DinoSadies

Prospect

Posts: 24

Member Since: February 2014

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replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies anything else I can add in or that you need to know please feel free to ask... hopefully I'll be able to answer... View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Basic concept... top half of the league when they are playing at home... who they are playing is just based on when the chase is triggered... Most teams end up being favorites at home obviously... but every once in a while they do end up being a dog... View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: Dino, you asked for comments. I told you the reality of what you have. It doesn't mean it won't be prosperous it's just not something I would use. Not a negative comment... honestly looking for a contrary opinion... one to bring me down to earth... and that's what you've done... I mean the expected win percentage of -140 favorites is 58%... so at level 1-4 the bets hit between 56 and 58%... at level 5 it goes to 71% and at level 6 goes up to 81%... do you think these last 2 levels making it profitable are a statistical anomaly then... and therefore not worth betting? I do appreciate your opinion... as you seem to have come up with and tested a bunch of systems as I do myself... thank you View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies [Quote: Originally Posted by puppetm716] If you don't want people to follow and would rather be on your own, why did you post in the first place? [/Quote To be shut down... like this... Dino, here's the nuts and bolts of what I see here. Since this system only averages 122 wins a season you take 1 loss at your -140 you lose 59 units for the season. So you are relying on no losses which is fine or losses that are -123 on average or less. So that being said I'M OUT! Good luck with this though , may your system continue to prosper. The Hat View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: It just doesn't add up, like Bart said -140 is way more than -63 units per loss. 63 is for a 6 game even money all the way. Jeff, like I said... that's the average loss the system has taken to date... both were small... So I guess if you want to do the math for a loss at -140 being the average loss amount for me I would appreciate that actually... The numbers were based on the ACTUAL losses taken... The other thing about this is that the win numbers are actually lower than they are in reality... The fact that some of the series clearing wins were at +money means that the average +$10,811 per season should be a little bit higher... I'm guessing probably somewhere around $12,000??? but it's going to take a long time to go through that and figure out exact dollars... If that was confusing here is what I mean... I took every win at face value as $100 due to the fact that I WILL bet to win $100 no matter what... at the same time... if a team goes off at level 1 at +140... I will bet $100 to win $140... so that means the end of the year total would be $40 higher... there is obviously no negative affect of this... since the minimum win will still be $100... and I've already exactly calculated the 2 losses... View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies [Quote: Originally Posted by Systemtrend] Nice. Will you share how it works or only give picks? [/Quote I have no problem posting picks... but I'm not sure about exactly spelling everything out... Don't want everyone to do it and then have the idea no longer be my own... I know that sounds stupid... I mean my betting or even 100 peoples betting isn't going to affect Vegas even if it is gold... but I guess I'm just paranoid... The concept I came up with however is BEYOND simple...and that's one of the things I like best about it... didn't do anything crazy with it... or do any kind of data-mining... came up with a simple concept... made 2 simple tweaks... not going back trying to eliminate losses... but trying to streamline the process to more accurately reflect the concept... and it worked... I absolutely can't wait over a month for the baseball season to start!!! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: I'm just curious you must have dogs in the chase because just betting - 110 for 6 game chase is 83.79 unit loss. Other than that 100 units a year very well done. Did kind of already answer your question... but yea I end up with dogs in this chase... I'd say 15-20% of the time... I also end up with -200 type favorites 5-10% of the time... fairly wide range... but the sweet spot tends to be right around -140... Thanks for the support View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Kababayan: Great job on this. View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Bart_: In your other thread you said that the average odds are -135 to -145. Is that still true? 2 6 game losses at -140 are for a total of 380 units. I'd still say that is a pretty accurate guess... It just so happens the 2 losses were the Twins in 2011... which resulted in a loss of $6,000 at +odds and the Mets in 2007 which resulted in a loss of $6,600 at right around even odds as well... Don't get me wrong... this is scary... and I know that going in... but to date the losses have been at small odds... and I'm hoping that's a good sign... as it means that when a team is struggling they go off at smaller odds... Not saying it's not possible to take a 9 or 10k loss with this... but at the same time... Hasn't happened yet... and over a 9 year span... I rather like my chances... Any opinions on the amount of years and games backtested and the chance of this working? View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24: A 6 game chase using $100 as a betting unit size? That would take me way out of my comfort zone around game 3-4 depending on odds. At even odds you are looking at bets of 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200. I do like the winning % and would consider playing this on a labby line if I had more details. Yea I mean it all depends on what kind of bankroll you have... in the average season you have 122 wins... so if all goes as expected... at the all-star break you should have enough to take a hit without even going into your bankroll... Personally I'm going to start the year with somewhere around 5-7k at the $100 level... but it would be just as easy to start with $5-700 at the $10 level... or something in between... thanks for your support though! