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Premier League: Manchester City - Watford

Not much we have actually seen recently suggests that City should be 1.25 to win this. They were a defensive shambles against Leicester City on Saturday evening and sorely missed the protection of Fernandinho (last five PL games he has missed have produced 21 goals), who is once again suspended, along with Aguero (last five he has sat out have produced 24 ). Watford are coming off a nice 3-2 win over Everton where they could have scored a couple more, but are equally as unreliable at the back and have shipped nine, in their last two road starts, also allowing a whopping 20 attempts on target. Guardiola will be demanding a reaction from his men and it could all click and they will run in hatful, but hard to see that coming along with a clean sheet at present. The hosts have to find a way to win, or they could be nine points plus adrift of Chelsea and under huge pressure for the visit from a wounded Arsenal at the weekend, think the best way to approach this is.......

Manchester City to win and both teams to score 2.50-2.70 general quote ...............best alternative, over 3.5 goals

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NFL: Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Jets are out of the post season reckoning and rebuilding for next season will soon be under way, they will doubtless be up for this, with the spotlight on them and the nation watching, but it is very difficult to see how they can match the motivation of the visiting team for four quarters. The Jets are 1-4 at home and whilst three of those came against two good and one decent team, the loss to the offensively shy Rams, where LA had the most passing yards in the game with just 165, was dismal. I spoke about the Rams woes yesterday.

The Colts would have been delighted to have sat and watched their divisional rivals the Texans lose last night and they can move into a three way tie for the lead in the AFC South with the win, Colts, Houston and Titans would all then be on 6-6 and from that position, Indianapolis, who have been here before, would fancy their chances, infact, they do and have spoken about that this week. However, they probably need to win 4 from 5 and two have to be today and at home to the Texans (as they already lost in Houston) this coming weekend, they have difficult road trips to Minnesota and Oakland and have to allow themselves some leeway. 9-7 could be enough and that took this division last season, but it would not suffice without going 2/2 this week. So this is it, season defining 7 days for Indy who get quarterback Andrew Luck back from a concussion absence, he has practiced fully the last three days and is raring to go and he will lead (IMO) the pass heavy visitors to a 5-7 point win. The Colts are 2-3 on the road, losing at the Broncos, Texans and Jags who are ranked #1, #5 and #2 respectively against the pass and beating the #17 Packers and #26 Titans and the Jets ? They fit nicely in at number 22 and look ripe for the picking ! The Colts have a young receiving group, but are improving and will get better, senior amongst them is T.Y Hilton, who held a meeting with his fellow receivers this week to discuss what they needed to do to beat the man on man coverage of the almost certain to be blitzing Jets. Hilton's corps dropped three big passers last week , which probably cost 14 points, but they have worked hard to correct those errors this last week + and should be more in sync with the returning Luck and have had 11 days to prepare for this.

Indianapolis Colts -2 points 1.95 Pinnacle /Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro

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Premier League: Bournemouth - Liverpool

We spoke so much last season about the open nature of Bournemouth home games, we have not seen that to quite the same level this season. but that has more to do with how teams have set up when arriving at Dean Court, Manchester United came here and played their part in a four goal thriller and we know 100% that Liverpool will not be coming to sit back, it is simply not in their DNA under Jurgen Klopp. The Cherries went toe to toe with Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend and were in things and gave as good as they got for 90 + minutes and will need no second invitation to get forward this afternoon. No Coutinho for the visitors, but Lallana and Firminho should be fit to play. Andrew Surman remains out for Bournemouth and whilst we have not seen it yet, the defensive midfielder (ever present for over 25 months since joining until October) is very important to them and his absence will be felt today with Liverpool so good at pressing and moving the ball quickly. BTS , Liverpool to win.


over 3 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

Both teams to score and Liverpool to win 3.10-3.25 general quote

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Championship: Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United

Incredibly, given they lead the Championship, United lost at home for the third time this season last weekend, they also lost at Hull City on penalties in midweek in the League Cup with a much changed team, but it is only about getting back to the Premier League for the Magpies. On the road they are 7-1-1 and have been scoring at the rate of two per game, they seem happier away, where they get a little more freedom and teams are not raising their game playing in famous old St James' Park, the biggest stadium and crowd many Championship players will have faced.

Forest can only really play one way, their games have produced an average of 3.56 goals (1.05 above the divisional mean) and they are urged forward by the crowd here and are too gung ho at times. Both teams have scored in the last 11 Championship games at the City Ground and, in all competitions, they have not kept a clean sheet in 14 , conceding 2.0 per game and allowing 3+ on five occasions ( 35.7%). Given that percentage and that United are top scorers in the Championship and will probably need 2+ goals to win, the visitors look good value at 3.50-3.60 (circa 28%) to score three or more.

