GorillaPimpin

Bournemouth vs Nottingham ForestBoth teams have undeniably performed well relative to pre-season expectations. However, a deeper dive into underlying statistics, specifically expected points (xP), reveals a discrepancy. Expected points is a metric that evaluates the quality of chances created and conceded by a team, providing a more accurate reflection of performance than raw points alone. In this context, Bournemouth's xP aligns more closely with their current league position, suggesting their success is built on sustainable performance. Conversely, Forest's xP is lower than their actual points tally, indicating they may have over-performed relative to the quality of their play. A statistical regression will eventually manifest, with results gradually aligning more closely with the underlying performance metrics. In practical terms, this means Sheriffs may experience a gradual descent in the table as their actual performance catches up with their expected points trajectory.

Bournemouth ML @ 2.16

Manchester City vs Chelsea

Here, I believe Manchester City, who have demonstrated a tendency to collapse defensively and exhibit vulnerabilities in their defense, are being slightly overrated. The difference in quality between the two teams is not as significant as perceived by some. Chelsea have won 55% of their away matches, while City have won 60%, indicating a relatively marginal difference in away form.

Furthermore, it's worth noting a crucial statistical trend: City concede more goals at home than away, while Chelsea score more goals away than at home. This suggests that Chelsea's offensive capabilities could be particularly effective when playing at the Etihad Stadium, potentially exploiting City's home defensive frailties. This statistical anomaly further supports the argument that the gap between the teams is narrower than commonly believed, and that Chelsea possess the tools to pose a significant threat to City, even on their home turf.

Chelsea to Win or Draw @ 1.74Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.93

FC Augsburg vs. FC Heidenheim

Augsburg is a team that generally operates without much fanfare, typically winning the matches they are expected to win and consequently occupying a mid-table position for much of the season. They are currently coming off two consecutive 2-0 victories against Werder Bremen and Union Berlin, suggesting they are in good form and have a strong opportunity to secure a third consecutive win.

Conversely, Heidenheim has suffered 12 losses in 18 matches, a statistically concerning record

Augsburg ML @ 1.95

+

Coventry ML @ 1.80
Liverpool vs Ipswich - Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.75
Middlesbrough ML @ 2.20
Bristol City ML @ 1.87
Mönchengladbach ML @ 1.70
Monaco ML @ 1.72
Sevilla ML @ 1.75

POD Middlesbrough ML @ 2.00 with Coolbet | 1 units

+

Lille Under 0.5 Goals @ 2.07 with Coolbet | 1u
Hull ML @ 2.15 with Coolbet | 1u
Millwall ML @ 2.30 with Coolbet | 1u
Swansea ML @ 2.80 with Coolbet | 1u

• Villareal DC + Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.73 with ComeOn
• Troyes DNB @ 1.50 with Coolbet
• Pachua -1 AH @ 1.53 with Coolbet

Ipswich vs Brighton – BTTS Yes @ 1.71 with Coolbet | 1u

Western Sydney Wanderers ML @ 1.85 with Coolbet | 1u

Good Luck Everyone 

Club Brugge -1 AH @ 2.02 with Bet365 | 1u

Plymouth ML @ 2.32 with Betsson | 1u

Club Brugge ML @ 2.03 with Coolbet | 2u

Lazio vs Como

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher to see Lazio as underdogs for tonight’s game. I mean, sure, the 6-0 hammering by Inter was a bit of a shocker, and they did get a bit of a spanking from Roma in the derby.

But hey, Lazio did have a pretty solid first half against Atalanta. And while the suspensions of Castellanos, Zaccagni, and Gila is a bummer, their coach has been pretty good at shuffling the deck all season.

A lot of folks are high on Como these days, and they do play a pretty fun brand of football. But let’s not forget that Como are basically a home team. Away from their cozy stadium, they’ve been as reliable as a flat tire. Como has taken 18 out of 12 points at home and are 1-3-6 away, sitting at 17th in the table if you only look at away performances.

