fastbreaker

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Member Since: July 2016

Last Activity: 08 November 2021

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to NBA early season dogs in NBA Betting @fastbreaker the R.O.I. is 14.8% View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	February 26, 2021 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA early season dogs in NBA Betting ................ I wasn't able to edit - nothing happened when I clicked edit I figured the R.O.I. wrong sorry about that........................I will work on it and get the correct figure later View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	February 26, 2021 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NBA early season dogs in NBA Betting .................... I had an idea that the dog might be a good bet very early in the NBA season because the abilities of the teams are not well known. many teams add or subtract players and even those who don't do much of that - the 28 year olds are now 29. it seemed to me that there would be significantly greater unpredictability and that unpredictability would favor the dogs using covers.com I tracked the against the spread results of every single game of the first 21 days of the 2020/2021 NBA season results: NBA dogs December 22 2020 thru January 11 2021 92-61..............60% winners...................54.6%...................R.O.I. anybody who wants to double check my stats can do this at covers.com covers.com is the only site I know of that provides this type of historical data when I feel like I have more energy I will work on other years and report back View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	February 26, 2021 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic home team advantage shrinking in NFL Betting fascinating (to me anyway) article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/sports/football/road-team-advantage.html View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	January 10, 2020 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Road Dogs during the regular season in NFL Betting As you can see from the link, statistician Mike Shackleford, who runs the Wizard of Odds website, tracked about 2,100 NFL games involving road dogs and found them to win 53.75% with a 2.57% R.O.I. I speculated that the road dogs might win a higher % if only games where they got more than 3 points were considered I tracked this for the entire 2019 NFL regular season - I am not including pushes - there weren't many - I think just 2 Results for road dogs who got more than 3 points: 61-41.........................59.80% winners......................14.17%........ R.O.I anyone who wants to double check my stats or work on prior seasons can do so at covers.com - they have data going back many years I plan to scope this out next season too https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	6	December 30, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Derby Hopefuls - Slow Beyers in Horse Racing only Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security have cracked 100 and Hidden Scroll's Beyer is suspect because he got loose on the lead with weak competition in the slop. Maximum Security's big Beyer was at 7 furlongs, a sprint so it doesn't really count. there's a pretty fair chance he's just a sprinter. Haikal got only a 95 and Tacitus only a 93 for their wins yesterday https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	March 10, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Hidden Scroll - buzz horse - badly beaten in Horse Racing I don't see the fast splits in the F.O.Y. as being a legitimate excuse. To me, it looked like he didn't like the longer distance and the higher quality horses breathing down his neck if he can't hold his speed for 8.5 furlongs what chance does he have to hold his speed for 10 furlongs? slim and none View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	March 08, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Unders First Game After All Star Break in NBA Betting on another forum a poster made an NBA pick on an under the first day back from the All Star game - saying he hoped the shooters would be cold after the break except for the ones who were All Stars they hadn't played in a real game for almost a week it sounded to me like a good angle - like something like that might not be totally factored into the odds - I never thought of that angle before so, anyway I checked and on the first day back which was 2-21: it doesn't prove anything but on this day the unders went 5-1 not only that but every single under that won won by double digits - and 2 of them won by about 20 points View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	February 26, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Guaranteeing a Win in Extreme Minus Pool in Horse Racing very interesting (to me).it's very rare but it does happen. found a 1995 column by Andrew Beyer claiming you can guarantee a win in a minus show pool when the big horse has 96.6% (my calculation) of the money in the pool bet on it. a couple of points: because of the change to net pool pricing from standard pool pricing when the article was written the bettor gains. in Beyer's article the other 2 horses only paid $2.10 when the big horse showed. Bellafina created a minus pool at Santa Anita on 2/9, she showed and the other 2 horses paid $2.40 and $3.20 because of net pool pricing. But the more interesting point is that Beyer is actually wrong. You can't guarantee a win because if 2 horses are longshots in the show pool and they don't come in you may not have a profit. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1995/10/03/heavy-bets-offer-a-little-show-and-tell/e1b7679e-4200-44f6-abe6-573696a9db26/?utm_term=.14ad211178db View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	February 19, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Free PPs and other Free Info in Horse Racing downthestretchs.com offers an assortment of free PPs from Brisnet the Equibase charts now have speed figures which means although it takes more time to click on each horse in a race than a PP you can get all of the same info and some info that is better than in the PPs from their charts which are free the speed figures for Brisnet and Equibase are surely not as good as Beyers in the DRF but IMO the difference is so small it is insignificant View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	5	December 28, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Nuggets Craziness in NBA Betting the Nuggets are 13-3 at home and 8-7 away last season they were 31-10 at home and 15-26 away that's really extreme - I don't think I've even ever seen a college record that extreme I wrote a poem about them just for you guys it's called: THE DENVER NUGGETS Where the air is thin The home team usually wins I'm hoping the literary community will take notice and nominate me for a Robert Frost award View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	December 23, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic The Great Filly Enable Headed to Breeders Cup Turf in Horse Racing The filly Enable won Europe's most prestigious race, Le Prix de