Mauroder

How to Play Strategically in Fantasy Sports (and Win)

https://www.sloansportsconference.com/activities/research-papers/2018-research-paper-finalists-posters/

Abstract: Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is a multi-billion dollar industry with millions of annual users and widespread appeal among sports fans across a broad range of popular sports. Building on the recent work of Hunter, Vielma and Zaman (2016) we provide a coherent framework for constructing DFS portfolios where we explicitly model the behavior of other DFS players. We formulate an optimization problem that accurately describes the DFS problem for a risk-neutral decision-maker in both double-up and top-heavy payoff settings. Our formulation maximizes the expected reward subject to portfolio feasibility constraints. We relate this formulation to the finance literature on mean-variance optimization and in particular, the literature on outperforming stochastic benchmarks. Using this connection we show how our problems can be reduced (via some simple assumptions and approximations) to the problem of solving binary quadratic programs. One of the contributions of our work is the introduction of a Dirichlet-multinomial data generating process for modeling opponents’ team selections. We estimate the parameters of this model via Dirichlet regressions. A benefit to modeling opponents’ team selections is that it enables us to estimate the value of “insider trading” where an insider, e.g. an employee of the DFS contest organizers, gets to see information on opponents’ portfolio choices before making his own team selections. We demonstrate the value of our framework by applying it to both double-up and top-heavy DFS contests in the 2017-2018 NFL season.

 

How to Play Strategically in Fantasy Sports (and Win)

https://www.sloansportsconference.com/activities/research-papers/2018-research-paper-finalists-posters/

Abstract: Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is a multi-billion dollar industry with millions of annual users and widespread appeal among sports fans across a broad range of popular sports. Building on the recent work of Hunter, Vielma and Zaman (2016) we provide a coherent framework for constructing DFS portfolios where we explicitly model the behavior of other DFS players. We formulate an optimization problem that accurately describes the DFS problem for a risk-neutral decision-maker in both double-up and top-heavy payoff settings. Our formulation maximizes the expected reward subject to portfolio feasibility constraints. We relate this formulation to the finance literature on mean-variance optimization and in particular, the literature on outperforming stochastic benchmarks. Using this connection we show how our problems can be reduced (via some simple assumptions and approximations) to the problem of solving binary quadratic programs. One of the contributions of our work is the introduction of a Dirichlet-multinomial data generating process for modeling opponents’ team selections. We estimate the parameters of this model via Dirichlet regressions. A benefit to modeling opponents’ team selections is that it enables us to estimate the value of “insider trading” where an insider, e.g. an employee of the DFS contest organizers, gets to see information on opponents’ portfolio choices before making his own team selections. We demonstrate the value of our framework by applying it to both double-up and top-heavy DFS contests in the 2017-2018 NFL season.

 

 Webmaster, the new revamp covers/wagerline is so confusing ... It's not logical or intuitive from a bettor's point of view. The End User has been forgotten in order to please more mercantile objectives ...

https://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/poolContest.aspx?ID=26053

PuckHeads This Challenge is for You
50 picks per week winner takes all !

Thanks for participating in this year contest and have a great summer !
See Ya Next Year

Covers.com sale offers opportunity to make betED players whole    
29.05.15 15:35  https://calvinayre.com/2015/05/29/business/covers-com-sale-offers-hope-for-beted-players/
Author: Peter Amsel | Comments | Gambling News, Article, betEd, Covers.com, gracenote sports, sports betting
Canadian online sports betting affiliate Covers.com has been acquired by Gracenote, a subsidiary of US media powerhouse Tribune Media.
Gracenote announced on Thursday that it had acquired the Halifax-based Covers.com, along with Covers offshoot SportsDirect Inc. and the Netherlands-based Infostrada Sports. The trio will operate under the banner of Gracenote Sports, Gracenote’s new sports data service, which aims to provide data on global sports leagues and events to broadcasters, sports federations and event organizers.
The deal is a reflection of both the growth of the data-hungry daily fantasy sports industry and the increased momentum behind the push for legal sports bets in the United States. The Chicago-based Tribune is a media giant whose holdings include superstation WGN and 38 other television stations across the US.
Gracenote said the total price tag of its three acquisitions would be US $54m. Assuming at least half of that went to the Halifax crew, perhaps now is a good time to remind everyone of Covers.com’s role in the collapse of online sportsbook betED.
betED was one of a number of online sports betting firms indicted on May 23, 2011, a date that became known as Blue Monday (following the Black Friday action against the three major US-facing online poker companies). Unlike the other indicted sites, most of which were back up and running on alternate domains within days or even hours of the Department of Justice’s action, betED was never heard from again and its customers lost their entire account balances.
Prior to Blue Monday, betED was the top-rated online sportsbook at Covers.com, which reportedly provided 95% of betED’s business. Following the indictments, Covers claimed to be in regular communication with betED’s ownership and further claimed to be attempting to negotiate a transfer of betED’s player database to another online sportsbook, although nothing ever came of these alleged negotiations.
There were plenty of rumblings at the time that questioned betED’s stated excuse for closing – the DOJ had seized its bank accounts – arguing that the actual amount of funds seized was insignificant and that betED’s owners were simply looking for an excuse to shut down and keep the player balances as a consolation prize.
As for the identify of betED’s owners, sources told CalvinAyre.com that Covers/SportsDirect founders Joe Lavers and Paul Macdonald (pictured) were the company’s beneficial owners via a lucrative revenue-sharing deal (estimated at 70%). Macdonald gave an interview to Gambling911.com, calling the ownership allegations “total bullshit” but betED’s Costa Rica-based employees – who were stiffed out of severance by the site’s closure – claimed Lavers had been calling the shots at betEd.
Whatever share of that $54m Gracenote deal is currently sitting in Lavers and Macdonald’s bank accounts, surely there’s enough to right a historical wrong.

San Jose @ New England   Take San Jose to Win

Carnegie Mellon Researchers Say Twitter Analysis Can Help Gamblers Beat the Spread on NFL Games

Netherlands vs Portugal Take the Over 2.5

NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"
Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Wednesday, February 29, 2012, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

https://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

March Madness :The Dance Card

NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"
Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Wednesday, February 29, 2012, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

https://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

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Mauroder

Atlanta v Montreal  Montreal to win

I like Toronto @ home tonite

Hockey Nights in Canada 2010-2011
Hockey Nights in Canada 2010-2011. Welcome PuckHeads ! Your favorite daily contest in back so are your fellow bettors ! As with past seasons we strongly encourage players to bet quality picks over quantity
https://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/poolContest.aspx?ID=17067

 

 

Is this true that :

' The average flyer fan has the brain of a Neanderthal for his appreciation of good hockey plays'

and may I add vote for McCain !

Pride is at stake here boys ! Pride is a feeling !

 

The score in the last game did not reflect what really went happen on the ice !

Habs Rebound tonite

philly v MONTREAL

Montreal will win 2nite

GO HABS GO !!!