Jersey2CT

What's up Forum!!! 

First post this season...  did good Thursday, split Friday.

Here are a few of my thoughts for the early games today...  I will post the afternoon and late picks later.  GOOD LUCK

Cal @ NC  -  Pick = OVER 56

Don't see much defense in this game...  I know there are a lot of weapons gone, but I am a believer in systems (not players).  should be 30 something 30 something easy.

Mary @ Texas  -  Pick =  OVER 56

I think Texas will start the season with a bang...  scoring early and often.  They are always shaky on defense so Mary should score.  40 something 20 something here.

Wyoming @ Iowa  - Lean = Wyoming (+13)

I like Josh Allen at QB for the cowboys... he should be able to find scoring options even with a new supporting cast.  Just hoping their experienced defense can keep them in the game.

Forgot a lean towards AirForce/SJSt OVER 55 later tonight...

Adding:

Picks
====
Navy -8 @ ECU  -  ECU is in the middle of a wasted season...  1-7 over last 8 games while navy is ready to clinch their division with a W.

TexTech -3.5  @ ISt  -  reasons stated above and statistically do well against teams off a bye...  like 15-1 over last 16...  also 15-1 vs team off a win!

PennSt/Rutgers Over 55  -  its dropping, but i don't see a shutout.

Wash/AzSt Over 63 -  its also dropping, but i don't see a shutout here either... 40 something 20 something kinds score





Leans
=====
NorthTex +6 vs SoMiss

UtahSt/Nevada Under 55  - Should be an good conf game similar to like and NFL style game... under

Stanford -11 @ Cal  -  Defense should step for this one after slacking a bit last week.  Cal defense is horrid.

Been offline the last few weeks...  back on for today...

PICKS
=====
Northwestern/ Minnesota Over 45  - See a few back and forths before defenses settle in...  20 something 20 something kinda game.

Indiana/ Michigan Over 52  - This should be a weird game...  mich figure things out...  indy knows they can score...  i see points...  40someting 20 something kinda game

Pitt/Duke Over 62 -
Defense Rank (of some of the teams Pitt Played this season)
==========
PennSt=40 --> 42-39 W 
Miami=24  --> 28-51 L 
VaTech=15 --> 36-39 L 
Clem=14   --> 43-42 W 
(Duke=58) -->  ???  o/u 62
Throw in the fact that Pitt is 127th on pass defense... and DUke is 68th in pass Offense (all the above teams are above 40th in pass offense with exception of CLemson!)  I see points...

Tulsa +1 @ UCF - I have been riding UCF all season, but a Tulsa team with a chip on their shoulder is not someone i want coming to town...  especially if my offense ranks 106th...  how do they keep up?  haven't seen a fast paced offense like this yet (although coach is Org offense co last season ;-)


Leans
====
Wiscy/Pur OVER 49  -  Wiscy should pour it on against a terrible Boilermaker D

TexTech -4 @ Ist - They win this week and have Baylor next week (who is beatable)...  sitting at 4-6...  bowl hopes??

Clem -22 @ Wake = CLem off the upset loss...  i don't see how Wake scores on them today...  42-6 type of score today.


Teaser
=====
Neb, Temp, Navy = 10pt teaser

Gut Shot $Line Parlay
================
Okla St and Wash St

Good Luck to all

CRAP...   Pitt/Duke OVER is my best play for today.  You are making me re-think it.
Aside from the emotion angle you are playing, here is why i am the other way:

Defense Rank (of some of the teams Pitt Played this season)
==========
PennSt=40 --> 42-39 W 
Miami=24  --> 28-51 L 
VaTech=15 --> 36-39 L 
Clem=14   --> 43-42 W 
(Duke=58) -->  ???  o/u 62

Throw in the fact that Pitt is 127th on pass defense... and Duke is 68th in pass Offense (all the above teams are above 40th in pass offense with exception of Clemson!)  I see points...


Love the Tulsa and Wazzu plays...  Good Luck

Did well on the plays above...

