MasterGippy22

UPDATED DOG RANKINGS

 have been super busy last couple of weeks and have been unable to post. I have gone back and double checked my stats and will update the current rankings with comments. Keep in mind what we are looking for . Teams that we can count on to go 6 games and not lose all six as we double each bet.

1. Detroit 2-1 as a dog (.666) doesn't mean much because we wont get to play them much as you can see. Having said that play em if you can.

2. Milwaukee- 11-6 (.647.) Everything we look for in a dog. Model of consistency. Stil;; overlooked by the odds makers. Never lost 3 in a row as a dog

3. San Francisco 9-5 as a dog (.6428) Never lost 2 in a row. Know how to win as a dog. I want them on my team.

4. * Atlanta 8-5 as a dog (.615) Word of caution. This result is somewhat skewed because they won there first 6 in a row as a dog. They have since lost 6 out of 8. Not sure if this is a team I would want on my roster after the all star break when we up the ante and raise our bet sizing. Jury is out til then as we continue to monitor.

5. Baltimore 14-11 as a dog (.56) They are another team that has been money Large sample size and still defying the oddsmakers. Never lost 3 in a row as a dog. As Bill Parcel would say "Ill take a six pack of these guys"

6.  St. Louis 5-4 as a dog.(.555) Small sample size but pretty consistent so far. Nothing that worries me much just don't get much play from them. Never lost  2 in a row as a dog

7.. Twins 18-18 as a dog (.50) Larger sample size and never lost more than 3 in a row. They baffle the odds makers. I want them on the team bus after the all start break.

8. White sox 15-15 as a dog (.50). Another team that baffles oddsmakers . There going to the match with me. They did lose 4 in a row once but this sample siae is pretty large. We will check them out at the 44 game mark, but expect much of the same.

9. Ny Mets 15-16 as a dog (.483) Even though they are a New York team, the oddsmakers are baffled by them. Large sample size and never lost more than 3 in a row,

10. Toronto 8-9 as a dog (.4705) Never lost 3 in a row and a good sample size. See mo reason to keep them off the roster

11. Miami 13-15 as a dog (.4644) After a horrible start losing 6 in a row at one point they have defied Vegas with some timely hitting a good pitching. Pretty large sample size and seemed to have settled into a groove losing no more than 3 in a row, since the bad start. Jury is out because of loss of top pitcher recently so lets see where they are at break.

12. San Diego 12-14 as a dog (.4615) Large sample size and defying the  oddsmakers. They have been money for me in all matches all year. Never lost over 3 in a row. I wont start the bus unless I know there on board.

13. Rockies 10-12 as a dog. (.4545) They are a mystery team just like Seattle who is next on the list. They were solid as a "rock" no pun intended, but have gone streaking..... in a bad way losing 5 in a row as a dog. Not a good sign. Jury is out despite overall record

14. Seattle 10-12 (.4545) Strangest of all teams. They have a 7 game losing streak as a dog, and a six game winning streak. They are kinda of the Tony Romo of our team. Good when there good and bad when bad. They do have King Felix so the jury is is still out for me. Just have to keep an eye on them

15. Nationals 5-6 as adog (.4544) Don't know why I just don't trust them. They lost 4 in a row as dog and sample size is small. The  jury is out til break for me

16. Philadelphia 11-14 as a dog (.444) Pretty darn consistent and never lost more than 3 in a row. I would think we could find a place on the roster for them

17. Yankees 6-8 (.4287) I put them in same category as the Angels who have the same record. Seem to be OK and never lost more than 3 in a row. I think they have less respect from oddsmakers this year for some reason. That's a good thing for us.

18, LAA Angels 6-8 (.4287) Almost the same as Yankees and never lost 3 in a row. After several bad seasons just not getting as much respect as they probably should from Vegas.

19. Arizona 11-18 as a dog (.3795) Another team with a horrible start who appears to have settled down . They lost 5 in a row ro start the season and had another 4 game losing streak, but for some reason I m guessing they will improve by the allstar break. I would probably choose them over Miami at this point if I had to make a choice.

20. Cubs 11- 19 as a dog (.366) Large sample size and they have a few bad streaks but 4 is the most they have lost as dog. By the break we will see where they are overall after 44 games. Im on the fence but I can see keeping them on my ream or cutting them depending on how they do over the next month.

21. Tampa Bay 4-7 as a dog. (.363) A mystery team for me. Not much of a sample size and oddsmakers give them mucho respect which means when they are a dog there is good reason for it (see Oakland when we get to them) Jury is out for me

22. Houston 14-26 as a dog. (.35) Thought they would be at the bottom? Wrong. They have the  largest sample size in 40 games and we probably can say we know more about them than most teams. They started the season with some long losing streaks but look like they have settled in. Im not sure if I will want them on my team but they will be in the mix. When they win they usually produce a hefty price in the winners circle. I am monitoring them closely but I would take them over others yet to come.

