rebel1927

This $$$$ is for THURSDAY. I will try to remember to re-post this pick in the Thursday thread.

First let me say that I logged on to post this pick and was surprised to find the previous poster with a vastly different opinion. Last week, I posted Notre Dame over Duke in the ACC tournament as one of my $$$$ plays because I questioned Coach K's desire to play 4 games in 4 days in the ACC tournament leading into the NCAA's. Duke laid an egg in that second half and went away in the ACC, not necessarily as planned, but certainly providing the 7 deep rotation a much needed 6 days of rest as opposed to a grueling 4 games in 4 days leading up to the NCAA.

Duke has played the 14th most difficult schedule in the country and, as many may forget, is the defending champion. This is a team that is stocked with McDonalds All Americans that has faced top level competition all season long. On the other bench, UNCW has played a schedule littered with the 130th-200th ranked teams in college basketball. The biggest name on their schedule, a very disappointing 13-16 Georgetown squad, beat them by 10 points. I analyzed the UNCW schedule and could not find a decent team on it. Period. The 25 wins here should be largely discounted due to their 149th ranked strength of schedule.

I did take a moment to read the post above mine and was surprised to see the claim that the length of UNCW would cause Duke problems. I was unaware of UNCW and did not know the starters. What did I find? UNCW starts 4 guards at 6'0", 6'1", 6'5" and 6'5" with a 7' center. Duke counters with 6'2", 6'5", 6'5", 6'9" and 7' Plumlee at center. Thus, if anything, I think it will be UNCW facing a severe height disadvantage at EVERY position vs. a significantly more seasoned opponent than what they are used to seeing.

My final point deals with the pace of play. UNCW will push the pace, but I doubt this will lead to any advantage. Pushing the pace will lead to more possessions per team. Increasing the number of possessions will only widen the Duke advantage. Duke has been playing 7 players for two months with games every few days. They are now coming off 6 days of rest, so I think they will have the legs to run UNCW out of the gym.

I am looking for a Duke 14-16 point win.

My pick is DUKE -10 $$$$