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies Looking for comments on the validity of percentages, years, overall bet sample size... and most importantly chances of profit proceeding with this into this season... Not going to go into complete detail about what the system is... but if you have any questions to help you understand it better that I feel comfortable answering... please feel free to fire away!!! Thanks for any insight in advance!!! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Finally perfected and finalized... (1,099-2) 6 game MLB chase system over 9 years.., in Systems & Strategies 1099-2 Overall... Win = $100... Loss = -$6,300 Total Profit $97,300... Average per year... $10,811 Best Season $15,700... Worst Season $5,500 A Bet - (641-465) 58% of bets hit here alone!!! B Bet - (263-202) 82% of series cleared by line 2!!! C Bet - (115-87) D Bet - (49-38) E Bet - (27-11) F Bet - (9-2) Only 1% of series get to this level!!! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	28	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Made a simple tweak... MLB System now 464-2... in Systems & Strategies Overall 464-2 A 240-204 B 115-89 C 48-41 D 28-13 E 11-2 That's a break down of the bet sequence...Average odds is kind of tough to figure out but if i had to throw out a number I would have to guess somewhere between the -135 and -145 area... I would go into the rules... but am kinda of keeping it close to the vest at this point in time... Just a regular 5 game chase when it comes to the betting pattern though... Any help or advice would be greatly appreciated... Results are not data-mined... as I came up with an original concept and it just so happened to work... and the small tweak took away 54 wins and 3 losses from my record... Which increased profitability and severely lowered risk... The tweak was basically removing bad teams at the 40 game mark of the season since the original system had to do with betting the better teams in baseball... Weeded out some of the land mines I hit quite effectively... View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	3	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Made a simple tweak... MLB System now 464-2... in Systems & Strategies 464-2 over 9 years back-testing... 5 game chase... no losing years... Is this worth betting / what are the chances things go to hell with that kind of a positive history? View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	3	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Help!!! Need Historical MLB Wins Totals (Over/Unders) in MLB Betting Again if anyone has historical MLB Over/Unders... please share!!! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	13	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Help!!! Need Historical MLB Wins Totals (Over/Unders) in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn: 5 game chase can get pricey if favs are involved, is this similiar to "every MLB team will have a 4 game winning & losing streak during the year" ? Not similar to that at all actually... and yes it does get pricy... a loss comes out to about 35 losses worth of money if that makes sense on average... or $3,500... so obviously in chases... losses hurt... at the same time... 518-5 then is equal to 518-175... still crazy profitable as explained above... View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	13	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Help!!! Need Historical MLB Wins Totals (Over/Unders) in MLB Betting For those interested... through 9 years of back-testing... it is 518-5... on a 5 game chase... At a $100 base bet... over 9 years it has returned $36,300 and only 1 year (2 losses) has it lost... and still was only down $1,100... while 3 seasons with 1 loss have netted between $2,400 and $2,900... and 5 seasons that did not hit a loss have returned between $4,700 and $6,900! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	13	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Help!!! Need Historical MLB Wins Totals (Over/Unders) in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn: System for MLB win totals? Intriguing.. any chance of explanation? I use the wins totals to select the teams that I use for the system... found wins totals for 2013 all the way back to 2005... but can't do any more back testing until i find 2004 and before wins totals listings... which I can't find for the life of me anywhere online! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	13	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB System 518-5 (5 game chase) 9 years back-tested!!! in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Kababayan: Statfox may help Looked on the site... not seeing anything remotely like wins totals... but I might just not be able to navigate the site... if you do see it on the site... a link would be amazing! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	7	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Help!!! Need Historical MLB Wins Totals (Over/Unders) in MLB Betting Have been back-testing a system... and I can't find MLB WIns Totals for 2004 or earlier... anyone who could find a place that has them listed I would be forever thankful to!!! View Post \| View Thread	DinoSadies	13	February 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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