RagnarLothbrok

@PublicJoe

 this is wrong. trying to accurately pick WHICH games the Wolves will win in a 7 game series is far more difficult than picking the series. 

a smart gambler knows to take the safe bets

Scott Foster - “Chris Paul’s gone? We need a series extended?”

Phoenix win. KD cant get swept. 

Pels on home court have been BAAAAAD

CJ has been BAAAAAD

BI has been BAAAAAD

Pels getting swept. Lakers getting swept. 

game 1 set the tone if you watched it. there’s no real stars on the court, even Spider hasnt had postseason success. 

Lakers needed Game 3. Suns needed Game 3. Both were pickems. 

Game 3’s get massive bets from bettors of the losing team down 0-2 because of this fallacy that they will “play better with their backs against the wall”.

Sure Magic and 76ers bounced back, so you’re 50-50 if you’re putting a lot of betting weight into “they cant go down 0-3”.

Make sure you’re betting Pels bc of more than backs against the wall.

Pacers now -525 with Damian Lillard out. Classic Doc Rivers collapse job and offseason excuse train. 

Stop placing bets “because the money is lopsided”

These Clips need crazy 3p shooting to win, bc their defense IS NOT GOOD. Its certainly not as good as the Mavs defense.

Mavs WILL advance. Just bet that. Harden and Kawhi dont really care about basketball anymore. 

The Pacers are the best offense in the league. (by most metrics)

Its Darvin Ham. 

now the pacers are probably -300 to advance. 

 Patbev, Malik, Connaughton getting all these minutes is HILARIOUS. Meanwhile TJ Mcconnell is looking like Steph Curry lmao 

Orlando cant shoot 3’s. They’re worst among all playoff teams by a lot and 24th/30 teams in team 3p% regular season. 

If Orlando win its an Under game with their top 10 defense and shoddy offense. 

Its a parlay Orlando Under or pass.

Cleveland wins an Over game, i’ll hedge on that. 

I compelely forgot.

Doc Rivers.

I’m more of a Bucks fan too, the offseason just seems ripe for a Doc Rivers blame train, but this year its easy, Giannis was injured. 

Giannis wont be 100% when he comes back. Its the nature of the playoffs. Embiid is back but look at him. Giannis has a high probability of aggravating. Middleton is having an ankle problem. 

They’re giving more minutes to Malik and Patbev than they should EVER be getting. Jae Crowder looks clumsy. They cant run an actual offense or get an assist to save their lives. 

The Pacers are the best offense in the league. 

The Pacers are the best offense in the league.

The average bettor does not know this, so i had to repeat it. They are as healthy as they’ve been all year, only Mathurin is out but he was a #3 option. Siakam is playing out of his mind and winning against Portis, Miles Turner is beating Lopez pretty easily, and Indiana’s arena will be LOUD losing or not (they’re not fair weather boston fans).

I just dont see how the Pacers arent -200. I put half of my betting account on Pacers-125 to advance ($300).

At one point in the first half Pacers were 11/1 and Bucks were 8/6. 

This series is over. Bucks defense was in shambles- they’re giving MASSIVE minutes to Patbev, Lilard, Malik and Connaughton, all below average defenders. They were turning the ball over a lot, and it doesnt seem like they have an offensive scheme or guard that can get assists. 

Pascal Siakam has been huge for the Pacers, he’s a Bobby Portis clone that has much better offense. 

Take the Pacers to win next game and Pacers to advance. Thank me later. 

dont hyper focus on one game. these players are human. 

a 2 point line move is nothing. lmk when it moves 10. 

bad day 1-3 yesterday.... but tonight...

10-1

TEN AND MFING ONE.

Since the all star break, unders are 37-12.

Bad teams arent hitting their shots (Charlotte, Portland, Wash, Det, Brook, etc) but both the bad teams and good teams are STILL playing solid defense. THIS IS A TREND. Bookies are adjusting, but too little too late. Continue to hit Unders, until you get 2 bad days in a row. 

Covers League Trends

Unders Last 30 Days

110-74 (59.9%)

That’s a statistically significant sample size. 

This is called a Martingale strategy. Its a big losing strategy.

you ooze negativity. why are you here? go flip your coins elsewhere. 

by hyperventilate, do you mean have the best week i’ve ever had in the NBA?

i think i’ll play the trend until defenders start to get tired and teams stop their playoff pushes (maybe in a week).

until then, enjoy the updates. 

Unders are 26-8 now 

they are covering by large margins too. something is happening in the NBA