Now on to nightcap...
Love Wyoming later at 10
Like Nevada Over later at 10

7:30s
Like PennSt
Like FlaSt
Lean Ohio st
Lean SanDiegoSt
Lean kentucky


Good luck!!!!

And now for the nightcap...
Love Wyoming later at 10
Like Nevada Over later at 10

7:30s
Like PennSt
Like FlaSt
Lean Ohio st
Lean SanDiegoSt
Lean kentucky


Good luck!!!

THANKS

Doing ok so far in the morning...  depending on how the Rutgers, GTech and Pitt OVERs all do...

2:30
MiddTenn OVER 63 ( Should be a back an forth game for the most part)

3:30
ColSt -16 (Fres St season is over...  only beat an FBS2 team...  given up... Best Play)

Troy -21  (Troy know to not take UMass lightly...  they will start and end big)

Baylor -7  (Black out jerseys today to protest coach firing...  emotion game!)

Ok St +3  (They are ROLLING!!!  $Line here...)

Memphis -3 (we have been riding SMU...  but today they get put back in their place... Best Play)

WashSt OVER 64 (Like This Total...  have is 40something 30something)

Leans
Maryland +31  (Weird Feeling about Mary Coach being ex Def Coordinator at Mich...  but Mary does suck)

Back later with the night game thoughts...
Good Luck to all

Last few weeks have leveled me back out after a great start to the season...  let's hit them hard today...  lots of road picks today...  that always worries me in college foots!!!

Picks
Houston/UCF OVER 59  -  I think UCF will score some points on a Houston Defense that has seemed to give up the last 2 games.  Houston will score for sure today..  40 something 20 something.

WestVa -3.5 @ OkSt  -  WVa looking to make a run...  defense playing Very well...  road test here and they should step up

Wash -10 @ Utah  -  I think Utah's only weekness is against the pass...  ouch, Wash pass attack is extemely good (like #3).  They will be focused today to make sure they don't slip up against a Utah team that always plays well at home.

Baylor -4 @ Tex  -  WHAT?  4 pts...  tex sucks...  easy money here.

Temple -7 vs Cincy  -  Cincy sucks...  Temple playing very well now, good win last week against USF...  momentum should carry here.

TexTech +9.5 @ TCU  -  Too many points here... wouldnt be surprised if Tech wins outright

NWest +27  @ OhioSt  -  Too many pts here too...  Ohio St will be so worried about winning big to keep playoff hopes alive that they will forget about playing football against a Wildcat Team that has steadily improved all season.

Mary/Indy OVER 52  -  I think this one is a situation will both teams weakness will assist opponents offense...  see 30 something 20 something game 

SMU +2.5 @ Tulane  - Beat them last year...  better this year...  as long as no let down from Houston win last week, this should be easy

MidTenn -17 @ FIU  -  This team can score, FIU will not have an answer and slowly go down big

So Miss -16 vs Marsh  -  Marsh sucks...  lost season...  SoMiss weird season so far, but lost to some tough opps (LSU, UTSA and Troy)

Clem -3 @ FSU - I know, FlaSt has not been a dog at home since 2011, but i think this number is would be more if it wasnt for Clem close game last week against NCSt...  it think that was a look ahead to FSU only.  Tigers will be ready!!!


Leans
Nebraska +9
ArkSt - 20
MidTenn OVER 62

FUN $Line Parlay
UCONN
TexTech


GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!!

Got beat up again last week... let's hope the slide ends and we head back in the right direction today.

Picks
KSt +13 - their defense should keep them in this at Okla... I see a very close one here.

Pitt/UVa OVER 62 - wow... way too low

Troy -17 - they should handle GSU easy at home

Neb -3.5 - I know it's at Indy, but I like this Neb squad... got them by 9+ today

VTECH -20 - I know there is history in this one, but this tech defense is too much for Cuse

Houston -21 - last year after losing to uconn, Houston came out and crushed a great navy team... they will respond well and crush Tulsa after last week's loss.