Lazio ML @ 1.96 with Coolbet | 2u

Aston Villa vs West Ham

There’s no doubt in my mind that this match means way more to West Ham. Aston Villa? They’ve got the Premier League and the Champions League to worry about. I mean, who has time for a little FA Cup match when you’re juggling those big boys? Especially with Everton on Wednesday and then the mighty Arsenal just three days later. Talk about a busy schedule!

West Ham, on the other hand, just sacked Lopetegui. A fresh start could be just what the doctor ordered, especially considering the rumors about him and the players not seeing eye to eye. This could be the perfect opportunity for them to turn things around. Maybe they’ll play a bit harder, just to show Lopetegui what they think of him.

West Ham DC @ 1.95

Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

These two teams have a habit of drawing. It's almost like they've got a secret handshake or something. Dortmund is unbeaten at home; Leverkusen are unbeaten away. It's a match made in heaven, or perhaps a stalemate in hell. I'm backing Leverkusen as the second-best team in Germany, and Wirtz and Boniface have the skills to punish Dortmund.

Majority of the teams try to shut-down Wirtz in the middle, which gives spaces on the wings for Leverkusen, and I'm sure that could repeat today.

Leverkusen to Win or Draw + Leverkusen over 5.5 Corners @ 2.94 with Betsson

/pmip.club

Liverpool -1.5 AH @ 2.10 | 2 units

Fulham ML @ 1.58 | 2 units

• Chelsea ML @ 1.98

• Newcastle ML & BTTS Yes @ 2.52

• Southampton ML @ 3.41

• West Ham - Under 0.5 Goals @ 2.55

• Leeds ML + Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.75

• Metz ML @ 1.80

• Sheffield United DNB @ 1.74

• Lille -1 AH @ 1.97

• Fiorentina vs Napoli - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.70

• Venezias - Empoli - Under 2 Goals AH @ 2.20

• Verona vs Udinese - BTTS Yes @ 1.81

Leeds -1.25 AH @ 1.85 with Betsson | 1u

Sunderland DNB @ 1.66 with Coolbet | 1u

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE
Wish you a new year with plenty of profit and good health 

Ipswich vs Chelsea - Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.78

Aston Villa ML @ 2.02

Manchester United vs Newcastle - Over 3 Goals @ 2.20

Hellas Verona - Under 0.5 Goals @ 1.98

AFC Wimbledon ML @ 1.80

*All odds from Coolbet

I'm going with my gut feeling on this one. Fulham's been impressive lately, while The Cherries are missing some key players like Kluivert, Tavernier, Smith, and Araujo. I reckon the odds are at least a few tenths too high!
Fulham ML @ 2.49 with Coolbet

Okay, I know Tottenham are rubbish right now, and they'll probably leak at least one goal against Wolves, but I reckon they're gonna bombard Wolves' goal and bang in 2 or 3 themselves. Why? Well, Ange's probably getting sacked if they don't!
Tottenham ML + BTTS @ 2.61 with Coolbet

Dusan Vlahovic is gonna be where all the action is. He made the move from Tuscany to Turin back in 2022, and let's just say there's still some bad blood there.He's going to have Fiorentina's defenders keeping him on a short leash. Could easily lose his cool. A bit of a long shot, but odds too good to skip.
Vlahovic to get booked @ 7.50 with Bet365

Daily Double

Leeds ML + Liverpool ML @ 2.25 with Coolbet

After that dreadful 4-1 beating from Portsmouth, Frank Lampard and his Coventry crew bounced back in style, smashing Plymouth 4-0 on Boxing Day. Coventry's actually playing better than their league position suggests, with stats to back it up, and I've got a feeling Lampard's company might be climbing the table this winter.

Now, Millwall's no pushover, but they're coming off a loss at Norwich, and I just can't see them pulling themselves together for their second away game on the bounce. I mean, they've only managed one win in their last eight games, and their attack looks about as sharp as a butter knife - just two goals in their last five matches!
Coventry ML @ 1.87 with Coolbet

In classic Middlesbrough fashion, Boro managed to let a 3-0 lead slip to a 3-3 draw at home against Sheffield Wednesday on Boxing Day.You never know which version of Middlesbrough is going to show up to the match and whether they're going to pull a fast one on us or not!