L'arc De Triomphe in Paris last Sunday for the 2nd year in a row. She is one of the greatest fillies of all time. She's won 8 races in a row, the last 7 being Grade 1s. In many of those races she ran against males and humiliated them. She is most likely headed to The Breeders Cup Turf race and she will probably be the most heralded superstar in all of the races over the weekend. She will very likely be a favorite to beat the boys in this classic race. This year, the race is being held at Churchill Downs in Louisville so I'm praying there won't be rain that ruins the turf or forces them to take it off the turf. Recently it's been run in CA where there is very little chance of that. Her jock is Frankie Dettori who is one of the greatest turf jockeys out there. I'm not saying she's an advantage play, she will surely be bet pretty far down. I'd be shocked if she finished worse than 3rd. She is regarded by many as being "The Greatest Racehorse in the World" right now although some might give that title to the mare Winx. Even without betting this race will be very fun to watch. On the downside it's possible she won't like or react well to the very long trip over here. I doubt that will be a factor but it's always a possibility. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/oct/07/enable-joins-horse-racing-greats-frankie-dettori-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-win-horse-racing View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	October 11, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Browns +1 over chargers in NFL Betting I'm betting that the Browns and Baker Mayfield are for real. View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	October 11, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Picks 6/26 in MLB Betting one more pick for 6/26 Angels....................+ 155 View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Picks 6/26 in MLB Betting thanks dcgmt one mor pick for 6/26 - Marlins..................+160 View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic MLB Picks 6/26 in MLB Betting from best line at vegasinsider.com all bets for $100 for accounting purposes Pirates..................+115 Reds.....................+138 Cubs.....................+145 Rockies.................+120 Orioles..................+133 may post Marlins game later - no line yet View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Picks 6/25 in MLB Betting results 6/25 picks: 3-5 - ($128) based on $100 bets includes Cubs game that was put on another thread View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic One more pick 6/25 in MLB Betting Cubs..............+150 View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	June 25, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic MLB Picks 6/25 in MLB Betting all bets from best line vegasinsider.com at time of posting all bets for $100 for accounting purposes Marlins............... + 115 Reds............... + 138 Orioles............... + 125 Phillies............... + 125 Padres............... + 140 Cardinals........... + 115 Royals;.............. + 152 may post cubs game later - no line right now View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	June 25, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Emptying Wallet on Cavs in NBA Betting thanks for the good advice. yeah, I''m not going to take out a 2nd mortgage. I just juiced up my words a little. I will make what is my largest bet but not one that will destroy me or knock me out of the game if I lose. View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	June 04, 2018 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to NBA early season dogs in NBA Betting @fastbreaker the R.O.I. is 14.8% View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	February 26, 2021 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA early season dogs in NBA Betting ................ I wasn't able to edit - nothing happened when I clicked edit I figured the R.O.I. wrong sorry about that........................I will work on it and get the correct figure later View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	February 26, 2021 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NBA early season dogs in NBA Betting .................... I had an idea that the dog might be a good bet very early in the NBA season because the abilities of the teams are not well known. many teams add or subtract players and even those who don't do much of that - the 28 year olds are now 29. it seemed to me that there would be significantly greater unpredictability and that unpredictability would favor the dogs using covers.com I tracked the against the spread results of every single game of the first 21 days of the 2020/2021 NBA season results: NBA dogs December 22 2020 thru January 11 2021 92-61..............60% winners...................54.6%...................R.O.I. anybody who wants to double check my stats can do this at covers.com covers.com is the only site I know of that provides this type of historical data when I feel like I have more energy I will work on other years and report back View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	February 26, 2021 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic home team advantage shrinking in NFL Betting fascinating (to me anyway) article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/sports/football/road-team-advantage.html View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	January 10, 2020 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Road Dogs during the regular season in NFL Betting As you can see from the link, statistician Mike Shackleford, who runs the Wizard of Odds website, tracked about 2,100 NFL games involving road dogs and found them to win 53.75% with a 2.57% R.O.I. I speculated that the road dogs might win a higher % if only games where they got more than 3 points were considered I tracked this for the entire 2019 NFL regular season - I am not including pushes - there weren't many - I think just 2 Results for road dogs who got more than 3 points: 61-41.........................59.80% winners......................14.17%........ R.O.I anyone who wants to double check my stats or work on prior seasons can do so at covers.com - they have data going back many years I plan to scope this out next season too https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	6	December 30, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Derby Hopefuls - Slow Beyers in Horse Racing only Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security have cracked 100 and Hidden Scroll's Beyer is suspect because he got loose on the lead with weak competition in the slop. Maximum Security's big Beyer was at 7 furlongs, a sprint so it doesn't really count. there's a pretty fair chance he's just a sprinter. Haikal got only a 95 and Tacitus only a 93 for their wins yesterday https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	March 10, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Hidden Scroll - buzz horse - badly beaten in Horse Racing I don't see the fast splits in the F.O.Y. as being a legitimate excuse. To me, it looked like he didn't like the longer distance and the higher quality horses breathing down his neck if he can't hold his speed for 8.5 furlongs what chance does he have to hold his speed for 10 furlongs? slim and none View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	March 08, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Unders First Game After All Star Break in NBA Betting on another forum a poster made an NBA pick on an under the first day back from the All Star game - saying he hoped the shooters would be cold after the break except for the ones who were All Stars they hadn't played in a real game for almost a week it sounded to me like a good angle - like something like that might not be totally factored into the odds - I never thought of that angle before so, anyway I checked and on the first day back which was 2-21: it doesn't prove anything but on this day the unders went 5-1 not only that but every single under that won won by double digits - and 2 of them won by about 20 points View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	February 26, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Guaranteeing a Win in Extreme Minus Pool in Horse Racing very interesting (to me).it's very rare but it does happen. found a 1995 column by Andrew Beyer claiming you can guarantee a win in a minus show pool when the big horse has 96.6% (my calculation) of the money in the pool bet on it. a couple of points: because of the change to net pool pricing from standard pool pricing when the article was written the bettor gains. in Beyer's article the other 2 horses only paid $2.10 when the big horse showed. Bellafina created a minus pool at Santa Anita on 2/9, she showed and the other 2 horses paid $2.40 and $3.20 because of net pool pricing. But the more interesting point is that Beyer is actually wrong. You can't guarantee a win because if 2 horses are longshots in the show pool and they don't come in you may not have a profit. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1995/10/03/heavy-bets-offer-a-little-show-and-tell/e1b7679e-4200-44f6-abe6-573696a9db26/?utm_term=.14ad211178db View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	February 19, 2019 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Free PPs and other Free Info in Horse Racing downthestretchs.com offers an assortment of free PPs from Brisnet the Equibase charts now have speed figures which means although it takes more time to click on each horse in a race than a PP you can get all of the same info and some info that is better than in the PPs from their charts which are free the speed figures for Brisnet and Equibase are surely not as good as Beyers in the DRF but IMO the difference is so small it is insignificant View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	5	December 28, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Nuggets Craziness in NBA Betting the Nuggets are 13-3 at home and 8-7 away last season they were 31-10 at home and 15-26 away that's really extreme - I don't think I've even ever seen a college record that extreme I wrote a poem about them just for you guys it's called: THE DENVER NUGGETS Where the air is thin The home team usually wins I'm hoping the literary community will take notice and nominate me for a Robert Frost award View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	December 23, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic The Great Filly Enable Headed to Breeders Cup Turf in Horse Racing The filly Enable won Europe's most prestigious race, Le Prix de L'arc De Triomphe in Paris last Sunday for the 2nd year in a row. She is one of the greatest fillies of all time. She's won 8 races in a row, the last 7 being Grade 1s. In many of those races she ran against males and humiliated them. She is most likely headed to The Breeders Cup Turf race and she will probably be the most heralded superstar in all of the races over the weekend. She will very likely be a favorite to beat the boys in this classic race. This year, the race is being held at Churchill Downs in Louisville so I'm praying there won't be rain that ruins the turf or forces them to take it off the turf. Recently it's been run in CA where there is very little chance of that. Her jock is Frankie Dettori who is one of the greatest turf jockeys out there. I'm not saying she's an advantage play, she will surely be bet pretty far down. I'd be shocked if she finished worse than 3rd. She is regarded by many as being "The Greatest Racehorse in the World" right now although some might give that title to the mare Winx. Even without betting this race will be very fun to watch. On the downside it's possible she won't like or react well to the very long trip over here. I doubt that will be a factor but it's always a possibility. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/oct/07/enable-joins-horse-racing-greats-frankie-dettori-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-win-horse-racing View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	October 11, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Browns +1 over chargers in NFL Betting I'm betting that the Browns and Baker Mayfield are for real. View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	1	October 11, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Picks 6/26 in MLB Betting one more pick for 6/26 Angels....................+ 155 View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Picks 6/26 in MLB Betting thanks dcgmt one mor pick for 6/26 - Marlins..................+160 View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic MLB Picks 6/26 in MLB Betting from best line at vegasinsider.com all bets for $100 for accounting purposes Pirates..................+115 Reds.....................+138 Cubs.....................+145 Rockies.................+120 Orioles..................+133 may post Marlins game later - no line yet View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	4	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Picks 6/25 in MLB Betting results 6/25 picks: 3-5 - ($128) based on $100 bets includes Cubs game that was put on another thread View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	June 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic One more pick 6/25 in MLB Betting Cubs..............+150 View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	2	June 25, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic MLB Picks 6/25 in MLB Betting all bets from best line vegasinsider.com at time of posting all bets for $100 for accounting purposes Marlins............... + 115 Reds............... + 138 Orioles............... + 125 Phillies............... + 125 Padres............... + 140 Cardinals........... + 115 Royals;.............. + 152 may post cubs game later - no line right now View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	June 25, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Emptying Wallet on Cavs in NBA Betting thanks for the good advice. yeah, I''m not going to take out a 2nd mortgage. I just juiced up my words a little. I will make what is my largest bet but not one that will destroy me or knock me out of the game if I lose. View Post \| View Thread	fastbreaker	3	June 04, 2018 View Post \| View Thread

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