ASU/Col OVER 62 - Should be lots of scoring in this night game.

Leans
Illinois -4
GTech -10
Akron +14
CMU. -2

$line parlay shot
EMU (+7)
NWest (+7)

Got beat up again last week... let's hope the slide ends and we head back in the right direction today.

Picks
KSt +13 - their defense should keep them in this at Okla... I see a very close one here.

Pitt/UVa OVER 62 - wow... way too low

Troy -17 - they should handle GSU easy at home

Neb -3.5 - I know it's at Indy, but I like this Neb squad... got them by 9+ today

VTECH -20 - I know there is history in this one, but this tech defense is too much for Cuse

Houston -21 - last year after losing to uconn, Houston came out and crushed a great navy team... they will respond well and crush Tulsa after last week's loss.

ASU/Col OVER 62 - Should be lots of scoring in this night game.

Leans
Illinois -4
GTech -10
Akron +14
CMU. -2

$line parlay shot
EMU (+7)
NWest (+7)

Finally had a losing week last weekend, but still doing well overall.  I had Clemson, Tulsa Over and Boise St last night (all wins, not posted)...  so let's hope that rolls into today!

Picks
Cincy -3 @ UConn -  Cincy owns UConn...  not playing well so far, but should turn it around today.  Weather is holding up, so without the rain, I think cincy moves the ball well today.  31 - 17 Cincy

GTech/Pitt OVER 51 - I know Pitt has a top 5 rush defense, but they really havent played any rushing teams.  I guess the total is so low because both teams love to run.  Either way, pitt gives up 31pts a game (27 to marsh last week).  I see a 30something to 20 something kinda game here.

Houston -17  -  I dont see how Navy will keep up with the scoring of houston...  and houston's defense is playing way better than last years squad...  they should have an answer for the one demensional run of navy's triple option.  42-17 Houston

Toledo/EMU OVER 66  -  Toledo should put up 45+ and a much improved EMU should hang for most of the game...  scoring 27+.  I am leaning EMU here also..  48-34 Toledo

OHio St/Indy OVER 60  -  First of all, OhioSt always has the potential to score 60, while keeping opponents off the board.  But in this case, Indy should score a couple TDs.  49-21 Buckeyes

SDSt/UNLV OVER 53  -  I hate playing UNLV games...  seem fixed to me, but this one should go way over even though the line is dropping from 58 to 53 for some reason!

Leans
USF - 16 vs ECU  -  ECU falling apart, watching their high hopes season go down the tubes losing 3 straight..  USF with a bounce back win last week to get back going in the right direction imediately following the FLSt loss.  44-21 USF

NoIll +17 @WMich  -  We have been going against the Huskies every week, but this time i like them...  they own WMich (7 straight), so even with a less caliber team this season, 17 seems like too many 34-24 WMich

TTech +10 @KSU - KSt defense obviously can hold...  keeping WVa to 17pts, but TTech offense is better.  Seems like whoever is at home crushes the other, but today should be a close one.  28-24 KSt

Late Games - Leans
Miami and Stanford

$Line SHOT

NDame(+3) to GTech(+6)

Good Luck to all

PICKS
UCF @ ECU OVER 62   -  Wow...  cant believe this opened at 58...  pushed to 62 since.  still think it will go way over.

Col vs Org St OVER 59  (BEST PLAY)  -  Buffs avg over 42 with a defense that gives up pts...  40 something - 30 something game here at least

Miami -7 @ GTech  - Miami had them 31-7 in the after 3 last year...  38-21 final.  I think Miami is much better this season and if they watched any of the Clemson game that shut down GTech offense, this could be an easier win than expected for the U even on the road

Ball St (-4) vs NoIll  (BEST PLAY) -  I said this last week, NoIll is fallin apart...  dont see that changing on the road this week.

Mich vs Wisc OVER 44 - Mich put up more than this total every week thus far...  avg 52...  now they wont score?  I like their D too, but Wisconsin not scoring 2-3 times doesn't seem possible...  i have it 34-24

Troy (-14.5) @ Idaho  - Revenge for Troy here losing at home last year, but not only that, this troy team is playing great ball this season hanging with the big boys.