The hosts do not have many "going" days, but are coming off two , back to back road wins scoring seven goals, when they do, they can be unstoppable, but usually for 30-45 minutes, not 90 ! This should be entertaining.

Newcastle United to score three of more 3.50-3.60 general quote...........there is 3.70 in places.

"over" 3 goals 2.40 asian line/Sportmarket

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NBA: Charlotte Hornets - Detroit Pistons

I’m a bit surprised that Pistons receive such a high regard here, being given only +3 points on the spread. The reason probably is that they have had a day more rest than Hornets, who are back-to-back. The b2b factor is weighing less and less in present day NBA though, with all the medical attention players receive, plus the general schedule this season is way lighter than in the last years.

The rest can’t really compensate for Pistons terrible road form. They have only 1 win in 9 road games so far and are just not the same team, at home and on the road. Charlotte boosted their win column with 2 nice wins over Memphis in a home-and-home series and will be eager to build on that. Only Marvin Williams stays inactive for them with injury, the other players with minor knocks played normally against Grizzlies.

Charlotte won 3 of 4 against Detroit in last season series, including both games here. Anything else bar another home win would be a surprising result here. Hornets average around 2 rbs. per game more than Detroit (rebounding is presumably one of Motor City boys strongest sides behind Andre Drummond) and around 10 (!) pts. more on the offensive end.

Recommendation: Hornets -3

Odds: 2.02

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NFL: Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders

I have been praising and siding with the fast improving Raiders for a few weeks and want to stick with them today.

Briefly, I find it very hard to make a case for the moving backwards Panthers, their offensive line had looked to be improving slightly, but what they do best is going to be large ineffective against the Raiders and the lightning fast release of Derek Carr, there just won't be time enough for Carolina to get to him, especially missing team leaders all over the show.

Sack leader Mario Addison is out, along with Pro Bowlers center Ryan Kalil and middle line backer Luke Kuechly, those two are team "captains" and give signals. guidelines and directions to their units and are just massive, massive losses.

Oakland Raiders -4 points 2.17 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket

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NFL: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

I favour the Redskins and am very tempted by odds of 3.50 to win this, but will probably end up going with them getting a few points start.

I opposed Dallas at the weekend writing.............

"The Ravens will want to keep their lead over the Steelers until they meet again on Christmas Day ( what a treat !) and I have to say I like them getting a touchdown start against the Cowboys, who Pittsburgh kept to within five last week and this is my idea of the "upset" of the day. Dallas are 8-1, but five games were decided by a touchdown or less and two of the other four were against teams with a combined record of 2-17. Key for me will be the run, Dallas have been able to move the ball on the ground freely, but Baltimore are very difficult to run against (ranked #1), that might force the Cowboys into a more one dimensional offense and Baltimore have had an extra three days to recover and prepare."

That should have been the "upset", Baltimore led by 7 and looked in control until the game turned on one play and some terrible, shoot yourself in the foot, penalties from the Ravens. Cowboys played well enough offensively in the second half to win , Dez Bryant stepping up with some very important receptions and lots of people will have been impressed with how they played, but I have some real doubts about them defensively and they do not look like a 9-1 team to me. Dallas can afford to lose and still stay in control of the division, for the Redskins, they really need to keep winning.

Washington have a very balanced offense with two runners "sharing" circa 900 yards and Kirk Cousins having a career defining season.They have put up 95 points against "winning" teams in the last three weeks. The Skins lost the reverse meeting 27-23, but Prescott, Bryant and Elliott all had big games for Dallas and still Washington came so close and should have won, wasting a series of good field positions in the second half , everything went wrong for them, right for Dallas and still they kept to within 4 points and Washington look much improved since. So too are Dallas of course, but that defeat and maybe more than one, is coming and I fancy the first could be today, points and the "away" win !

Washington Redskins + 5.5 points 2.03 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/ Sportmarket Pro.
"over" 52 points 2.05 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/ Sportmarket Pro.

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NBA: Sacramento Kings - Oklahoma City Thunder

The line is set about right, maybe only a point or two bigger than it should be. Yet I see decent chances this game develops into a shootout, something like 120-115 for one of them.

Both team’s strength is not the defensive part of the game. Kings usually make entertaining home games as their fans (and even their owner) very much prefer to see wins like that 120-115, instead of 100-95. Demarcus is hungry for points to his statistics as always, no need to mention that, but even Rudy Gay remembered his old days like one of the leagues’ elite one-on-one scorers lately.