As for Burnley, they're facing their second away game in quick succession. It's going to be tough for them to recharge. I reckon Boro will bounce back, they have the capacity and the talent, but I'm playing it safe with a DNB.
Middlesbrough DNB @ 1.82 with Coolbet

Sunderland just keeps on rolling! Even when they're not playing their best football, The Black Cats somehow manage to snag points from their matches.That's keeping them right up there at the top of the table. Things are looking way less optimistic for Stoke though - they've been sliding down the table these past few weeks. They're completely off their game, and their last league win? You'd have to go all the way back to early November to find it!Sunderland DNB @ 1.61 with Coolbet

It's been great for the wallet betting against Plymouth all autumn - they haven't won a single game and only managed 2 draws.And get this - for every goal they've scored, they've let in a whopping 11! Even though Oxford isn't anything special, why mess with a winning formula, right?
Oxford ML @ 1.90 with Coolbet

Luton are just like Plymouth - absolutely dreadful on the road. Sure, they've managed to scrape together one win and one draw, but they've lost 9 games, including 8 in a row!These teams met a few weeks back, and Luton barely escaped with a 1-1 draw after Swansea dominated the entire match with an xG of 2.16. If we see a repeat performance today, Swansea should be taking all three points this time around!
Swansea ML @ 2.02 with Coolbet

The Toffees managed to hold Manchester City to a 1-1 draw and, didn't give away too many dangerous chances.If they can pull off the same defensive masterclass against Nottingham, they're bound to frustrate their opponents. This match has all the makings of a real slugfest - you know, one of those trench warfare type games with hardly any clear chances. But given my rotten luck with betting on full-time draws, I'm playing it safe and just going for a first-half draw instead!
Everton vs Nottingham - HT Draw @ 2.00 with Coolbet

Results so far: 99-77-6, +23.9 units

Today:

I was first looking into Atalanta to win and BTTS @ 4.75 with Coolbet, but I'm having second thoughts.
After getting pipped by Inter, I suspect that Lazio will play more defensively and cynically to avoid repeating that, and it wouldn't be a big surprise if the match ended 1-0 either way, especially considering that Retegui, Scamacca, Isaksen, Noslin, and Pedro are all at risk of missing the match. However, I still rate Atalanta slightly higher than Lazio despite playing away.

• Atalanta DNB @ 1.72 with Coolbet
• Lazio Most Cards (AH) @ 2.14 with Coolbet

Milan and Roma are two teams that have dropped points in Cagliari, but Inter cannot afford to do the same. Although Inter is not necessarily worse compared to last season, there is tougher competition, and there are not many points separating the top 3 teams. A typical Inter victory usually involves taking the lead in the first half and scoring a 2-0 in the second, and I'm betting on something similar here unless Martinez decides to come to life and score a hat-trick or something like that. He tends to perform well against Cagliari. Inter keeping a clean sheet is also an option, but I usually have bad luck with those bets.

• Inter ML + Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.38 with ComeOn

Scottish Double

• Ayr United ML + Partick Thistle ML @ 2.44 with Betsson
<

Only two games from PL tonight, so I got a parlay from Betsson.

Arsenal to win + Arsenal Under 3.5 Goals + Brighton vs Brentford - Under 3.5 Goals available at 3.08 with Betsson

I believe we are going to have a similar matchup as the Liverpool match yesterday. Ipswich is going to park the bus, Arsenal scoring 2-3, and taking it easy because they got a new game in less than a week + Saka is out.
Brighton scores an average of 2 goals at home,, while Brentford scores an average of 1 goal on the road.

Last year it ended 2-1 to Brighton at AmEx, so hopefully a repeat.

 Liverpool to win to nil + Under 4.5 Goals + Mo Salah to have 0.5+ SOT @ 3.20 with Bet365