Cappologist

Duquesne was a Grade A Sucker bet for sure.  This was a situation where early bet gamble worked against me, because dayton being -165 on the moneyline meant books sticking to their guns with dayton.  I wouldve still tried it but only lost 1 unit on it if I knew the line would settle where it did.  Thought it would settle around pickem.  

On the flipside, right when I'm thinking I need to shift away from hitting early lines, I pushed on UCLA because of early line when most wouldve lost if they were on ucla.  That game, I'm fine with the UCLA play, it was just unfortuante wiscy shot lights out from 3 again.  15-30 from 3 will always be an outlier even tho I guess wiscy is officially a very good 3 pt shooting team at this point after not really being so prior to iowa game.  They shoot a more reasonable 40ish% there and they lose that game by a few possessions.  

Ultimately I was up against 28 for 53 combined from 3 yesterday lol 

I assume this is regarding UCLA? Betonline doesnt offer money line on overnight lines.  It was only briefly -2.  That said, I dont do -130 or more on moneyline ever.  That's fine if you do.  You better be hitting over 60% of your bets if you a juice guy.  Hard enough to overcome regular juice over the long haul.  I'm an ATS bettor as a hobby, it is me vs point spread.  That said, I concede it's kind of shocking how often I lay short chalk and they win but dont cover.  Does feel that way at least

not the first time, but fairly certain it proves to be a bad omen 100% of the time when I get a bad number.  When I get a good number it doesnt mean anything at all, but I get a bad number and I'm doomed.  

And I doubled down on this one so it's extra annoying

Regarding the game, I knew dayton would be a short favorite because of metrics, and decided to double down because I think it's nonsensical.  Metrics developed weeks ago have Dayton favored, back when Duquesne was struggling and dayton off to strong start.  Clearly much has changed since then, so to me, the line is not based in reality.  Nothing about Dayton's play this month suggests they should be expected to win a tough road game like this.  I bet accordingly.  

UCLGAY- I see the Iowa game serving as kind of a reset for ucla.  I think they aren't going to completely fade into oblivion after all.  And I still see wiscy as being a beatable team if you really need to win.  Wiscy keeps getting off to great starts then lets the other team back in, before often pulling back away (except you know when they play the mighty mighty suckeyes at home of course).  I want to see what happens if they dont get off to big start.  Think they hit that lull at some point and without a large cushion, I like the desperate home team to win.  Just my feeling on the game.  I had to endure that ohio state game crap.  

gl on the action

1.1 / 1

Ole Miss -2.5 vs. tex am (bo)

1.1 / 1

UCLA -2 vs. wiscy (bo)

55-46-1 +5.39

2.2 / 2

Duquesne +3 vs. dayton (bo)

yep just more disappointment

thanks bros

yea tough game.  Just think Illinois been kind of erratic.  Like they either completely overwhelm teams and blitzkrieg them when they're on, but mixed in are the USC ugly home L and almost losing at Washington.  Mich St consistently solid, and hard to see them getting ran off their home court, so thinking we see the more beatable version of illinois in this one.  

gl

1.2 / 1

Mich St -2.5 vs. illinois (fd)

thoughts

kentucky- I think kentucky at this point worth a play against pretty much anyone at home now with a short spread, now that they're so well coached.  Bama will of course come to play coming off a loss, but I'm skeptical they'll slow kentucky surgical offense enough to win.  Think Bama will have to shoot better than they have from 3 this year.

UGA- I think Auburn showed they're a total beast at home and it was classic situation where everyone steps up in short term to cover for a key guy out.  Miss St also shot terribly.  But now back on the road where they werent great last week even with Broome.  I think UGA should be able to play their game (crashing glass and getting to the line), with auburn weakened on the boards without broome plus being foul prone.  UGA looked like crap on the road against ole miss but bounced back in their next game at home, so thinking the poor showing at tenn wont be a factor, and they'll be competitive here at home

Duquesne- I think Bonnies have dropped a couple games recently because the heavy minutes for the starters are catching up to them and they could really use bowen back.  Now facing upstart team that will be playing with confidence at home here, and goes with a deep rotation, I think will be tough game for bonnies

USC- Wiscy has not actually been putting complete games together recently when you really look at it.  The 2nd half against Ohio St last game was super weak and disappointing.  And I thought they looked super beatable in the buttger game last week but buttger just simply could not score with Dylan Harper a total shell of himself that game.  I point all that out because, a long stretch of shaky play should get them in trouble against a home team playing with confidence like should be the case with USC right now, and the long travel can't help matters.  So like USC chances to clip em here

West V- west v may simply not have the horses without Tucker Devries is the worry here.  But they catch Iowa St coming off the big kansas win.  And again, it's now all 3 road games that Iowa St has been in trouble and had to dig to deep down the stretch to win.  In TT game, tech blew it both end of regulation and overtime, tho credit Iowa St for being clutch.  I'm thinking West V will be scrappy enough to hang in, and it'll be like other Iowa St road games where the home team will be in position to have a shot in 2nd half.  

Pitt- This team has been exposed as not that great.  That's fine.  But here they should have major major urgency to get a home win, and I do think a similar effort to the louisville game will turn into a win here, but louisville is just playing too strong right now.  Clemson does not need this game, they are good, but certainly beatable, ultimately unless pitt does just totally suck now, they should be able to get it together enough and gut one out as the hungrier team at home.  

Miss St- I see this as high urgency spot for a solid home team, think they'll be flying around defensively after couple subpar defensive games, and I think their length can cause smaller miss team some issues.  Great win at alabama for miss, but they were +14 in turnover disparity (unlikely to be  case agaist miss state), and bama while they have lot of size with all the big men, they also have 2 short guards out there alot, not really the  case with Miss St who has the long wings and the bigs.  Just like miss state chances to bounceback and take my chances they pull away enough

9 plays yea this prob wont be great, gona get weird out there

I'll stop back in with a little reasoning later

1.1 / 1

Miss St -5.5 vs. piss (fanatics)

think thats it

1.1 / 1

Dons -2.5 vs. oreg st (fd)

1.1 / 1

Duquesne +2 vs. bonnies (bo)

1.1 / 1

USC +2.5 vs. wiscy (fanatics)

IA/DetroitDan/Fuse- thanks bros

just quick vent, the saturday rollout of the lines is brutal.  Just brutal and slow.  Even Betonline when they finally came out with lines today, only came out with 2 for about an hour.  One was kentucky, which I missed -2 by a millisecond, it jumped to -3 (-115) causing me to panic and take -2.5 at DK, then it went back to -2.  But what was so annoying is betonline didnt realease any other lines for like an hour.  Never seen them pull that crap before.  So I had to keep looking at kentucky -2 for the past hour or so while waiting for the lines lol so annoying

lines are finally coming out now.  Will be putting in few more here we go

1.1 / 1

Pitt -2 vs. clemson (fanatic)

1.1 / 1

Kentucky -2.5 vs. bama (dk)

1.1 / 1

West V +7 vs. iowa st (fanatics)

note- Fanatics seems to be following in the wake of fanduel with early lines, coming out with them a bit after fd

thanks bros.  Hopefully Kelsey showing the team that UVA almost beat SMU will get their attention, because no reason should be close, and I dont think the tight game vs smu means much as uva has had their moments at home this year and it hasnt led to anything

1.1 / 1

UGA +8 vs. auburn (fanatics)