Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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Los Angeles Rams -6.5 - W Atlanta Falcons -4 Chicago Bears -2.5 Houston Texans +1.5 Dallas Cowboys -3 Green Bay Packers -9.5 Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 New England Patriots -6.5 Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 Arizona Cardinals +3.5 Oakland Raiders -2.5 New York Giants +3.5 Los Angeles Chargers -10 Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Denver Broncos +4.5 |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Week 3 - more of the same - i'll post one more week and then I think I have to go back to the lab and do a deep dive in the numbers. 7 - 9 (43.75%) |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Cleveland Browns -3 W New Orleans Saints 3.5 Cincinnati Bengals 3.5 Housten Texans -5.5 Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 Oakland Raiders3.5 Minnesota Vikings -16.5 Indianapolis Colts +7 Denver Broncos 5.5 Washington Redskins +3 Los Angeles Rams -7 Chicago Bears -4.5 Dallas Cowboys +2.5 New England Patriots -6.5 Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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WEEK 2 - More DISGUSTING - 6-10 37.5% Taking a deep dive into the numbers to see what may be wrong. Only good news is bets are working out as I don't bet all the plays from the method - but I expect the method to be 55% + on the season - so something is wrong.
Thursdays Pick CLE-3 |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Week 2
Baltimore Ravens -0.5 L
Atlanta Falcons -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5
Minnesota Vikings 0.5
New Orleans Saints -8.5
New York Jets -2.5
Houston Texans -3
Kansas City Chiefs +5.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3
Indianapolis Colts +6
Arizona Cardinals +13.5
Detroit Lions +6
Denver Broncos -5.5
New England Patriots -1
New York Giants +3
Seattle Seahawks 3.5
Just some side notes - I like the KC pick - good value there. Thinkin' parlay KC and UNDER. Other picks the method made that I like are MIN & NYJ As always - these are just leans the method produced. I don't bet every game and a lot of times I will make various bets based on Value - ie. Sides, Parlays, Teasers. For example -I like a 6pt 3 team tease - MIN, NYJ, KC Best of luck this weekend
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DegenGamble | 142 |
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WEEK 2 - THURSDAY BAL - PK |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:
Hey degen, just wondering what site you use. I want to tinker with this method and report the results back to thread to add to our collective knowledge. bOL this season, last year was great!
I don't want to say the exact site since I scrape their site for their data and just in case - you know - but its one of the top 4 fantasy football sites ESPN, YAHOO, CBS SPORTS, NFL |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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So 1 word for week 1 - DISGUSTING!!!! I don't want to even talk about it - I just want to forget about it and move to week 2. 4-11-1 - 31.25%
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DegenGamble | 142 |
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Quote Originally Posted by therealdutch:
Don’t see the HOU v NE game up there degen. Just FYI. Didn’t know if that was intentional or accident Cut & Paste Error - it was HOU +6.5 - KC was listed twice |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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crap i can't past anything that looks like a link |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Wont let me post a link - so use the text above but make sure to add "h t t p s" in front no spaces
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DegenGamble | 142 |
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Ok so put the spreadsheet on g-drive. Here is the link - I usually put preliminary leans on Tuesday as that's when the week's projections are available on the site I use. I will then update again on Thursday for the Thursday night game and Saturday before the Sunday games. |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Atlanta Falcons 1.5 Pittsburgh Steelers -4 Indianapolis Colts -2.5 Tennessee Titans -1.5 San Francisco 49ers 6.5 New Orleans Saints -9.5 kansas City Chiefs 6.5 Jacksonville Jaguars -3 Buffalo Bills 7.5 Kansas City Chiefs 3.5 Dallas Cowboys 3 Arizona Cardinals -1 Denver Broncos -3 Chicago Bears 7.5 Detroit Lions -6.5 Los Angeles Rams -4 |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Picks for this weekend until I figure out the best way to share the picks via spreadsheet and g-drive |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Hey fellow system/handicapping enthusiasts, So its tough to post and track every week but i'll try to figure out a way to post my spreadsheet with my picks. Maybe make it available on G-Drive and provide a link for folks to check it and maybe whoever is using it ca help post the plays from the spreadsheet. I'll see what I can do. Either way Thursday's pick is..... ATL+3.5 - you can go down to ATL+1.5 and ATL is still the play. |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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So that's all folks - I hope this thread inspires some creative handicapping methods using fantasy football predictive scores to help handicap NFL games.
It's far from perfect - I would love to see some folks track the predictive scores / stats and come up with a better way to translate how many fantasy points equates to real live points.
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DegenGamble | 142 |
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Season results: overall 152-100-3 60.3% win rate for the season Week 1: 8-7 53% Week 2: 9-7 56% Week 3: 12-4 75% Week 4: 11-5 69% Week 5: 7-7 50% Week 6: 9-5 64% Week 7: 6-8-1 43% Week 8: 10-3 77% Week 9: 8-4-1 67% Week 10: 8-6 57% Week 11: 9-5 64% Week 12: 13-3 81% Week 13: 8-8 50% Week 14 6-10 37% Week 15 9-6-1 60% Week 16 9-7 56% Week 17 10-6 62.5%
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DegenGamble | 142 |
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Week 17 results 10-6 62.5% |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Week 17 Picks per the method
JAX +3 ATL -3.5 BAL -9 WAS -3 DET -6.5 MIN -12 CLE +6.5 NOR -6 DAL -2.5 IND -4.5 NE -15 BUF -2.5 SF -3 SEA -8.5 LAC -7.5 DEN -3.5 |
DegenGamble | 142 |
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Season results: Week 1: 8-7 53% Week 2: 9-7 56% Week 3: 12-4 75% Week 4: 11-5 69% Week 5: 7-7 50% Week 6: 9-5 64% Week 7: 6-8-1 43% Week 8: 10-3 77% Week 9: 8-4-1 67% Week 10: 8-6 57% Week 11: 9-5 64% Week 12: 13-3 81% Week 13: 8-8 50% Week 14 6-10 37% Week 15 9-5-1 60% Week 16 9-7 56%
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DegenGamble | 142 |
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