SDSt @ USA OVER 51  - State avg almost 40 pts a week...  Revenge from last seasons lost will keep them focused.


LEANS
Lean - NMex (-10)  -  SJSt is really bad (and so is NMex), but with their QB Potter most like out again on the road, NMex should get hungry for a much needed win.

So Miss (-24) vs Rice  -  Rice is brutal on the road and i dont see anything different than the 65-10 pounding from last years game

Mich St (-5.5)  @ Indy -  If Mich St didn't choke last week, this line would be double digits...  i think that loss will make them play better defense/focus.

MTU  (-17) @ NTex  - This team can score, and Ntex defense is horrible, a couple of stops on D for MTU and this one should get ugly.


Money Line Parlay (GUT Shot) = Navy (+7) to EMU (+3) both $Line



Ur Welcome Chimconnho...  hope that's all u followed...  mid day killed me...  lets hope the evening pans out better...

Well...  8-2 last week and 9-2 week before...  crazy...  (also had TexTech on Thurs and BYU Over last night...  not posted)
Sooner or later this will come to a screeching halt.  Hopefully not today!!!


PICKS
UCF @ ECU OVER 62  -  Wow...  cant believe this opened at 58...  pushed to 62 since.  still think it will go way over.

Col vs Org St OVER 59 (BEST PLAY)  -  Buffs avg over 42 with a defense that gives up pts...  40 something - 30 something game here at least

Miami -7 @ GTech  - Miami had them 31-7 in the after 3 last year...  38-21 final.  I think Miami is much better this season and if they watched any of the Clemson game that shut down GTech offense, this could be an easier win than expected for the U even on the road

Ball St (-4) vs NoIll  (BEST PLAY) -  I said this last week, NoIll is fallin apart...  dont see that changing on the road this week.

Mich vs Wisc OVER 44 - Mich put up more than this total every week thus far...  avg 52...  now they wont score?  I like their D too, but Wisconsin not scoring 2-3 times doesn't seem possible...  i have it 34-24

Troy (-14.5) @ Idaho  - Revenge for Troy here losing at home last year, but not only that, this troy team is playing great ball this season hanging with the big boys.

SDSt @ USA OVER 51  - State avg almost 40 pts a week...  Revenge from last seasons lost will keep them focused.


LEANS
Lean - NMex (-10)  -  SJSt is really bad (and so is NMex), but with their QB Potter most like out again on the road, NMex should get hungry for a much needed win.

So Miss (-24) vs Rice  -  Rice is brutal on the road and i dont see anything different than the 65-10 pounding from last years game

Mich St (-5.5)  @ Indy -  If Mich St didn't choke last week, this line would be double digits...  i think that loss will make them play better defense/focus.

MTU  (-17) @ NTex  - This team can score, and Ntex defense is horrible, a couple of stops on D for MTU and this one should get ugly.


Money Line Parlay (GUT Shot) = Navy (+7) to EMU (+3) both $Line

Good Luck to all

Well, went 4-0 last week on picks (3-2 on leans)...  that means I will most likely shit the bed today.  But, let's see!

Picks

ECU +13.5 @ VTech - VTech defense is back??? BC ranks 122 on offense so 49-0 shutout is not impressive to me.  ECU can score and plays well on offense (rank 11 even with 5 missed opportunities in redzone last week!)  Maybe buy 1/2 to have 2 scores, but i think this game stays close either way.

CMich -4 @ UVA  -  CMich is hungry for first 4-0 in forever...  UVA is on downward spiral and it feels like they can't quite figure things out yet on either side of the ball.  Not sure they correct everything in a week

Mich (-17) vs Penn St -  Penn St is beat up on D...  Mich pass def is doing great, and Penn St can't run the ball.

Mich St OVER 56  -  I think Mich hangs 45+ again today (did in first 3 games).  As long as Penn St scores, over should be easy.