23. Boston 2-4 as a dog (.333) Not much to like here. They are never a dog anyway. They are kind of like the promising player who is always hurt. Odds makers give they waaaaay too much undeserving respect. Ill probably put then on the PUP list and forget them

24. LAD 3-6 as a dog (.333) They have had a few more games than Boston . Im on the fence. We will see where they are at the break

25. Pitt 7-14 as a dog (.333) They have actually played better since I put out the don't play them warning. I don't see my opinion changing. They are getting tons of respect for little reason. I stick with my don't play them warning and that goes for all team remaining  below

26. Texas 5-15 (.333) It pains me to say this because I am a lifelong Rangers fan. but they are going down the tubes. The oddsmakers will take advantage of the public who will bet them based on the past. They may end up below the Astros by the Allstar break. DONT PLAY

27, Cleveland 6-13 AS A DOG (.3157) I put the don't play tag on them a while back and for good reason. They are losers as a dog. They are also streaky and given too much respect based on last year.

28 CINNINATTI 5-12 as a dog (.294) I put the don't play tag on them a while baCk and I see no reason to change my mind. Cant win with them as Mike Singletary would say. DONT PLAY

29. Oakland 2-6 as a dog (.25) This a mystery team. One of the best in baseball yet they are unplayable as a dog. Vegas seems to have there number and knows when they are going to lose. I would almost say bet the favorite if there a dog. Sample size is small but doubt Ill issue them a uniform at the allstar break.  Too spooky!DONT PLAY

30  Kansas City 3-13 as a DOG (.23) This was the first team I called out as a no pLay. They stink. They were the first team I cut and I don't see them coming back in the fold. They suck as a dog and you need to have your head examined if you play them.... DONT PLAY

Cincinnati is 4-11 as a dog and playing at a .26 clip as a dog. They have lost 4 in a row as a dog and I see no reason to play them going forward with what they have shown so far. I will continue to monitor their record but based on the data it appears its  time to not play them.  Despite the criticism I'm likely to hear from Lucky its the right call to make.

Update

I have the Reds as a team that may need to be culled they are .28 as a dog in a 14 game sample size. They are a dog today and if they lose today I may make the call on them as a no play.

Mg

Lucky

As far as my  individual results it does matter very much and believe me Ive paid the price. The beauty of this system is you just have to follow the theory. If you followed the theory you are in better shape than me. You may have gotten better pay out on a dog I didn't. I'm not making picks or suggesting individual picks to anyone. I really don't even  care about results of individual games. I invented the system because in theory it made sense and back  testing proves its a winner with the tweaking Ive suggested. What I mean when I say it doesn't matter is that I can't undo a bettor error. All I can do is place the bet on that team next time they area dog and go on. I agree  bookkeeping is a challenge and I'm learning as I go. Ive had to change the way I do things just to keep things straight. Ive gone from betting the big game of the week to 10 bets or more a day. I may publish 2 sets of results if I have time. My actual spreadsheets and what it would look like without bettor error but with my time constraints it will be a challenge. Constructive criticism is always welcome but prove I'm wrong in theory before you accuse me of being misleading to others. If my theory falls apart in practice it will be there for all to see but I think the results will speak for themselves

Including my net winnings for all matches as of the date of posting. Hopefully will have time to update dog rankings as well

Mg

Lucky I will post as soon as I can. I'm not completely done with all the matches. I start new matches while others are still going while I wait for some of these infrequent dogs to give me  me some action. I'm out of town but will try to post my current results no later than Sunday, as they appear on my actual excel spread sheet.

Mg

Hang in their lucky. we are fixing to get fat.

Even after a disaterous Match 2 which we offset by calling off plays on our bottom feeding teams we are starting to "Rock and Roll in Matches 3, 4, and 5 of the Rock League. Even with a ridiculous computer crash that only allowed me to get in 2 games we won both and won have won the rest. Im adding Toronto to my select match 5 in the Rock League in that they won out of Match 4 and they are playing a nice clip as a dog.

Onward we march collecting data

Good Luck

BG

aggravating computer crash when placing my bets earlier. It costs me a  bet on Milwaukee in I new Rock select league. By the time I got to my tablet a couple of games had already started. This used to bother me but I just wait til the next time a particular team is a dog and continue on. I just mention this because some day like Lucky dan always want to critique each play game by game. For my system it doesn't really matter. These things happen

Mg.

