bringit

Wow, I don't even know where to start. Intent doesn't matter? Needs Badosa to play well but Sabalenka to get the break? 

Am I the clown? What have you done this week?

@wgomel21

 You taking the games or ML? 

I'm already heavily invested at +450 . Think I might lay off the game spread.

Satire.

Google it

You're right, Rod Laver seems visibly faster tonight. Could be KEY factor in the next match.

IMO these are definitely the two best teams in the tournament. I think I've watched every match for each pair except maybe one or two in this tournament and a majority of the matches that each of these pairings have ever played before. 

I haven't decided on a play yet but my initial leans are on over 22.5 and Siniakova/Townsend. The Russians basically always step on court with more combined tennis talent than any opponent. But in this situation I think I prefer to back the experience of the Wimbledon champions and one of the best and most accomplished doubles players ever.

It kind of reminds me of the Olympics for the Russians. They storm through the rest of the field simply using their superior talent before falling in the finals to a team that features a player with like a 19mph serve but are much more experienced and skilled in the doubles game.

Early break for Badosa. Assuming this rate continues the final score will be 6-0 6-0, which is not good cause that's only like 15 games or so. Sorry man. Never seen a match done this fast.

Iga has obviously been the most impressive player in the tournament so far. She is dialed in but it is fair to question whether she has faced an opponent that posseses the tools needed to beat her. That is no longer the case now though with Keys, Sabalenka, and Badosa as the other players still in the tourney. 

On the other hand Keys has been on a heater herself but a much different level of competition. Her 10 match winning streak that started in Adelaide includes wins over Haddad Maia, Osta, Kasatkina, Samsonova, Pegula, Collins, Rybakina & Svitolina. If she's at her best she can beat anybody and she has been at her best a whole lot lately. 

Iga is the most solid and consistent player on tour so there's not very many things an opponent can throw at her that can give her enough trouble to throw her off her game. But......if there is one thing that can it is something that Keys definitely possess and that is power. Iga likes having plenty of time on her groundstrokes and when she has that time she works every angle to near perfection and we see the kind of dominance we've seen from her since the second round. 

The proven blueprint for beating 2ga on hard is to use power to rush her groundstrokes and keep her from having the time to setup for these ridiculous shots we've seen her making. It's no coincidence that her toughest match was in R1 against Siniakova who came right at her with power, just not at the level that the remaining semifinalists possess. This is why the players who can consistently give her a run for her money are players like Sabalenka and Rybakina. And go back and watch her last year in Australia and you'll see Noskova eliminate her in this exact same manner. 

Keys has a shot at winning this match without a doubt. Honestly there's a real possibility of a Badosa Keys final. Everybody has been expecting a Sabalenka Swiatek matchup but I don't think so. Either one, or both of them will already be on the flight home.

I don't think Sabs can defend her title here if she doesn't get her serve together immediately. Pavly really should've won the last match and likely would have if she weren't a choke artist whose primary concern is scouring Temu to find the most ridiculous satin pajamas for her boyfriend to wear court side.

Consider this: last year at this point she had only lost a total of 3 service games and won the title while losing serve only 6 times the whole tournament. This year she has lost a whopping 15 service games through 5 matches. This includes a set against Tauson where she was broken 4 times in a single set! And this is coming from the premier big hitting player in women's tennis.

At some point you inevitably encounter an opponent that won't allow you to overcome your own serving failures simply by exploiting their serving failures to a greater degree.

Sabalenka's form after coming back from injury last year was impeccable. So far this tournament she hasn't shown that level. Doesn't mean she can't turn it around, as elite athletes often do, but I haven't seen anything from her here so far that indicates she should be the favorite to lift the trophy.

Iga's form here has been head and shoulders above every other player left in the field.

As for Navarro, that would've been an incredible shock if she won this tournament. She's yet to give us any indication whatsoever that she's ready to handle the pressure required to win a slam, or even a major tournament, or even make the final in one.

She can still be counted on to beat some top players, go deep in some tournaments, and be profitable to bet on. But for all the success she had last year she still only has a single tour level title in her lone finals appearance. But that was a 250 where she beat Mertens, the only top 50 player she faced the whole tournament.

If you look at the many other successful runs she had last year the common theme is to make a deep run while toppling some giants along the way until the title gets so close she can literally taste it, at which point she immediately folds in dramatic fashion. I don't think that applies tonight though. She didn't choke or anything, it's just that 2ga is untouchable right now. 

@Blb

 My opinion is meaningless when we're discussing factual matters. I'm not aware of anyone who would dispute the fact that the scoring system in tennis is still basically the same as it's been my entire life. 

When you drop in people's threads to do them the favor of grading their losing bets for them at least usually it's after the outcome has been unequivocally determined.

Do you have more incredibly moronic information you could share with us? Do you understand how sports work? Serious question.

Another way you could bet it on FanDuel is an exotic parlay like this one: 

Iga Set 1

Iga Set 2

Navarro +6.5 games

Odds: +243

So basically you're betting on Iga to win in straight sets but not completely demolish Emma. Like a 6-4 6-2 or 6-3 6-3.

Or you could sub out the +6.5 for over 17.5 games for +207. This would avoid losing on a result like 7-6 6-0.

I did a similar parlay with Sabalenka and Tauson +5.5 which worked out nicely at +300.

This. 

If this match was happening towards the end of last year (when Iga was in a funk before she shuffled her coaching) I might approach this match differently. 

I've bet the Navarro ML at +200 or better with her down a break in the 3rd set in every match so far except for the Stearns match (and freaking killed it ). The Stearns match would've fit the bill too but I was on Stearns instead. So if you do want to bet Emma you could wait till then and get like a million to one odds against Iga.

Riding along

I don't understand why Badosa was such a big underdog here. It was basically a pickem when they met a few months back in Beijing and that was a tight match. I know Gauff's form has changed quite a bit since then but it's still hard to believe.

@monkeebooger

 I don't follow the men's side close enough to cap or make picks. Both Carlos and Iga are elite players on all surfaces, but I think there is a much larger gap between Iga's level on clay compared to her peers than the gap between Carlos and his peers. For example, Iga's current future to win the French Open is -175 and Sabalenka is next at +450. Carlos is +160 with Sinner at +330.

But if Novak has made negative comments or been critical of the court (don't know if he has) that might influence my thoughts some.

@monkeebooger

Worked out very nicely. Made out like a bandit with alt spreads at 8.5 & 9.5. Just missed out on winning another 7k on the FanDuel double bagel prop.

But to the crowd's delight, Eva got her one game and it's hard rooting against such a sweetheart. Big moment for her though too as she'll make her top 100 debut and I'd bet that Google searches for 'Eva Lys' hit an all time high last night. She definitely held her own in some rallies and made the most of her time on the grand stage by playing the role of crowd darling to perfection. 

Iga should be playing the remainder of her matches on Rod Laver where she has been practically flawless so far. She seems to have settled in with her new coaching setup while moving past any late season issues and looks like she's in her best form since Roland Garros.

I don't see how Lys wins more than a couple games against Iga. This will be Iga's 3rd match in a row in Rod Laver arena. She only lost a combined total of 3 games in those two matches including a bagel set in each. 

In the past Rod Laver was known as one of the fastest courts in the world. There are articles from a couple years ago discussing the extreme speed being an issue because it was just so much faster than the outside courts. 

But apparently they've made an effort to slow it down this year and they may have overcompensated. Sabalenka, Pegula and Raducanu have all complained about the surface and say that it plays more like a clay court than it does the other courts at the Open. Danilovic, whose best surface is clay, upset Pegula on Rod Laver. No complaints from the Queen of Clay yet