CoachFatty

There's been so much movement on lines lately that I decided I am making them early. 

But this game has a serious advantage that I thought I might write about it and review the feedback. 

Spain gets the award for most posts hit this tournament and a runner up for most open sitters missed. Sweden has a serious problem in that it does not score well against serious competition and relies on pressure and fantastic goal keeping. Sweden will not be afraid to run 0-0 to PKs. In fact I think they are built that way. Spain has been unlucky and after rewatching a few of their games I would say EXTREMELY unlucky not have score at least a half dozen goals in the last 2 games. Against Japan Spain was the victims of a disjointed back line that got frustrated by the lack of scoring and found itself out of position more than once. This is correctable. What cannot be corrected is the absolute shit goalkeeping. She's horrible. 

Sweden however have found their feet as a physical team. Denial of Japan any space or time on the ball led was the key factor in Japan playing its worst game I've seen this tournament. Sweden cant do that against Spain. By playing a higher press they leave themselves open to being dissected by Spain's midfield who do not play with their backs to the goal.  If they drop into a low block and play the counter, then they leave the outcome of the game on Spain's ability to finish. Sweden has done that before but this team is much more athletically gifted and have proven they can go 120 minutes. 

Summed up, Spain's offense is due a clinical effort. The misfortune of last game shouldn't be repeated with a similar foe. 

At the time of writing Spain is +119 to score in the 1st half  and +186 to win. I fully expect that number to drop today leading up to gametime. Due to the poor goalkeeping for Spain I'm taking the OVER 0.5 1H.

I lost on the same wager the previous Spain game so I'm doubling down to 5 bags.   

@handycat

@CoachFatty

 I just dont know how to be this....

IF the 1H draw is -110 but the Over is -173 for 0.5. 

Is the market saying a 1-1 draw?

Sweden 1H TT is 0.5 at +110 Over and -151 Under

Italy 1H TT is 0.5 at +206 Over and -300 Under

Usually I dont find gaps this large.

@badlands

 good news is i totally agree with u

the bad news is i totally agree with u and made the same wager. 

i rarely get it right.

@PseudoOccult

 brutal and accurrate