Thunder lost disappointingly at LA against Lakers. Their defense wasn’t on the required level and it will be tested tonight again. At the same time, Westbrook is relentless, he attacks the rim again and again, almost single-handedly made a near come-back in LA.

3 of the 4 meetings in this series last season finished well over this total.

Recommend: OVER 213

Odds: 2.00

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NBA: Sacramento Kings - Los Angeles Clippers

I wondered back and forth in circles as to which is the higher percentage play here, Clipps to cover 8 points spread or OVER. LA are expected to bounce back after the surprising home loss from Memphis. At the other hand, I wouldn’t say Clipps are as strong mentally team as Spurs, Cavs or Warriors, for example. Sacramento win here will be a surprise, yes, but not a total shock. And I doubt eventual Clippers win will come as easy as odds suggest, unless Cousins starts arguing with the refs and gets thrown out or make another stupid thing.

He played well in last season series with Clipps by the way, recording something like 22+ pts. and 12+ rbs. on average. This very much suits his psychological profile, he is eager to compete and measure his skills with the best big men in the league, just like DeAndre Jordan. So I expect a committed performance by DeMarcus.

Actually, these teams surpassed this total line in all 4 meetings last season. There is a perfect explanation for the lower line here though. Clippers play one of the best (if not the best) defense in the league so far. They have the biggest points differential in the league with almost 15 pts. Margin between points scored and allowed on average. This is of course unsustainable for a whole season, albeit Doc Rivers and his boys deserve full credit for the job on the defensive end in the off season.

Yet Kings lost quite narrowly, 105-110, to San Antonio in their last game here in Sacramento. I see pretty good chances they surpass the hundred mark once again, which would mean a winning play most probably.

Recommend.: OVER 205

Odds: 2.01

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World Cup Qualifiers: Northern Ireland - Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan are unbeaten through three group games and have yet to concede, keeping clean sheets against both Norway and the Czech Republic and holding a surprise second place in Group C behind big favourites Germany. It is only the second playoff spot that is realistically up for grabs and the visitors would take a very firm grip on it, were they to win in Belfast. Northern Ireland are not exactly full of goals and the absences of Stuart Dallas and Jamie Ward lessen their offensive threat and without Ward, the Irish are an incredibly bad 1-9-16 in the last six years, the win coming over the Faroe Islands and that sequence included a 1-1 home draw with Azerbaijan. They have been starting with Josh Magennis up front, with Ward in the secondary role in recent games, Magennis had just 28 goals in the SPL in five seasons and is hardly banging them in regularly for Charlton Athletic this season in the third tier of English football (a goal every 400 minutes) and it is easy to make a case for Azerbaijan keeping the Irish fairly quiet. A goal for the visitors should be enough for a point (aside from against San Marino the Irish have only scored more than one in 2 of 12 starts) and they might not even need that and this game feels like it has been priced wrongly and based on what was perceived as a strong Euro showing for Northerm Ireland, where they actually lost 3/4 and they have failed to score in six of their last eight starts. Azerbaijan have two teams in the group stages of the Europa League, with domestic champions Qarabag, who supply eight of this squad, in good position to qualify and this is clearly a footballing nation on the rise.

Azerbaijan +0.5 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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NBA: Milwaukee Bucks – New Orleans Pelicans

Recommendation: Bucks - 5

Odds: 1.87

I think I’ve made myself clear enough, Pelicans will be one of the weakest teams this season. Actually, they are front-runners to be the worst team in the league and to guarantee themselves the best chance to win the lottery. It’s still very early for intentional tanking, they are still very bad and don’t possess deep enough NBA-ready roster besides Davis. The bench situation is even more dramatic, pretty naturally.

Bucks already took the first win in this season’s series, a week ago in New Orleans, and will actually clean sweep Pelicans with a win tonight. Milwaukee come off a 3 days rest tonight, fresh and motivated to continue they good home form with a 4th consecutive victory here.

They play way more freely at home. The last 2 wins here were quite good and comfortable ones, over Sacramento and Indiana. Milwaukee have more than enough big bodies to throw at Davis on the defensive end. It will be a total surprise if they don’t have the rebounding edge too.

