Cappologist

thanks felix

also stabbed at Flashes

1.1 / 1

Kent St -1.5 @ louisiana (draftking)

loss of Kitenge in october for cajuns looks like pretty crushing blow and will require some adapting early at the least would think.  Feels like these teams profiled very similar with 1 top returner each and new guys brought in around, but now Kitenge is gone and I like the look of the pieces kent brought in around davis more.  Few guys who efficiently averaged double digits at d1.  Not really the case for louisiana.  Doesnt mean kent state wont come out sucking balls out the gate on the road but they look like they should be the better team so stabbed

gl

thanks bros! bol this year boys

I rolled with a dog too

1.18 / 1

CSUN +8 @ bonnies (betonline)

I got my annual reminder that I can't use the legal betting sites to bet on New York team games lmao 8's out there but I had to pay extra for one.  Ain't losing by half pt on opening day over this dumbass rule.  St Bonnies is like 7 hours from my house, legit, I have fished in that area a couple times and it's miserable long drive, but yea I have so much inside info on the freakin bonnies.  Total joke.  

anyway, 2 very new teams, could end up feeling dumb backing random west coast team flying accross the country for meaningless game, but, I am intrigued by possibility for bonnies to come out the gate slow, and I really like CSUN's coach.  Guy turned them around immediatelyt last year and looks to have more talent to work with this season.  Roster looks better than last year, marcus adams has good upside for example (orig was set to go to kansas).  I think they'll be respectable out the gate, and I don't really see bonnies coming out lighting it up.  They were 3-17 from 3 in their exhibition game vs D3 team, the D1 transfers they brought in were not good outside shooters last year.  So could be a struggle early while they figure out how to get their best offense.  Have feeling this game will be ugly where points come in handy.  So rolling with dog

gl

crushed pretty good last year, hopefully will again

Not looking to do too much opening day.  This my highest confidence game forsure so doubled down

2.2 / 2

McNeese -5.5 @ sdsu (betonline)

game in South Dakota but not sdsu home court

took forever for this line to come out, f the books for pulling that bs.  and hoped for softer line but not to be.  Think they pull away tho.  Squad is so stacked with veteran players and proven D1 scorers.  SDSU relying on multiple unproven young bucks in the rotation, have a hard time seeing them taking a deep veteran team to the wire 

gl

I think we're probably just F'd brother lol hopeless waste a time

I'm going to have all 6 or 7 of my accounts open to the live betting page when game starts.  Not holding my breath we'll get significantly better odds of any kind.

Uconn is a freakin annoying juggarnaut.  most years this purdue team wouldnt be large underdogs.  But here we are.  Nothing can be done about it

We could pretend to be confident in purdue for attention like some of the posts I saw on here lmao maybe that will work. 

"im large/heavy on purdue tonight guys omg I'm like soo confident in purdoodoo tonight, uconn sucks" big big big on purdue boyzzz we got this

gl brother.  Mine is just a bracket pool my friend runs each year, nothin crazy.  My bracket was not very good at all but only 3 of the 40ish had purdue 

but yea it's early lead or we screwed lol

I think there's a couple theoretical reasons for hope

1) purdue hasnt lost a single non-conference game last 2 years other than the fdu tourney debacle, played tough sched this year, theoretically shows tough to face edey for first time.  or at least shows they are theoretically damn formidable

2) bama kinda hung in there pretty lateish into the game.  theoretically if bama can be close with like 8 left then purdue  could be close even later into the game, where the fact that purdue has more experience winning tight games late could be theoretical advantage

3) in tourney Uconn has faced weak offense sd st, then weak defense illinois/bama, purdue theoretically elite on both sides.  Perhaps flawed teams stand no chance but significantly less flawed team like purdue has a shot.  

4) Hurley is probably so smug right now.  Theoretically uconn whole squad prob all super gassed up and smug right now while sitting atop their pedestal.

or clingan swats edey first play of game to set the tone, 13-2 uconn run out the gate.  live odds go to -2200.  Game over already

who else wins a bracket pool if purdue wins lol  what's your plan?

hard to be confident that purdue wins, and uconn -300 is rough for a hedge

options as I see it.

