from their D...

im anticipating a 5-on-5 game without a lot of PPs for either side...trends are favorable too: 3rd in 4 nites for CHI who've struggled to produce red lamps in that situation plus jackets are more in counter-punch mode than attack, at least until patty laine and his arsenal clear covid protocol

PICK: UNDAH 5.5 (-135)

break a leg every1 letz pile on the shyz b4 they piledrive us

stellar work

CLB (-115): winnah

unlike last nite, shootout coinflip landed in my favor

still despise that phoney sideshow 

a pox on the league office

1--1 last nite,  UNDAH nash/chi came in nicely, chi ML a loozah in shootout (ty again for that carnival sideshow hucksterish way to decide an outcome, P.T.  bettman...)

but i digress...

im on jackets in this spot,  tuesdays tilt got away from them, they didnt play well but were seconds from stealing 2 pts, perhaps a lesson well learned....

this is a tight group, torts  pushes the rite buttons, leading into busy stretch they had a quick 15 minute practice wednesday,  i think with a degree of motivation to perform better, plus edge in goal, they answer the call...

fast fact: hometown product roslovic joins lineup and shud help provide some added jump...

PICK: CLB ML (--115)

break a leg every1 letz do it 2 the shylocks b4 they do it 2 us

chosen less than 3 yrs ago by ESPN as best franchise in pro sports

preds off OT win over hawks but have scuffled out of gate, 3 or fewer goals scored in 5 of 6 starts...saros to be generous has yet to embrace the concept of consistency...hawks meanwhile have a sleeper between pipes in lankinen, soild international pedigree including gold at 2019 world championships for finland...debrincat out, that's a fairly significant loss for CHI offence, i still give visitors better than a puncher's chance in what i expect to be another tight chess match

PICK: CHICAGO ML (+155), UNDAH 6 (-105)

break a leg every1 letz do it to the shyz b4 they do it to us

great run for roach, he leaves his mark as a front-office tall forehead much more than he did as a player...

solid classy pro, played on some leaky teams, one of the lowlights was being between pipes the nite ian turnbull set nhl record for goals by a D, 5, almost 44 yrs ago , feb 2/77 (rutherford surrendered 3 to ian, leafs prevailed 9-1)...

"...when he rides up on his horse...

and you feel that cold bitter wind...

look out the window and smile...

don't let the old man in"

(toby keith)

RIP