Gippy Nation

We are starting a new match 5 today in the Champ League. Good time to jump in if just starting

Champ League Match 5

METS

White sox

PHI

Ariz

MILW

Cubs

We are playing 27 of 30 teams, and have eliminated the bottom feeders ranked 28,29,30 as a dog

KC, Clev and Pitt

Good Luck

MG

Gippy Nation

Do not play Kansas city until further notice. We are playing 27 teams but not KC< Pitt, and Cleveland

Rock Select League Match 5(new match)

Mets 15/17

Phi 15/17

Milwaukee 15/15

MG

I will be starting a Match 5 tomorrow. If you are just now starting with the system this will be an ideal time to begin. If you ask for picks I will be sending them via email until you get the hang of what we are doing. We have two leagues which represent th two books I use called the Champ League 5 min and 160 max. the Rock League is $10 min and $320 max. based on the data I have already made a no play call on Cleveland and Pittsburgh. I am debating cutting KC, but have not made the call. The Pirates and Indians have probably cost  me my match 2 by both losing big money game 6's, in the Champ League, although its not over.

CHAMP LEAGUE

The Champ League will start as normal tomorrow in Match 5 except no Pitt or clev and possibly no KC. 

ROCK LEAGUE (Select)

In the Rock League I am going to play Match 5 with a twist. I am going to pick 10 teams who have played at least 12 games as a dog with the exception of Atlanta, and of course are not still playing in other matches. I am also going to up the ante and say that I believe these teams will not lose 5 games in a row. My minimum bet will be $15 and max bet $240. The teams I have selected are the top ten teams who have the highest winning percentage as a dog and have not been in long losing streaks. It is a reason I eliminated seattle. If we win the team is eliminated from the match  and if we lose we double the bet the next time they are dogs up to a big money game 5. I expect this match to be fast and furious.

MG

My select teams are

1. Milwaukee

2. Rockies

3. Baltimore

4. Texas

5. Philadelphis

6. Mets

7. Yankees

8. Minnesota

9. San Diego

10. Atlanta

Streaks

The only team I consider an anomaly in the above group is Seattle. They won 4 out of 5 to start the year, then lost 7 in a row, and now they have won 3 in a row. That's a 16 game sample but a team I don't know if I can trust, Houston also had a 7 game streak and Miami had a 6 game losing streak to start the season. Its the other X factor we have to look at. Whe I have a larger sample thes trend may be meaningful and they may not

Gippy Nation

I have been promising my complete dog rankings and this may be a good time to list our team in order. If the team has an asterick they have not played more than 12 games as a dog, and the percentage may not mean much, however any team owith over 12 games gives us good insight in how this team will perform as a dog. You have to keep in mind that I am looking for teams I can count on with virtual mathematical certainty not to lose 6 games in a row as a dog. If they have played 12 games I am 75% certain from that sample size they will not let me down. When I see 44 game samples  I will be 90% sure and that's when we turn the heat up. Each team to me is like a player. I am betting that my team of players will fool the oddsmakers one out of 6 times or play above their heads one out of 6. We want as many teams as possible and you cant be too picky or you wont have any action. Some teams are almost never a dog like Detroit and Boston. The Gippy Mendoza line of .30 is a good rule of thumb, and if they have a winning percentage below that you cant count on them. Anything close to .30 is borderline. We also look at streaks,. If a team wins 6 in a row as a dog and then losses 8 in a row they are not much good to us and cant be trusted. If a team has the same win percentage the team that has played the most games is ranked higher. If they have the same games and same percentage we rank the team that is less streaky higher.

Without further ado:

1 Milwaukee (.75)

2. *Atlanta (.75)

3. *San Francisco (.72)

4. *St. Louis (.60)

5. *Nationals (.60)

6. Rockies (.57)

7. Baltimore (.55)

8. Texas (.54)

9. Phi (.50)

10. Toronto (.50)

11. *Dodgers (.50)

12. *Detroit (.50)

13. Mets (.48)

14. Seattle (.47)

15. Yanks (.47)

16. Minnesota (.45)

17. San Diego (.45)

18. White Sox (.40)

19. Miami (.39)

20. Arizona (.35)

21. *Angels (.34)

22. *Oak (.34)

23. *Tampa Bay (.34)

24. Houston (.33)

25. *Boston (.33)

26. Cinncinatti (.31)

27. Cubs (.30)

28. Cleveland (.25)

29. Pitt (.23)

30. *K..C. (.20)

There you have it. Now I was recently criticized for alerting all to not play Pittsburgh and Cleveland as if I was making an emotional decision because Cleveland had cost me a big money game. Emotion has nothing to do with this system. Kansas city is probably going to get the axe and the only reason they are not cut is because they technically have played only 10 games as a dog., but you can see where the trend is heading. They might win there next two so I am keeping them in for now but reluctantly so. There are just so many better teams to play in our matches., it just seems like an unnecessary risk given our data.

In the end the data suggest pretty much what I thought we would be able to count on the top 15-18  teams, and by that I mean top 15 when playing as a dog.

Good Luck and I will keep you posted when to start a Match 5.