1) let ride, prob get nothing

2) take away all upside to win modest amt either way with uconn moneyline bet

3) hope purdue gets off to early lead and get uconn moneyline at more manageable number.  risk wiretowire beatdown and get nothing lol

4) put everything you'd be in line to win and put it on uconn moneyline lol

5) if there's a book you havent used offering the no sweat bet use it for uconn hedge bet for option 2 or 3

prob doing option 3 

freakin uconn powerhouse man wtf lol how these dudes out here making of mockery of this.  That 30-0 run in illinois game made it feel like alright, tourney's over.   -300 moneyline lol rough

this thread should serve as a lesson.  I didnt approach the madness with any confidence, set a max loss of 6 units for the tourney unwilling to risk giving back a big chunk after last season.  And got what I deserved.  Lost the 6.  Believe I have gone 2-7 for -5.7.  Yea well done.  I didnt even end up liking iowa st the other day, lost confidence in that one almost immediately, shouldve just bought off it lol stupid.  So lesson being, approach this madness with the right attitude, or end up with this kind of sh*t show

but alas, I would like to win another game, and feel more confidence in purdue to execute late if it's indeed another tight game like the first time they played.  While painter has always been a big game choker, so has barnes of course, so some neutralization in that aspect of it.  

gl

lol 

1.1 / 1

Purdue -2 vs. tenn (caesars)

couple sweet 16 losers

1.1 / 1

Iowa St -2 vs. illinois

1.1 / 1

UNC -3.5 vs. bama

awful lol 

NIT

1.11 / 1 (betriver)

USF -3 vs. vcu

Should be very strong home atmosphere, they are super into this thing.  Saw on twitter apparently students were camped out for tickets.  Vcu tough but if they really overcome this tough road game would be kind of surprising to me.  Unless usf has total meltdown with bunch of technical fouls and whatnot like that uab disaster.  Or if they just suck ass or something.  

gl

have some comments to make about new mexico game lol will later

round 32

1.11 / 1

Yale +6 vs. san diego st

dont see why this would be much different than uab-sd st.  competitive game that yale could win.  

yeaaa drake baby! thanks drizzy.  pricks

I had this play below planned in advance, just saw confirmation that thornton will play for osu after injuring ankle vs cornell.  So rolling with it. 

But if I go 0-3 friday, its a wrap.  Will call it a season.  This is not my strongsuit and the books are not recouping another f*cking penny off of me on top of these

Saturday NIT play

1.15 / 1

Buckeye -3.5 vs. v tech

VT was a crappy road squad this year.  2-9 with 1 of those wins being against louisville, so pretty much they were 1-9 (stole one at NC St in january).  One of the L's was by only 3 at FSU, the other 8 were all by 8 or more.  Considering Buckeyes have generally played consistently solid ball since Diebler took over and they profile as a team that would have good vibes for the NIT, I dont see why they won't win at home

gl

drake- just backing Tucker, guy is the man.  Him, brodie, enright got tourney experience last year, think they come through this time

tcu- Dont trust tcu much but still a tourney experienced athletic team that's capable in a good matchup.  I feel like this line says TCU, feels a bit higher that it has to be, so assuming this the right matchup.  USU didnt lose many this year, but all their losses got away from them, like in the MW tourney against san diego state with a similar line on the game.  Its being said that Sprinkle has one foot out the door so possible distraction factor too.  

new mex- one of those comical tourney situations here with one team limping into the tourney pathetically, the other coming in scorching hot.  I don't have any specific memories of the limping team winning off the top, but certain it happens too often, so my guard is up lol  Certainly have significant guard advantage with the vet athletic guards, and brownell usually never makes any noise, so we'll see here. 

uab- I dont understand that bizarre indefensible swoon uab went through late in the season (the rice, wichita, memphis games).   Clearly they seem to have recovered from it.  Definetely have a reasonably talented roster.  Ultimately, SD St just looks beatable.  Poor 3 pt shooting, very high reliance on LeDee, certainly could have lost more than 10 games (multiple close wins).  If you look at the non-conf, several games against teams similar in quality to UAB ended up coin flip type games.  Have a hard time seeing sd st rolling here, think uab can clip em.  

gl on the action

thanks boys

played another for fri

1.15 / 1

UAB +7.5 vs. san diego st

yea really had to pivot my plans now with the Johnnies not making it

I'm going down to the wire with the bracket 

I am not taking Uconn, probably going with purdoodoo stain to win it all in the bracket because of the parallels to when UVA won the year after losing to 16 seed, with the same group. 

Not that I even remotely believe that Painter and crew can get it done.  But I dont believe in anybody, so whats the difference.  Either way I'll be rooting against purdue in 1st 2 rounds due to the potential comedic factor

oh we dancin now brother.  A little light on the first half unders for my taste .. but.

actually was -108 odds for TCU.  can't edit now it appears