countingthedeck

2nd Half St. Peters @ Rider 12:20 pm PST

These are the games with a slight advantage.

Here is the first game with a medium size advantage.

These are the remaining games with a slight advantage.

Eastern Illinois +7.5
Jacksonville State +6.5

Back for Sunday

These are the remaining games with a slight advantage.

Wisconsin Green Bay +9
NC Greensboro +13.5
California-1
Colorado State-4
San Jose State -6.5
Texas A&M +3
Cal Irvine +4.5
St. Marys CA -10.5
New Mexico State +3
Portland State -3.5

These are the remaining games with a medium size advantage.

San Diego +14.5


Back at 2:00 pm PST

These games start at 10:45 PST. Both are medium size advantage plays.

LSU +9
Texas Tech+8.5


Back in a few

The issue about the lines is this. First off my lines are proprietary. I did it for one day so you could see that a well construed line will always expose a line limited from flexibility. Like I stated earlier, the lines you make or i make are meant only to point in the right direction, never to predict final outcome. Lines that are made to PREDICT final outcome are temporary and do not last long term. That was one of the first lessons I got from a mentor of mine many years ago. The lines of Shirley-jester, are strict mathematical handicaps. I venture to say I can state her lines in the majority of games, just because it is based heavily on numbers. What is different from MIT geeks, computer geeks, and old school linemakers is "feel". If the MIT geeks think they can asses values by supercomputer to variables which are of human nature, then they are re inventing the wheel. I remember years ago what he told me. You can make the same line as I can,( because yes he showed me the basics,) but only years of experience will let you "tweak" it. Every year it changes, every team, different players, different coaches different eras. But your "feel" as you "progress" will let you improvise. Something a super computer will never be able to do. I don't care what they say, the mind in itself is greater than anything that we can create. Let them lie to themselves. Just not to me.

Second i will not be baited by anyone to put out my lines. Period. Shirley-jester has been thrown into the box, because as Sparty444 pointed out, and it was clear and obvious, she wanted to sell her services. Her useless attempt at trying to have people "visit' her website by invitation only was not only amateurish, but comical. She quoted lines of a favorite, example Duke-11.235 , lol, it reminds me what I used to do. except that was 20 years ago. There is no such thing as .235 of a point. Sure in super computer terms there is a thing like 11.2356789678 points, but in real life its actually 5 buckets and a free throw. 11 points total. Not 11.235 points. Geez..i can tell an amateur when  I see one, and one of her post sealed the deal for me.

btw...if you are an alias of Shirley Jester, please do not ask to see my lines. Please put in the good 5- 10 years it took me to come up with my way of handicapping the games, and learn to objectively and subjectively handicap the games. I am sure you are well versed in the mathematical aspect. Lazily inputing values into a computer and letting it do all the "work" is not my style. I prefer to let my mind  work, and if there is one thing that always bothered me, its always been laziness.Being from a lower middle class, I knew work and smarts was my only avenue out , and since I'm not the brightest I knew I'd have to work hard. So yes while others claim to use the "supercomputer aspect" or their MIT degrees, this guy uses the good old paper and pencil, a quiet place, a scalding cup of black coffee, and a hard chair. The easy way out is actually not the easiest, go with the proven, classic and timeless.

She stated once that an "interesting coincidence" seems to be happening on the smaller cards like Sunday or Monday. She states that the smaller the card, it "seems" like the line gets tighter. Meaning the advantage is less or none on those days. I knew right then that though she claims to be in the business for 7 or 8 years,  it is no "strangely appearing" as a "coincidence" on these small cards. If you've been handicapping seriously and successfully for 6 months you would have learned that lesson years ago. Not stating 7 years into your career that it is "strangely a coincidence". I nearly fell off my chair laughing and knew she or he was a rookie of "mathematical applied sciences"

Going through schooling everyone must learn to read and write. To write as author requires you to clearly put your thoughts on paper so everyone can understand. Not only what you mean, but the the great ones let you experience their intent, their passion , ideas and their acknowledgment. It is quite different then writing that you learned in school. (The nouns, pronouns, verbs and adjectives.) It is my hope that I did communicate these facts and opinions clearly so it is understood in a betting manner, and more importantly a real life manner. If I did not do that, then again my sincere apologies.

Lastly like I said, Thursday and Friday I will be spending time with family most likely. Not "hiding" after a 3-8 result the previous night, or trying to have you inquire my whereabouts to "join" my "invitation only" website. No it is about FAMILY TIME !! I enjoy the little ones as should be, but I remember what he told me once that I'l always remember. To keep sharp, you must learn to get away. At least once a week. And I've never forgotten to keep sharp. It is advice that has worked for me and maybe will work for you too. One day to get away and enjoy the smaller things in life. It is those things that count the most, especially to one who counts the deck.

Good luck and enjoy the games....CTD

I do enjoy some intellectual banter at times,a time when thoughts are exchanged and criticisms are heard, evaluated discussed solved or dismissed.The origination  of the  word forum  is 'foris" from the Latin  language. Back in ancient Rome, citizens gathered in an open air town square to discuss politics, current events, concerns and the occasional vote. It was democracy at its earliest, not quite what we have now, but something of which future democracies and nations that chose this way of living modeled themselves after. Everyone having a chance to voice their opinion, in open air, in the town square, or "forum," for all to see without punishment or retaliation. Or so the theory goes.Maybe ridicule, but hey whats the harm? You are free to say what you want and the same for myself and the next person.

