Cappologist

Wouldve thought this would be closer to a pk.  Surprising to me how highly the books seem to have the ramblers rated considering they're without 3 regulars right now and still laying this.  Just not buying it.  The players they're missing are pretty significant.  Moore had a 5-1 a/t ratio and dawson was one their top scorers, other dude played alot too.  They really haven't looked good for 4 straight games, don't see why they'd look a whole lot better a day later here.  Looks like a live dog to me.  

gl

32-30-1 -1.32

1.1 / 1

Charleston +4.5 vs rambler (fd)

neutral

thanks IA

I think there's pullaway upside, as both of charleston's losses the game really badly got away from them .  The uri game may have been a flukey extra bad road performance, but the liberty game is what stands out to me.  I remember it well as I took these dudes that game and it was awful lol.  Liberty was the only other high level defense charleston has seen and they absolutely hated that matchup.  Oregon St on paper so far at least, has higher rated D than Liberty, and also prefers a slower tempo almost like liberty.  So I think there's decent chance charleston won't enjoy themselves again here. 

Also worth noting, oregon state is 9-0 ATS.  I actually ended up with a crappier line because of that fact, I was hesitant to lock in -6, wanted to to make sure the line didnt drop, setting up potential that they go to 10-0 ATS but I could lose lol.  But then saw -7.5's out there outta nowhere so had to move on it.  Whatever.  Thinking they either pull away, or the streak just comes crashing down ending with a thud, but thinking its the former.  

gl on the action

Buttgers lol clownshow.  there were definitely red flags this could happen.  That is a poorly coached team, with a really lame supporting cast.  what a waste of 2 lotto picks

sunday

1.1 / 1

Oregon St -6.5 vs. charelston (fanatics)

neutral

Buttger- pikiell should have them up for the game since princecton won this matchup last year.  This princeton team seems closer to mediocre than very good compared to recent editions.  Thinkin the 2 buttger pros will be too much and the mediocre supporting cast should be better against princeton defense.  Buttger's faced multiple teams better than princeton, opposite is true for princeton

then these 2 more gut plays I'm giving a shot.  Risky

UNC- Risky because this could be insanity expecting different results against a top 20 team.  Coach Davis may just suck too much?  This game is massively important for unc.  Far less opportunities for big wins in the acc, one final chance to salvage the tough non-conf and get a scalp.  It's encouraging to me that unc had shot to beat florida despite going 5-28 from 3.  They're not a strong 3 pt shooting team, but that is extreme.  They also keep coming out poor out the gates and fallign into holes in these games.  Thinking that with so much at stake, they will come out with more urgency out the gate, avoid a hole, and better positioned to finish the job.  UCLA obviously solid, but who knows how good, played so many bad teams, they looked pretty beatable against zona  

1.1 / 1

Miss St -1.5 @ memph (fanatics)

interesting game and line.  Risky going against tourney caliber team at home.  I can buy into miss st winning this matchup, memphis is pretty turnover prone and are below avg with D rebounding, on paper that's a tough combo against miss st.  If shooting %'s aren't extreme either way, the extra possessions off TO disparity and O boards could be tough to overcome.  Of course, miss state hasnt been consistent, but could see them playing with a chip on shoulder since outside the rankings currently.  I like Memph more next week home against ole miss, who will enter that game having not played anyone with a pulse in weeks.  

gl

1.1 / 1

UNC +2 vs. ucla (caesars)

neutral

29-29-1 -3.19

1.13 / 1

Buttger -4.5 vs. princeton (betrivers)

neutral

too bad pacific blows.  I dont mind the play there, I thought they would show they're on path to respectability.  They didnt and made it clear they are unbackable.  Appears they just simply can't be relied on to make shots and it's hard to see how that could change.   