Troy -20 vs NMexSt - NMexSt is struggling bad, especially on the road.  Troy is clicking right now... high off SoMiss win last week... hung with Clem (24-30) week before...  confidence!

Ball St -3 @ FAU  -  FAU is 113 on offense and 113 on defense so far.  Not sure how they stay in a field goal game.  Ball by 10+

SoMiss -12 @ UTEP  -  SoMiss should take this one by 17+.  Their defense will step up today and the offense will score on UTEP swiss cheese defense.


Late Leans
Sucks...  all favorites in the later games...  leaning Stanford, Baylor and Nebraska.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!

First post of the season, so no record yet.  I have been up and down so far, but looking to settle in the right direction!

Picks:

Miami -3.5 @ AppSt  -  Okay, i will bite too...  I think the U's OLine is too big (with 2 very good backs) and the defense will be too much for AppSt.  I see Miami by 10+

GTech -6.5 vs Vandy  - Look for GTech to pull out early and not get into a backyard brawl.  GTech by 10+

Col/Mich OVER 55  -  BEST PLAY!!!!  Wow...  i see this way over 60+  especially if Buffs stay in the game which I think they will...  19 is too many also...  this should be a 40something to 20 something game

Navy -5 @ Tulane  -  I dont think Navy will let another team hang around like they did with UConn last week.  Tulane runs similar offense as Navy so the shipmen's D should be ready.


Leans:

UCONN -4  vs UVA  -  Well, UConn is playing some ball.  i like them at home to rebound from tough loss at navy.  UCon by 7+

UNLV/CMich OVER 55  -  Swiss cheese defenses with decent offenses.  OVER 64+

Oregon +3 ($Line) @ Neb - I like the ducks to step up to their first test of a tough road game...  this will define their season and they know it!

SDSU -10 @ NoIll -  These guys are on fire...  and NoIll heading opposite direction with no QB.
 
ECU +3 ($Line) @ SoCar  -  I like ECU to come in looking for the upset here...  gut feeling on this pick only.


I am still looking at the late games...  more to come...  best of luck to all

THANKS

Zona - 
Utah  -  looks like
Ark St - pending... 

Dude...  I haven't posted in a long time, but I definitely look for your posts anytime I decide to play...  GREAT JOB all year. Its weird but I feel like your picks are worth more than your record as good incite sometimes led me to either no-play or even go with a side or total in the game you capped. 
I decided to post my plays during the bowl season and am GLAD to see you are on the Zona OVER also... Really like the play.

Best of luck in the post season bowls!
(PS - I have Clemson in a small future play at 25-1 at season start...  hope that cashes in.)

I havent posted in quite some time... but always read the forum whenever its time to play...  figured I would try to make a run at the bowls.  GOOD LUCK to all 

Picks: 
Zona OVER 64
Utah -2
Ark St +1

Leans:
Utah UNDER 50
AppSt - 7

Zona/NMex - With Solomon back under helm today, I think the well rested cats take this one easy.  I know NMex beat Boise, but that is always a rival type battle game.  i have Cats by 2TDs in a very high scoring game.

Utah/BYU - This is going to be a scrappy game...  Utah will need to win this one with their defense if you ask me.  But I think they try to redeem what was looking to be a magical season with a bowl victory.  I have Utah by 4 in a low scoring battle.

Ohio/App St - I see no reason why App St doesnt finish the season strong.  Ohio basically snuck into the post season with a couple of late season victories.... and I usually teams like Ohio that are rolling at the end, but I think they are outmatched here.  App St only loses are to ArkSt and Clem.  I have App St by 10+

SJSt/GS - I don't like this game at all...  I haven't watched these teams play much this year so I don't have a good lean here.  GTMH i would chose SJSt.

ArkSt/LT - I really, really like ArkSt here...  I watched and road this team all year and dont see any reason why they wouldnt continue to roll into the post season.  Many people in forum are on LT, but I like ArkSt to win by a TD or more.