Cappologist

meh juice shmoos.  While yes this money management method will lose juice with zero chance of profit, at least you know where the money is going right? If you donate to a charity, you dont actually know where the money is really going.  But here, you know exactly where the money is going, right to the books' pockets

yea you know first off, it's going to be hard to top the CBC championship as well as the woman's championship games, but this matchup of powerhouse men's college basketball tournament 1 seeds just might be able to top it.

On one side you have them pesky houston cougars, they're really going to look to slow it down you know with their deliberate pace and they're like so old and experienced and stuff right, and they're like super duper strong and physical.  These are grown men and they have a lot of hair on their chests and stuff.  This team won't be pushed around no sir, they really take on the personality of their coach and you will see toughness on full display you can bet your trump depleted portfolios on that.  I closely analyzed the metrics and they have the #1 defensive efficiency, so you can rest assured that they don't take any possessions off.  And you know what they say right, defense wins championships.  Plus the game is in texas, and I checked the map and they actually live in the state of texas and  man, you know, what a special treat for their fans to cheer them on in their home state and you know they're like really going to feed off the crowd energy.   

But on the other side you have the gators of florida, and let me tell ya they feature some great guard play you know they have like 3 terrific guards, and then there's the big men whoa boy some big boys down low, they're going to look to work their height advantage over shorter houston defenders.  And this team played in the SEC, where the 14th best team is better than anyone in your favorite conference.  But whoa baby, those gator guards let me tell you, they're super dynamic and you know what they say right, great guard play wins championships.  

But now lets talk about the over/under.  You know they're playing in a football stadium right, oh boy I'll tell ya what, that can really mess with the shooter's sight lines and stuff you know.  and given the big stage and the high stakes, you can expect some early jitters while these teams try to feel eachother out, so you gotta give under 1st half a close look.  Dont actually bet on it, just stare at it.  

But at the end of the day, these young student athletes are playing for more than just themselves and their prestigious institutions, they are representing their respective cities and their passionate fanbases so they're really going to try to make them proud you know, and at the end of the day, this is bigger than just a game of basketball you know.  And at the end of the day, these student athletes get a chance to make their dreams come true here with this once in a lifetime opportunity.  And you know, at the end of the day...the day will be over.  

ok so now for the pick.  Give me Houston +1 for $500, but I think it's important to be disciplined and exercise bankroll management, so I hedged with Gators -1 for $499. 

Book it. 

Thank me later

I was going to be guarenteed minimum 700ish no matter what if duke didnt choke that game.  This was a fitting end, and fuckin painful, especially after getting crushed by trump all fuckin week.   I think this is a sign.  I was a miserable disgruntled fuck all season long.  When I had a great season the year before, I dont think I was actually that joyous.  so pretty sure this just isnt healthy for me.  I fucking hate this feeling.  I dont think I'm going to do the offseason prep work I always do.  3000 players in the portal, go fuck yourself.  I don't know if I'll be able to actually flip the switch completely off, but fuck.  I really want to.  In case I really am able to stop and dont come back, thank you to all who supported me over the years.  

I always post anything college ball related lol I dont pretend to be confident about the madness, I infact make sure to exude as little confidence as possible when I post madness plays, so I think it's pretty obvious.  I did finally learn my lesson this year, I am confident in that.  

That said...

I am close to being made whole after all lol but my madness stupidity may come back to bite me one final time.  The bracket pool I'm in pays out 65%/25%/10% (not sure what the point of 10% for 3rd is but whatever).    So assuming duke does get by houston...If florida beats auburn I'll be in line for first.  But if auburn beats florida i'll be in line for 2nd, by 1 freakin point only.  And in this pool 1st vs 2nd is pretty freakin big monetary difference.   So if I didnt waste points on dumb shit like picking troy to win 2 games, or have having saint dickintheass mary's going to elite 8, then the florida-aub game wouldnt matter.  But here we are.  Ton riding on these games this weekend. 

PRetty confident duke will beat houston (either houston will complete a choke like they tried so hard to do against the likes of purdoody and gonzaga, or they'll have to play from a multipossession hole first time in long time and won't overcome it).  But not overly confident gaytors will pull another outta their ass.  I do think they're more talented than auburn and less douchey.  But I donno.  

also, how tf is there a tourney going on with freakin depaul in it lol shameful shit

gl dudes

1.1 / 1

Hog +5.5 (dk)

it just feels so doable tho lol

gl

terps/purdue/zona ml parlay pays 64-1 

sunday wouldve been the day to do that for sure lol particularly st marys play, since it was a hot take from b4 the tourney kind of play (obv my hot take upset thoughts had all been wrong) , and they already had looked too weak to do it.  I shouldve faded tf out of that thought.  