In my Wednesday post I did mention that I would take Thursday and Friday off, then return for Saturday. Regardless the outcome of any games, whether going 3-8 or 8-3 or 12-0 or 0-12. It was clearly stated. I do not need to bet everyday like I used to years ago, for me it is a way to keep my mind sharp.The monetary goals from this endeavor is not what is was 15 or even 10 years ago. If Billy Walters went 3-8 early in his career and decided to quit, would he have the success that he now enjoys? Is it a wonder that the cream of the crop rises not because they are the best, but because they do not accept failure? From a personal standpoint I think success is what you do everyday, not on special occasion, but what you do on a consistent basis. And that is coming to "work" ,working at it and keep on plugging away. I am no Billy Walters, he who owns 7 golf courses, or 5 airplanes, but it (gambling) has afforded me many things i couldn't attain or experienced without it.

This is my point. If a 3-8 performance was enough to derail me, I would quit and never bet again. That or seriously evaluate that you are over betting your bankroll. If you are on a high that you went 13-2 like the first day, then you are over betting your bankroll. If you thought you were going to be rich after going 22-13, then you are over betting you bankroll. Are you seriously telling me that I would leave after going 3-8 after going 5-6 the night before? Back in the day when the bets where a lot larger, I had a streak of 1-21. I am dead serious I was about to get a gun and blow my brains out. Such is the life of a gambler. Fast forward 15 years later, and someone is telling me after going 3- 8 I would disappear. It is funny how small thinking some people are.

First off, the shotgun versus the sniper approach. If you are selective about games and play one or two a day, you can bet 3 to 4 percent of your bankroll on a game should you hit 57 or so percent. The shotgun approach which we are using requires that you divide your bankroll in  175-200 units. Seeing that on a Saturday you might play 25  or 30 games , you still would  be putting 15 to 20 percent of your bankroll in action on that given day. It is just two different ways to skin a cat. Since we started with the whole card, we will keep going with the whole card, this shotgun approach enables you to go 13-2, 22- 13, 5-6, 3-8 or so on and so on. Rather than the sniper approach, which would be 1-0 or 0-1. I hope that makes sense. So yes while going 8-14 is not the greatest, it also offers you the ability of going 13-2, 22-13, 7-3 for a total of 42-18. If going 8-14 for a couple of days using the shotgun approach allows you the opportunity to go 42-18 on a few other days, is there a reason to back away, unless you are over betting the games and cannot sustain a measly 6 unit loss? If losing 6 units plus juice derails you from the opportunity from winning 24 units, then I say to you, you are not a advantage gambler, or you are over betting your bankroll or power pressing. In any case not a positive expectation in the long run. Just flat bet, i do sometimes make an exception and bet 1.5 units and 2. In general, selecting from the pool will in the long term yield similar results. You cannot turn a 60 percent handicapper into a 80 percent handicapper or 40 percent one, if it is from the same selection base just by luck or cherry picking.

Thanks Tiger18 and Aggie Acountant,

Earlier in the post Colorado State was mentioned with no line,  currently you can find them at +13.5 and at that line  it is a game with a medium size advantage. I will most likely will skip Thursday and Friday and be back with Saturday 30 minutes before the first tip time then. But check back if you like I might post a few in between then.

Gl to all
 
CTD

Here up posted early are the advantage plays for Wednesday, for the early bird bettors who want to get a headstart and beat the line moves.. A prime example of timing the line, or in our case beating the line move, was yesterday as the Wake Forrest and Houston game landed exactly on 14 and 11. Posting the night before, on those plays I did mention my preference on taking 11.5 and passing on 11 specifically on the Houston game. The worst anyone could have done was push both games, unfortunately Illinois, LaSalle, Iowa State and the Iowa State games total were losers.

Here is another advantage play in the totals today.It is in a Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Texas game.

Went 5-6 last night and definitely wont count the early Central Florida afternoon game side or total. I am posting bit early for a few reasons, one I might be one the run and want to give them to you before the line moves for anyone who can bet overnights.

Samford Over 137.5 Western Carolina Over 152 Prairie View - 2.5 Prairie View Over 135 Kent State +1.5 Kent State Over 140.5 Valparaiso -1.5 Valparaiso Over 137 Oklahoma State +17 Oklahoma State Under 144.5 Morgan State Under 141
	QUOTE

Correction on the Prairie View game, if anyone did bet it. I hardly think so. Misreading my line and notes, the over under was dealt at 128.5. I actually read my handicapped number which was 135, about 6 points towards the over, and posted that. So my apologies the bet was 

Here are the advantage games for today. Don't worry as only as only a few start at 7:00pm. Please make sure on the Valparaiso game to lay only 1.5, as 2 is a very key number. At two it is a no play for me, and will be graded as a play at -1.5. Happy Presidents Day everyone.

10 minutes before maybe earlier for the 7 pm EST starts. Having fun with family and friends and playing chinese mah jong for big money now

I would like to apologise to every better who was waiting for the play on Central Florida. But during my celebrations with family this Presidents Day, I was busy having fun and forgot the early tip time. I wanted to put it up earlier but I usually take my time to ponder even though my line in ready by 5 am or so if the adavtages are well enough to sustain a line move. I did make a scramble for the computer a few minutes before tip and gave it my best shot.

kkirby sonny sixkill

Happy Presidents Day everybody!!