bringit

DUBAI

Linda Noskova -2.5 (-115)

Sofia Kenin +4.5 (-105)

@MindControl

 The trolls like to imply that they have somehow figured out when to tail somebody and when to fade on a match by match basis. I tell them to give themselves more credit since that is technically more like making making good picks themselves lol.

Well that was big. Save 4 break points in a row then next game convert one on first opportunity.

Well their last matchup was close, but that was during her little post-olympic crisis. Same tournament where she dropped a set against Gracheva after leading it 5-2.

From the WTA rulebook: 

"WTA Singles Ranking is determined by calculating her total ranking points.....which must include:

· four (4) Grand Slams;

· six (6) WTA 1000 Mandatory combined/virtually combined Tournaments;

· one (1) WTA 1000 Mandatory Tournament (WTA only);"

So top 6 results are included from ATP/WTA combined tournaments. There are 2 combined tournaments next month with the Sunshine Double. I wonder if Sabs and Gauff were thinking about their upcoming return to North America during their Middle East vacation.

Top 1 result from WTA only tournaments. Sabs and Gauff already have titles for this requirement while Zheng has a respectable runner-up finish.

Iga and Ryba skipped China last year so they're sitting on a SF and QF, respectively, in Doha as their best result. The next opportunity (after Dubai) to improve on this result won't come until Beijing.

Seems like a title in Dubai could be especially important for 2ga so that she can match Aryna's title in Wuhan. And with Sabs now having only one GS Title counting towards her ranking, 2ga could be eyeing for a return to 1ga sometime before the end of grass season. Her PR team desperately needs it so they can roll the logo back out.

@wgomel21

 Do you think Iga -250 (implied win probability 71%) is an accurate line?

(Unrelated to other question)

Top players remaining: 

Iga (Doha Semifinalist)

Rybakina (Doha Quarterfinalist)

Some notable losses so far: 

Anisimova (Doha Champ)

Sabalenka (Wuhan Champ)

Gauff (Beijing Champ)

Zheng (Beijing runner-up)

Notice anything??

DUBAI

Emma Navarro 2-0 (-105) (vs. Cirstea)

SGP: Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 sets & Clara Tauson +6.5 games (+178)

DUBAI

Mirra Andreeva (-137)

Linda Noskova (+115)

Paula Badosa (+140)

So I was on the other side of this. After he did the splits and came back out there looking like he could barely walk (but didn't retire) I quit watching. Was shocked when I saw that he actually won. I feel your pain because watching the couple points after the injury I thought there was literally zero chance he would actually win. 

Did he start moving better or was Stef really just that bad?

And just like that it's over. Sucks to have to wait all that time just to play one point.

Play about to resume with Lys facing match point. But a save and a tiebreak away from a 3rd set. Don't see it happening but would be interesting.

@Calde13

 I totally agree with you on this. Most of the time when you look at h2h there is really not enough data to make a meaningful assumption. If you flip a coin twice and it's heads both times it does nothing to alter the probability of the 3rd flip. If it's Novak playing someone else in their 30s who has played him 10+ times maybe there is useful data there but as you said, it's not some secret angle you found to beat the books. 

Another major factor is that looking at h2h alone often lacks context. Like a player who lost 4 years ago when they were 18. Or a player who is playing the best tennis of their life but two years ago, when they were in bad form, they lost to a player twice. 

A year or two from now we will see a matchup of Kessler and Anisimova and look at the h2h and be like, "ohhh Kessler dominated her last time and she's an underdog???" Again, completely lacking context.

Looks like the Parks match and Bencic match have been postponed until tomorrow. Hopefully the rest get back underway within the hour.

So what's the betting angle here? Kasatkina lost in "straight" sets yesterday, was this a factor? Lol

I'll bet the under. Actually the alt under 20%.

And how do you conclude your men's number at 99%? If that's based on them being in a relationship with a woman then that completely destroys the female argument since if it was 60% that would require a very high number of those women who are married to men to actually be closet lesbians.

Not only useless information but also completely false.

@monkeebooger

 I was surprised that Mertens and Badosa have never played. Iga should be a safe cover against a dwindling and exhausted Az. And post-divorce Potapova is like a completely different player.

DUBAI

Elise Mertens ML (+122)

Anastasia Potapova -2.5 (-120)

Alycia Parks -1.5 (-120)

Iga Swiatek -6.5 (-136)

Yeah that was a complete tank from Anisimova. Kessler 2-0 paid +480. Should've went larger.