I did a s16 ml parlay.  I can't figure out which 2 or 3 of these teams will lose lol but what's another unit donked off at this point gonna hurt ay

1 / 1.13

Fla/Duke/Houst (fd)

gl

yea na that's 0-2.  now 1-11 in madness

I went 3-7 last year in madness then threw in towel

the year before I went 7-16 in the madness

that is 11-34 record in madness last 3 years.  I went combined 347-268 in the regular season.  One thing isnt like the other there

But what's craziest is that I got fuckin crushed in the madness the 2 priors sesasons as well.  I just dont know the exact numbers, I wasnt posting here those 2 years.  But I got annhilated in the madness in the covid season, then I know for sure that I lost 8 of 9 to end the 21-22 madness (distinctly remember kansas not covering the champ game by half point to end it lol).  so 5 straight years getting destroyed in the madness.  

It's completely different than the regular season to begin with.  And I expect it to be unpredicable madness so bet with zero confidence.  Yet I still bet the same amt on the games that I do in the regular season.  It's so dumb and I've given way too much back to the books for no reason.  

I have learned my lesson, and will bet $20 a game for fun or do random parlays or something, with a cap on losing $200 max in the madness, but this lesson should have been learned already.  I got exactly what I deserved this madness.  Deserved to lose every fucking penny

If duke beats houston in final 4 I think I'd be in good shape to win the bracket to bail me out for this year lol but won't hold my breath.  I think I will need that matchup to materialize.  Not certain but think so.    I'd be so fuckin grateful if it happens.  

My final bullet in chamber is maybe i get lucky and win bracket pool and get bailed out lol

i went ultra lamenuts conservative with bracket with all 1 seeds in final 4 , with duke winning.  1 of 12 out of 37 that took duke, but looks like if things go relatively chalky with duke winning id win, duke prob just lose to baylor today tho lol

Thanks fuse, IA gl bros

I like tge angle of marys pace frustrating bama, even tho marys disappointed the fuck out of me not covering 3.5 vs vandy.  If it holds true that marys simply will not be sped up against anyone, i dont like bama not being able to get yhe transition buckets theyre used to.  Of course the downside is 83-54 bama 

i respect csu a lot, but i really only like them against other mtn west teams.   And mempgis was a turnover prone team weakened by being down a key ballhandler, and they were cold from 3.  I dont really see csu’s nice run translating against high level talent team like mary, and maryland bigs seem like a rough matchup for them.  So looking for the pullaway.  75-74 csu win tho

gl

Needed a new thread as i buried myself in the other one, lost 9 of 10 and it was largely all avoidable and stupid.  I always do poorly in the madness, but it was even more excessively awful execution this year lol ultimate example of how I simply cant function in the madness:  i stated in my thread i couldnt back texas a&m against michigan.  But then, I ended up doing it anyway, and got what I deserved

i just want to win a game today, dont even care if its a split.  Just win a game.  I took both the marys.  Am i going 0-2?  

1.06 / 1 

St Marys +6 vs bama (br)

1.14 / 1 

Maryland -7.5 vs. csu (fd)

rough sledding

1.22 / 1

A&M -2 vs. mich (br)

the adjustment ucsd had to make to facing team like mihcigan showed itself in first 5 minutes, falling down 10-0.  From there they adjusted and outplayed the sloppy team with mediocre guards.  I'm more lamenting not getting the line that I should have.  Then this wouldnt have mattered

so frustrating brother, but par for the course for this season I guess

1.19 / 1

Miss St ml vs. bay (br)

not managing to get +3 on ucsd was just another costly brutal blunder error debacle of a mistake.  So frustrating that the line got away, really expected it to come back then it became just too expensive.  man fuckkkkk.  How does michigan keep getting away with this shit lol I wish I had confidence in tex a&m, but lord knows I do not

1.1 / 1

Johnnies -7 vs. ark (bo)

I had thought better about trusting them, but then I just kind of... did it anyway lol 

1.12 / 1

McNeese +7.5 vs. purdue (dk)

totally going to chase that L against purdoo with mcneese saturday lol