cortezthekiller

41-24 record posted on the Twitter feed @betthprop

Full analysis: 

Calvin Ridley Under 37.5 Yards

Michael Thomas > Julio Jones, Receiving Yards (+100 / 2.00)

Alvin Kamara, Under 57.5 Yards

Emmanuel Sanders, Over 62.5 Yards

John Brown > Michael Crabtree, Receiving Yards (+100 / 2.00)

Phillip Lindsay > Alex Collins, Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey, Over 95.5 Total Yards

Devin Funchessm Over 55.5 Yards

Will Fuller, Over 54.5 Yards

Sterling Shepard, Under 45.5 Yards

Lamar Miller > Saquon Barkley, Rushing Yards (+108 / 2.08)

George Kittle, Over 45.5 Yards

Eric Ebron, Over 44.5 Yards

Nelson Agholor Over 59.5 Yards

Paul Richardson, Under 42.5 Yards

Keenan Allen, Over 74.5 Yards

Mike Williams Under, 38.5 Yards

David Johnson Under, 67.5 Rushing Yards

Jordan Howard > David Johnson, Rushing Yards

Just 5-3 on Covers posted picks, but went 16-9 on posted picks at twitter @bettheprop for a 28% ROI in Week 2. 

Three player performance props for MNF. Full analysis: 

Brandon Marshall Over 0.5 TDs (+250)

Marshall is the new Jimmy Graham in Seattle. He scored 1 TD against Denver in Week 1 and had a second score called back by a penalty. He was tied for second among all WRs with two red zone targets and would have been tied for first if not for the penalty. Hell, Marshall has longer odds to score a TD than RB Chris Carson, and the Seahawks haven't scored a rushing TD since Obama was in office!

Mitchell Trubisky, Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-133)

Trubisky has passed for less than 200 yards in 10 of 13 (77 percent) of career games, yet the odds on this prop imply a 57 percent probability that he’ll hit 225 yards tonight.

Why?

Tyler Lockett, Over 51.5 Yards

Just a small play here. 

BOL

ADDING: 

Quincy Enunwa Over 53.5 Yards

No one had a bigger share of his team's targets in Week 1 than Enunwa. 

5-3 on Covers posted picks, doing even better on picks posted to twitter @bettheprop

Lots of value on the board this week. Here are 4 favorites: 

Lamar Miller >>> Alvin Kamara, Carries

One of the best picks of the week. I'll be hammering this. Kamara's carry line has been set at 14.5. That makes NO sense. It implies a 55 percent probability that he'll hit that mark, but he's never had more than 12 in a game in his career. Miller had 20 carries in Wk1. More - https://tinyurl.com/ybhb48qu

Matt Ryan >>> Foles, Passing Yards

I locked this in at -122 and it's since moved to -164 lol. What a ridiculous line. Ryan does very well vs CAR and Foles passed for 117 yards at home last week. He's not at home this week. 

Jarvis Landry Over 67.5 Yards

It looks like books didn't adjust for Josh Gordon being cut this week. Jarvis had 15 targets last week and was 3rd in the NFL with 223 Air Yards. 

George Kittle Over 49.5 yards

Kittle led the team in targets and racked up 90 yards in Wk1. He'll benfit from the absence of WR Marquise Goodwin. 

BOL 

We went 3-1 in props on TNF. including hitting the John Brown TD prop for +325, baby! We're 5-3 on Covers posted picks and doing even better on Twitter @bettheprop

One prop bet truly stood out when analyzing this week's games -- Alvin Kamara's carry total. 

It's been set at 14.5, yet he's never had more than 12 in his career. 

I'm pounding the following head to head bets, especially the first one. Full analysis: https://buff.ly/2CYmJt9

Lamar Miller >>> Kamara, Carries (-122)

Miller had 20 carries last week. Houston has no one else at RB, and he'll be busy again. 

Peyton Barber >>> Kamara, Carries (-122)

Another locked in starter, Barber had 19 carries and dominated with a 86 percent market share. 

LeSean McCoy >>> Kamara, Carries (-122)

McCoy's line is low after just 7 carries last week. But Buffalo is starting shaky rookie QB Peterman this week and needs to keep it on the ground. 

BOL

4-3 on posted Covers picks

24-13 on player props posted to twitter @bettheprop

Full write up: https://tinyurl.com/yctlu3ln

AJ Green Under 75.5 yards

We  72.5 on Green’s total vs. the Colts last week, and curiously, his line now rises by three yards against a much tougher Ravens secondary.Green has failed to surpass 75.5 yards in the  against the Ravens.

Andy Dalton U1.5 TDs

This bet is chalky at -175. 

However, those odds imply 63.7 percent probability that Dalton goes under, while he’s actually done it 69 percent of the time vs the Ravens in 13 career games (9 out of 13 games). That’s a nice little overlay.

John Brown >>> Crabtree, Receiving Yards

In reality, this is probably a coin flip, but we're getting odds on this bet at +112, so I'll happily take the +EV play.

Sorry, the actual bets didn't post.

to be clear, the picks are : 

Golden Tate Over 605. 

Amari Cooper >>> Receptions than Brandin Cooks. 

Tate went over 60.5 yards eight times in 16 games last year and under eight times. However, he didn't always get to match up against one of the weakest pass defenses in the league like he will on Monday night.

The Jets did upgrade at LCB with the addition of Trumaine Johnson in the offseason, but he'll mostly line up across from Marvin Jones, instead. That leaves Tate free to operate against Buster Skrine, who was one of PFF's lowest-graded CBs last year.

https://tinyurl.com/ydxb3syj

Head coach Sean McVay spread the ball around as much as any coach in the league in his first season in Los Angeles, and the volume won’t be there for Cooks like it has been in the past. While New England ranked first in pass attempts per game last season at 38.3, the Rams ranked 21st.

Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods had 79 targets and 1,639 yards between them last year, and they aren’t going anywhere.

Cooper gets a very tough matchup, but he's the best weapon on a team which projects to be trailing and should get regularly fed. 

BOL

ADDING: 

Davante Admas >>> Yards Randall Cobb

Chalky at -200, but Cobb's role is overvalued. Packers will mostly be WR2 by committee. 

3-1-1 on posted picks today and a whole bunch more winners on the twitter @rotocort 

The "tie" was Cam Meredith not even dressing for the game after being given a line of 39.5 

The books have no idea what's going on with player props. Meredith is like No. 7 WR on the Saints and had NO business getting that line. 

On to a few player props for SNF. 

Randall Cobb U51.5 Yds

Speaking of WRs down the depth chart... With a bunch of solid rookies in the mix, Cobb is unlikelt to see much volume against a tough Bears pass defesnse. 

Trey Burton O3.5 Receptions 

With Allen Robinson coming off an ACL and Anothony Miller playing his first career game, I expect Burton to lead the Bears in targets. 

Meredith Inactive. Brutal work by the books lol

Ah great call. I missed that news last night. This line was already bad, looks worse by the minute.

BOL

ADDING: 

Cameron Meredith U35.5 yards

Meredith appears behind both Tedd Ginn Jr and rookie Tre'Quan Smith, as indicated by him playing the Saints entire 4th preseason game while the starters rested. 

Stefon Diggs

Over 65.5 Yards vs 49ers