I dont know how they do stuff in canada, but maybe coach dumbass should consider getting shooters in the future.  Maybe they play with a smaller ball and larger hoop in canada?  How tf did this prick go 600-40 or whatever tf his record was there.  Wonder if they will move to 0-3 in home games against the big sky this weekend with big bad idaho coming in to crush coach smarts dreams of making it in america.  Hopefully

sword/fuse- thanks dudes gl bros

I was expecting to lay 3 with bradley.  Being home dog may not be a good sign here.  Weird.  I like bounceback spots like this, and Bradley I always see as a very strong home team as long as they have a halfway decent team.  Feel like they came out super rusty off a very long layoff last game against clara.  All I know is, the Dons came out so freakin bad against Loyola last game, they turned it around and got it done with impressive 2nd half, but frankly not sure dons actually wouldve won if the ramblers werent a total disgrace at the free throw line.  This team hasnt played a road game yet, and any kind of similar poor level of play like they displayed their last 2 first halves (they were tied with a d2 team at half in game prior to loyola game), would be a death knell in a tough road game like this

Pacific- I see this as a great measuring stick game to see where Coach Smart has this team now.  When they last faced a middling type Big Sky team at home, they lost (northern arizona a month ago).  That was the game after they were exposed against hawaii.  I think it's reasonable to believe they are improved as evidenced by them coming off some competitive road games against decent teams, and they did handle both home games before that.  Really should be ready to handle a home game like this now.  

gl

1.1 / 1

Pacific -3 vs. portland state (bo)

1.1 / 1

Bradley +2 vs. dons (bo)

27-28-1 -4.09

just went with 1 for tues

1.1 / 1

Lamar -2.5 @ southern miss (fanatics)

Southern miss coach said they expect Alvarez back for saturday sun belt opener, so for tuesday it should be same group that has been extra ragged last couple without the competent vet guard.  I'm sure they'll be a bit less crappy at home but they are lousy and struggling, and Lamar is randomly playing well.  Like shockingly dominant in fact their last couple, on the road destroying struggling teams, and face another struggling team here.  

gl

played 1 for sun

1.07 / 1

Dons -3 vs. ramblers (bo)

neutral

rambler one of the few unbeatens left but its a super soft 8-0, dons will be best team they've seen by far.  The dons have at least played multiple teams better than loyola and should get up to face an unbeaten team, important game for them too with tough road game on deck at bradley.  

gl

thanks bros

man the rollout nowadays between fagduel and betonline is wild.  I ended up with unfavorable numbers on piss and depaul

Southern miss lost veteran guard Alvarez 4 minutes into the tulane game and they got ran out of the building like some little goofies.  Same poorly coached tulane team that is 0-3 vs the Southland conference beat the piss outta them.  They've been playing without Curbelo who is suspended indefinately.  2 key ball handlers, against a super aggressive ole miss defense.  Turnover disparity should be massive here.

Of course, I am unable to find any updates on these guys.  I ASSUME curbelo still suspended since nothing says otherwise, and I assume alvarez is hurt since he sprained his ankle couple days ago and had to get helped off court.  How are they going to not turn it over 25+ times, while otherwise scoring enough with their anemic offense to lose by less than 20?  *Obviously, it will turn out both guards are playing and they'll drop 20 each*

Depaul should be hungry after dropping 2 straight and they seem at least  respectable under Holtman so far.  I was so unimpressed with Wichita in that minnesota game, 8-1 but we'll see, freakin beatable lookin team and this a relatively tough road game against what should be hungry team.  

ASU- Bizarro hurley has had his talented team win as a dog multiple times already.  Why not grab several pts here? I dont like hurley, but can't argue with this year's team to this point, nor the talent they have.  Florida is solid, but who's the best team they've faced, mediocre FSU?  Don't see why this won't be competitive, they've barely been challenged.  Really dont see this game being easy for them.  

1.1 / 1

Ole Miss -19 vs. southern miss (bo)

neutral ct

1.1 / 1

Arizona St +8.5 vs. florida (bo)

1.1 / 1

Depaul -2.5 vs. wichita (bo)

hate the fagduel 120 juice but the line plopped out  at +2 on betonline so had to make a decision 

I think illinois will be inconsistent and they're young and all that but...tennessee with the #1 rank target on their back, probably not a true #1 quality type team, and they haven't really had to execute in a close game yet.  Environment is gonna be freakin nuts.  I feel inclined to fade them.  Can't argue with how Tenn has taken care of business this year, but I thought they looked a little shaky against miami last time out.  Also think in context they caught baylor and louisville at opportune times to crush them (baylor off the crazy johnnies win the night before / louisville brand new team first game against a good team were'nt ready at all).  Just diggin the home dog 

1.2 / 1

Illinois +3.5 vs. tenn (fd)