JUSTWINBABY61

36-32 -2.6

Dallas+7 x3.....c'mon, Houston is not elite...7 seems crazy as long as Dallas has not quit on the year, I don't think they quit on the year...Here is why im going dallas..
The team that delivers the most qb hits is 64-19 {77%} Houston does not pass block well, is #30 giving up 3.5 sacks a game, the last three games,they are yielding 4.7 sacks a game!!

They received 5 interceptions last game out and still lost the game....Before that they lost to the JETS! I can't lay 7 with a team like this...

Texans are off a home loss on SNF last week and back in primetime again. Teams coming off a home loss in primetime are just 14-37 SU when playing in primetime the next week since 2010.

Historically, the Texans franchise have been terrible in night games. They're 1-2 ATS in night games this year and 13-30-1 ATS since 2003.
What’s becoming a clear angle for Stroud. He’s 8-4 ATS as an underdog and 5-10 ATS as a favorite in his pro career

35-28 +10.3

Rams-1 -120 x 4 ..... I don't know why Miami is getting so much respect here, they don't beat winning teams, I think beat one last year in the cowboys...

Tua has faced eight teams at 50% win pct or higher in night games, he is 2-6 SU/ATS, losing six consecutive games SU.

When Tua is on the road vs. teams with a win pct of 50% or higher, he is 4-11 SU, he’s lost 8 consecutive games in that spot.

Overall, Tua has struggled overall in night games. He’s 3-9 ATS in his career and has lost five consecutive starts ATS in night games, including going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as an underdog.

?It’s been a bit since Tua won and covered a game, you have to go back to the day before Christmas of last year. He’s 1-6 SU/ATS in that span.

How do you tap the same leg twice give a TD?

Cowboys+6 -115 x5...

Dak’s career, he has played 24 games on extended rest during the season, and he is 18-6 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 5.9 PPG.

Dak has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games on extended rest and is 12-3 ATS in the spot since 2019, best mark in the NFL.

?Since 2003, the most profitable coach ATS on extended rest? Mike McCarthy at 38-23-3 ATS (62.3%). He was 25-18-3 ATS with the Packers and is 13-5 ATS with the Cowboys.

Dating back to Christmas of last year, Purdy is just 1-6 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU on the season, with his lone cover coming against the Seahawks on TNF this year.

?The 49ers are now 4-6 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play. His teams (Panthers, Niners) are 21-32 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.

In games McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.

@BobbyMi

 Leans... Bears,Bills

@tboon

 He is out, certainly I'd like him in there, but the Bengals are pretty much in a must win situation and I expect more effort out of them than the Eagles coming off the Giants blowout...

28-20 +19

Bengals-2 -120 x4
Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter,Last 20 years, only three teams have scored 0 1Q pts through Week 7.
2021 Jets (finished 4-13)
2008 Lions (finished 0-16)
2005 Cardinals (finished 5-11)
remember last year the Eagles collapsed, There is something wrong with this team....

Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 29 times in his career; he's 22-6-1 ATS
Dating back to 2022, Burrow is 10-2 SU vs. the NFC, including 12-6-1 SU in his career. He’s 10-1 SU in his last 11 games vs. NFC. As a favorite vs. NFC, he’s 10-2 SU.

26-20 +14

Rams+3 -120 x3

Sitting at 2-4 this is a must win games for the Rams,They will bring the effort.... we got the best coach here, Mcvay is 13-6 ATS on short rest, covering 4 in a row,and 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games in this spot. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 5-1 ATS on short rest.
Vikings could be in let down mode tonight,Teams who are undefeated and then suffer their first loss, who have to play on TNF the next week, are just 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS since 1990.
 The Curse of the Lions...Teams after facing the Lions are 0-4 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 26 PPG and 14-23 ATS over the last three seasons.

Bengals-5 x3....The Browns are 8-16 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 151 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. With an ATS loss to the Bengals, Stefanski would move into last place. Stefanski is 27-22-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.

Road favorites finished 9-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 6 and are 12-0 SU/ATS over the last two weeks.

How bad has Watson been recently? Sixty-two QBs have had at least 200 plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 56th in EPA/play, 56th in success rate, 51st in CPOE (completion percentage over expected).

That marks includes a 3-9 ATS record at home vs. good offenses.

His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Zach Wilson and Will Levis.

Watson’s last 300-yard game came with the Texans in January 2021.

Jamarcus Russell lost -63.8 total EPA on dropbacks in Weeks 1-6 in 2009. It was the record low since at least 2000 before Watson (-66.2) this season.

That drive was obviously intentionally done to fail, first of all, Barkley trucks out of bounds one yard short of the first down by choice, bringing that to third & one, Philadelphia has three timeouts, Hurts about 28 seconds or so left, the clock was already stopped, Hurts was in the shotgun, they call time out, so I expected them to get into the tush push, but call the time out to go back into the shotgun again, Hurts gets sacked, so here comes the field goal, it gets blocked, oh by the way the laces were facing the kicker too, Cleveland recovers the fumble the only one with a good shot at him was the kicker and he just got the hell out of the way after faking an attempt to tackle..... The eagles really need to work on their acting...

That drive was obviously intentionally done to fail, first of all, Barkley trucks out of bounds one yard short of the first down by choice, bringing that to third & one, Philadelphia has three timeouts, Hurts about 28 seconds or so left, the clock was already stopped, Hurts was in the shotgun, they call time out, so I expected them to get into the tush push, but call the time out to go back into the shotgun again, Hurts gets sacked, so here comes the field goal, it gets blocked, oh by the way the laces were facing the kicker too, Cleveland recovers the fumble the only one with a good shot at him was the kicker and he just got the hell out of the way after faking an attempt to tackle..... The eagles really need to work on their acting...

Northwestern+10' x3.... Maryland's quarterback sucks he has Happy feet and his offensive line sucks and the coach calling the plays sucks... Hell even their ball boy sucks..... They be lucky to win this straight up let alone laying 10 and a half.....Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is 0-5 in his career in College Park coming off of a bye week

@Irisheric777

 Diggs is questionable and missed some practice this week.....

@ULLafayettekid

 2 hours ago — Cornerback Caelen Carson will also not play because of a shoulder injury for the second straight week,

Steelers -2' x5...…#25  Andrew Booth for Dallas has to be the worst corner I think I ever seen in the NFL, George Pickens will eat him alive.... Dak ,1-8 ATS as an underdog in his last nine starts.

When opponents score more than 20 pts vs. a Justin Fields-led team, they are 22-0 SU....with the steelers losing last week I look for them to go back to win ugly (low scoring game)....All 13 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 pts or less — with their average being 13 PPG.

Dating back to last season, the Cowboys have struggled ATS recently. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games – the worst mark for any NFL team in that span.

Dak has had his struggles as an underdog. He’s 16-18 ATS in his career, but 1-8 ATS as an underdog in his last nine starts.

Since 2020, he’s 3-10 ATS as a dog. Here are the only QBs worse: Bryce Young, Minshew, Fields and Mac Jones.

?Dak Prescott is 29-12 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,541) | 37-45-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$1,024

Dak goes up against a tough Steelers defense this week, who is allowing 13.2 PPG, 2nd-fewest in the NFL behind just the Chargers, at 12.5 PPG.

In Dak’s career, he is 3-8 ATS in night games when facing a defense allowing under 20 PPG and he is 17-7-1 ATS when that defense is allowing 20

PPG or more.

2nd half

Rams + 1/2 x2

Rams+3 x3

Bengals ML +120 x 4

2nd half

Jets pk -125 x2