All in all, I can’t see New Orleans stopping Bucks from scoring buckets tonight, so hopefully the mid spread won’t prove to be a problem

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Checkatrade Trophy: Sunderland U23 - Notts County

Hosts are in with a point, County need to win. The visitors will surely be up for a visit to the Stadium of Light, even in front of one man and his dog, five of their six league wins this season have come on the road . Head coach John Sheridan said:"I don't expect the crowd to be big, but it's a beautiful stadium and it's a lovely pitch to go and play football on."It's a game we want to win, and hopefully the players will go and do that. "We know if we win we go through. "The players know that."Not many people will know much about their players, but I went to watch them against Rochdale and they've got some good, bright, young players."Technically they are very good and it will be a good test for us. "But we will have more experience and hopefully we can affect the game the way we want to."At Premier League academies they get all these luxuries – it's a different world."But I think they will respect coming up against the teams from League One and League Two, they will realise it's a tough old game."It is totally different to academy football and I think it's good for the younger players from Premier League clubs to see what it takes to earn a living at that level.

It says a lot about Sheridan that he personally travelled five hours on a midweek night to watch future opposition in this competition and he is not going to put in that kind of effort and not demand at least the same from his players and they should make their experience tell.

Notts County +0.25 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket

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Golf PGA: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Wide open leaderboard with 20 players within four stroke of the lead. I only want to discuss one of those, Geoff Ogilvy, he was a seven time winner on Tour between 2005-2010 when he simply oozed class , winning the US Open and finishing top six in all four majors. He has won just once since then , in 2014, but before you feel too sorry for him, he has banked $40m+ in prize money alone. Still only 39, he should have double that number of wins. However, class is permanent and you might get out of the habit, yet rarely totally forget how to win. When he won in 2014, he nearly followed up a couple of weeks later at a big playoff event and whilst we have seen little of him at the top of the leaderboard since, he finished 2016 with a couple of eyecatching finishes (this is technically a 2017 tournament........... don't ask !). He shot a Sunday 63 at the Canadian Open in July and in August was 67-68 over the weekend at the John Deere and 68-66 at the Wyndham. He has played the back nine in -11 this week, which is as good/better than almost everyone and if he can reach the turn within a shot or two of the lead, he could turn back the clock today.

39 is that funny age, golfers should not really be having a stellar or comeback year at 29 or 39, it ought really to come at 30 or 40, once you have got the "trauma" of that milestone birthday out of the way. But when chances for Ogilvy come along rarely nowadays, I think we have to forget that, anyway, his wife just turned 40 and maybe that will provide the inspiration and knowledge that life just keeps rolling on ! He likes the hot dry weather and lives in the desert, so should be happy here in Nevada and his last win, came at the Barracuda Championship in this state, so omens are good.

We can "waste" a little at big odds............ Geoff Ogilvy to win outright 17.0 general quote...........there is a little at 17.5/18.0 on Betfair

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NBA: Washington Wizards – Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Raptors -1

Odds: 1.952


Odds seem almost like a trap here, with Toronto being the far classier side. Wizards have a negative expectation for this season, compared with the last one, but they still have to win some games, linger around the 9-10th place in the East and wait for next summer free agents market.

This is their home opener actually and John Wall and Co will find some motivation to perform well in front of their fans. It’s one thing to plan and desire something and another thing to make it happen though.

Toronto swept the season series 4-0 last season. They might not repeat this feat, it’s hard to do it twice in a row with a semi-competitive team, but 3-1 seems like a legit result for the season.

Washington experience much difficulties when playing against opponents with strong backcourt (like Raptors, quite obviously). I am not a fan of Wizards’ perimeter defense too and hope Lowry will finally catch some fire and knock down some 3’s, while slowing down Wall on the defensive end.

All in all, I see this game as Toronto’s win to lose, let’s see

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Champions League: Borussia M. - Celtic

Celtic were run ragged in the first leg and lost 2-0, the magin of defeat should have been greater and aside from their performance at home to Manchester City and England-Scotland match ups do have a different dynamic, they look some way short of the quality required to compete at this level currently . Kolo Toure made two horrendous mistakes, he will miss today's game, which might well be a bonus for the visitors, but the loss of left back Kieran Tierney most definitely will not be. The youngster is ever present this season and described by most watchers as their best defender . With BMG surely looking again to press and harry Celtic into mistakes and the Scottish champions with no option but to attack and that is the only way they can play, when you win 77% (last four seasons) of all league games, you have little experience of setting up defensively. They need to win this to get back into (at least) Europa League contention and BMG will be similarly minded as three points is going to guarantee EL football and would actually take them above Manchester City and up into second, unless the Premier League leaders also beat Barcelona ( see below). BMG will be stronger tonight than for the first leg, Celtic will not sit back too long and should be even more vulnerable defensively and one goal, should see this get very stretched.