MG

No need to start a Match 5 yet because lots of action across the board today. Even have a play on Detroit. I don't have to make a call on KC because they are a favorite today, but if I play them its a big money game 6 in the Champ League.

We are now playing 28 teams and have cut Pitt and Cleveland but we will continue to track them

Mg

I would say that is unfair criticism just because if you follow everything Ive said it has been an ongoing tweaking of a very good original idea. I started out without consulting a mathematician or doing any back testing. I completely changed my mind on the top 15 concept based on back testing and clearly stated so. I think eventually we will end up with a group of teams we can count on not to let us down and there will be some not in the top rankings. I may not get to play Detroit all year! Go back and read what I said about sample size. 12 games is significant. Pitt,Clev,and KC aren't cutting it. I would rather bet the cubs in a match. I could change my mind after tracking them for a while and call them up into a new match. I'm just using data presented to me to make a rational decision. If you blindly bet without considering how they are playing as a dog then why bother to keep up with it. The more games I see these 3 play the better I will feel about playing them. There are 28 teams still in play.I may cut KC but still have 27 in play. Its kind of like having 30 players to play in a match. Who has the best statistics. Who is hot? I appreciate your constructive criticism but this system will always be a work in progress until perfected

Mg

Gippy Nation

I think is time we started using our data to help us formulate strategy going forward as I expect to start a Match 5 possibly as early as tomorrow. We have collected a good deal of information on many teams and its time to start using that info. A twelve game sample sizes is significant , and a 44 game sample is very significant in plotting who we can count on in our matches. Each team is like a player I am using against the oddsmakers over a six game stretch. They need to win at a clip of at least 30% or more or they are not playable. There are several teams over a 12 game sample size so lets look at winning percentage as a dog and trends as far as streaks. I don't care how good a team they are just how they play as a dog. Lets examine the teams we have the most info on down to the least and see if we need to adjust who we play in our matches.

1. Houston

9-21 record as dog. They have won 5 out of their last 12 and had a seven game losing streak. They are right on the cut line of .30.....Borderline

2. Twins 13-15 as a dog. A .46 win rate They had one 4 game losing streak but trending fine lately. They have been a player making the money for us.

3. Chi white sox 11-16 as a dog and a win rate of .40. They lost 3 in a row lately but never more than 3 in a row all year. I'm playnnthem

4. Miami .26 but trending better lately(borderline)

5. Cubs .35 won last 3 as a dog

6.Phi is .50 as dog and never lost 3 in a row ($)

7. Rockies are .58 as a dog and never lost more than 2 in a row ($)

8. San Diego .45 (kachink)

9. Mets .52 as a dog ($)

10.Arizona .31......borderline

Those are our largest sample sizes but there are others with fewer games that bother me more

Pittsburgh (.25)

 3-9 as a dog and lost 6 out of 7. Cut them now before they hurt you further and don't play them in any match til further notice

Cleveland .25

3-9 as a dog and lost 5 straight. They are unplayable and until further notice do not play

Kansas City (.22)

They have only 9 games as a  dog butdon't like what I'm seeing ( borderline)

This weekend I hope to have a dog ranking one through thirty. Be prepared for me to make a don't play call on all borderline teams mentioned above.

Good Luck

Bg

Guppy Nation

Well Cleveland didn't even show up last night. I think it is time to start using our valuable data. Cleveland has now played 12 games as a dog and are 3-9. 12 games is a significant sample size even though there is a 25% margin of error,, we know this is what you can expect of this team. They are below our .30 standard and I am cutting them from all future matches til further notice.

Pittsburgh is up today as a big money game 6. They have played 11 games as a dog, one short of our sample size of significance. In covers tracking they are 3-8 or .27 as a dog, yet ill be putting them up blindly today in my champ league. I have to ask myself if this is a smart decision?. I have already put in my Champ card which reads like this

Tampa Bay 10/14

Pitt 160/168

Seattle 5/6.50

KC 80/80

Now onto the Rock League

I have already put in Tampa Bay 40/54......but what about Pitt? Do I  want to put up $320 on a team that has won 2 out of it last 10 as a dog? They play a double header today so I'm going to pass on game 1. I may play game 2  but if they lose I'm probably going to cut them til further notice. I don't consider this a compromise just a practical use of my data collection and just common sense.

Mg

Cleland was a blow and takes them out of champ league match 2. In our Rock League they are a game 5 $160 wager. All the covers experts are recommending Law tonight. What does our data say about the Indians? 3-8 as a dog and below the hippy Mendoza line. They are underachievers and easy to cap yet I'll leave them in and make a decision about banning them soon. Looks like you just can't trust them. Similarly the Pirates are 3-7as a dog and if they cost us our big money games tonight they are below the hippy Mendoza line and may be banished. Underachievers and easy to cap. Can't let them cost me my bankroll so we shall see if they can avoid banishment. I'm making the call and officially make the guppy threat as to both teams

Good luck