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Lorenz Larkin   vs.   Costas Philippou  
Co-Main Event | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Philippou

Costa Philippou hails from the Republic of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. He was a pro boxer before changing over to MMA.  He set up shop with Matt Serra and Ray Longo and the Serra-Longo fight team. Slowly but surely Costa has evolved into a complete mixed martial artist. He lost a split to decision to former UFC fighter Ricardo Romero in his first pro fight. Costa would then go on to win seven of his next eight with a no-contest somewhere in there. He made his octagon debut on short notice against Nick Catone (catch weight 195) who delivered Philippou’s second defeat. Costa would then beat the heavy handed striker Jorge Rivera by close, but impressive, split decision, he knocked out the rubber chinned Jared Hamman with a beautiful punch and then handed Court McGee his second career loss. Court came into that fight 12 – 1, TUF season 11 winner and 3-0 in the UFC. Since the McGee fight Costa has gone 2 – 2 with loses to Carmont and Rockhold.  Costa has recently changed camps, I don’t know much about Bellmore Kickboxing MMA but one has to think leaving Serra-Longo was not a good idea, leave a gym founded on wrestling and BJJ (your biggest weaknesses) to join a camp that has Kickboxing in its name when you’re one of the more technical strikers in the division, doesn’t make much sense but I’m sure there is a bunch of info and stuff behind the scenes I’m missing.  What I do know is that Costa is 0 – 2 since the move and was wrestle fucked for the first time in a while in the Carmont fight.  Thing is Larkin (0.29) attempts even less take-downs per fight than Costa (0.48) so one has to think this will be contested on the feet.

Larkin

Larkin is striker first and foremost, while he does possess a purple belt in BJJ he sports no wins or loses via submission, a testament to both his submission and take-down defense.  Larkin holds a 5 – 0 record as an amateur boxer, thinking he would be too short to compete as a heavyweight boxer Larkin transitioned to Kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and the rest is history.  Fresh off a win over Robbie Lawler Larkin entered the UFC with a bit of hype around his aggressive and flashy striking game. He would put up a spirited effort against Carmont, stuffing 9 of Carmonts 11 take-down attempts and out striking the Frenchman with significant strikes, Carmont hit 12 of 75 significant strikes for a 16% clip while Larkin landed 32 of 82 good for about 40%, even with these stats Larkin somehow lost a UD, I remember thinking it was bullshit when I was watching it. Since then Larkin beat Camozzi via UD but recently looked a bit slow and plodding against Brad Tavares who is right up there with Robbie Lawler and King MO for Larkin’s toughest fight yet. Carmontt struggles when his opponent can get his hands on him and push him around the cage and look for take-downs,  as  I pointed out in Costa’s write up there is almost no chance either man shoots for a take-down here so again, we have to assume this plays out standing.

Prediction - Larkin via UD.

2013: +127.75%

Brown (6’0,  76” reach)

Brown got his start on season seven of the ultimate fighter; he was eliminated by the eventual winner Amir Sadollah. Brown got his nickname "The Immortal" from his friends after surviving a drug over-dose. Brown is purple belt in BJJ and is working towards a black belt in Judo. He is also known for having a kitchen sink for a chin as he has never been knocked or stopped with strikes in 29 MMA fights. He has 18 wins and 11 losses, 9 of those losses are by Submission, submission grappling has been the one area in which Matt Brown has faltered.  He has lost by submission to: Lytle twice, Ricardo Almeida, Brian Foster and a Seth Baczynski Guillotine and a few no-names but that was back in 2007. While he may lack top notch submission defense Brown has cardio and heart for days, has never been knocked out and hits like a MACK truck, throw in good kicks to the body, devastating elbows and a suffocating clinch game you have one very tough fighter to deal with.

Eric Silva (5'11, 74" Reach)

Silva came into the UFC with much hype but currently sits with a 4 - 3 record inside the octagon. This is a bit decieving however as one lose was via DQ for striking the back of the head of Carlo Prater and a second was s fight of the night effort in what seems to be Jon Fitch's last decent fight ever, there is no excuse for the third lose where Silva was caught moving straight backwards and knocked out cold for the first time in his career. Silva has a good clinch and decent wrestling, he is a black belt in Judo and BJJ and throws heavy strikes. He has a much less deverse arsenal of strikes than Browne but probably hits almost as hard. Silva does hold 9 wins via submission while brown has been submitted 9 times in his career, this is something to look for if the fight hits the Mat, Brown is a brawler but he usually fights smart (see the clinch fest against noted master kick boxer Stephen Thompson) so I feel like he will do his best to keep this standing.

Prediction - Browne has never been finished and this is a 5 round fight, I feel like Brown could go 10 hard rounds if he really needed to, I can't say even close to the same for Silva. I've been picking main events poorly lately but I can't help but feel like Brown takes a 7th straight win here, Silva will have his moments but I feel like Brown's cardio and pace will be too much for the Brazilian, also Brown fights out of Cincinnati so he is basically fighting at home while Silva makes the trek from Brazil. Brown via TKO round 4.

4 Team Parlay Risk 14.5% to win 34%

Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal -250

Thiago "Pitbull" Alves -450

Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov -285

Travis "Hapa" Browne -225