"over" 3 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket

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NFL: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Chargers are improving and will be confident no doubt after a 21-13 win over the Broncos just 17 days ago, but at home, on a quick turnaround against a team coming off their first loss of the season, is not the same as playing in Mile High with the Broncos back on track after a 27-9 win over the Texans. Chargers did follow up at at the Falcons last week, which looks good on paper, but they were 17 points down at one stage and needed 450 + yards of offense to win a game in overtime and this Denver defense will not allow that many in their own stadium, or blow a double digit lead. Also, they do not lose twice to a divisional opponent, especially one who is not going to win the section and there is the small matter of revenge and that San Diego are not very good on the road, where they have lost 11/13. Broncos have won the last three h2h meetings in Colorado, all by 7 + points and with Denver suddenly a big running team with full back Andy Janovich opening huge holes for the running backs who appear to have realised later than most what an asset the 23yo is, punching massive openings for them to run through. I see this as a great match up for Denver despite the recent loss and 7 points as the minimum margin again.

Denver Broncos - 4 points 2.05 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket

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Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta

Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period.

Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble.

Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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Scottish Premier League: Hamilton - Aberdeen

Aberdeen have won six in a row in all competitions, a run which has taken them up to second in the SPL, they will be looking to stay there tonight, ahead of a home game with leaders Celtic at the weekend. Hamilton are in 10th place, which is where they finished last season and you suspect that if you offered that to them again, they would snatch your hand off for it and another year of survival. Teams have got used to the Tigerturf surface here now and Hamilton have won just 7 of 33 home SPL starts since January 1st 2015, they have been helped in that regard this season by an "easy" schedule so far and have yet to face one of the "big 4" at home. They have also lost their last four home midweek games, they entertain basement club Dundee on Saturday, that is the far more win-able fixture and in terms of staying in the SPL, the more important of this week's two games.

This is a great opportunity for the Dons to put some real pressure on Celtic , who played the Old Firm game on Sunday and a Champions League tie last midweek, they do not play until tomorrow and meet Aberdeen at lunchtime on Saturday, with the return game in Germany with BMG next Tuesday ! But all that will mean far less, if the visitors do not claim all three points this evening.

Aberdeen -1 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket

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J League: Omiya Ardija - Shonan Bellmare

Shonan are eight points from safety , with nine to play for, but a point for Nagoya would make three wins meaningless and even six results going their way (ain't gonna happen!) would probably still leave them short on goal difference. In other words, preparations for JL2 will have already started, the evil deed can be officially done and dusted today and surely it is better to get that out of the way on the road and make next week's final home start, less painful. Shonan are 1-2-11 in Stage 2 and have not scored in four starts, only 9 times in 16 home games over the full season.

Omiya came up as champions last season and have had a terrific 2016, they are 6th in the overall table and whilst they have little to play for, 4th would be a fantastic achievement (they are only a point shy of Gamba) and has to be, you feel, a target. They spent ten straight seasons in the top flight until relegation in 2014, before dropping out, they (incredibly) finished between 12th and 15th for each of those previous nine campaigns and 4th would be amazing. So, still some motivation IMO and they could hardly be in better shape, bring unbeaten in six (all comps) with five wins and 12 goals in their last four and they can record a sixth straight home win over Shonan. The visitors are better on the road, where they have collected 14 of 21 points, but most of those came early in the campaign and they have only won once away from home since May 4th, this should not be a draw, we get few at this time of year and there is no good reason for one today and Omiya look the far more likely of the two to claim the win.

Omiya Ardija -0.75 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket

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Europa League: Viktoria Plzen - Astra Giurgiu

Plzen are another team who have collected a lot of European experience in double quick time. They have made the group stage of the Champions League twice and the Europa League three times in the last six seasons and made the round of 16 twice in this competition.

Astra have only played five seasons total in Europe, they have some big name scalps in qualifying, including beating West Ham twice, but to be fair, they were early season ties against distracted teams , not fully committed to the competition. They did make the group stage in 2014-15 when they conceded 15 goals and they have given up 24 in their last 11 away days in Europe. Domestically they have half the points they had at the same stage last season, have won just 3/12 and are conceding at the rate of 1.5 goals per game. They are bottom of the group without a point and have alreday shipped seven goals, including a 4-0 loss away to Roma. That was "only" four as the hosts switched off at the hour mark, decided enough was enough and substituted three key players. Plzen are third and have two points, the top two have four points and are playing out a double header, so a fantastic chance for the home side to move into one of the top two spots and they will surely look for goals tonight, they already have draws with the top two and goal difference could easily come into play. Viktoria are looking for a third straight domestic title and currently trail the leader by two points. so every league game is important, but they need to build momentum and a convincing win here will help not hinder IMO.

Viktoria Plzen -1.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket

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