Recon

Winner Winnner

Happy New Year

What better way to shake up a losing streak than to go against all conventional wisdom and instead back a red-hot team defying logic. The Clippers have a chance to finish off a five-game road trip sweep tonight – all since losing All Star Blake Griffin to injury. The bench has been enormous – a huge problem area for the Clipps most of the season – and the improved balance and depth have led to awesome results. They are averaging over 48 points during the streak after being close to 30 most of the year.

JJ Reddick has been shooting with deadly accuracy. He led the team with 26 points in their last outing to compliment Austin Rivers’ season high 22. This is good news for the Clippers, as JJ has averaged 22 against the Pelicans in their last four meetings. It’s nice to have him going well heading into a matchup where they have historically relied on him.

New Orleans has been better lately, but still pretty disappointing overall. They have lost two of their last three games at home and enter at just 10-21 on the season. The Clippers have won 8 of their last 10 meeting with New Orleans and won by an average of 11.1 points. They’ve shown a nice short-term ability to adapt to life without Blake, and I expect them to finish off the road trip the same way tonight.

Got em at +3 Thinking they can win outright

GARBAGE

Despite the poor records, this is a vital game for the Eagles and Redskins, as well as the Giants for that matter. The Eagles luckily catch the Skins at home tonight at the Linc in Philadelphia. Bradford has been a mixed bag, Cousins has been a mixed bag, hell we can say that for this entire division. Strangely enough, if that bag comes up on the good side, whoever makes the postseason could steal a game. I could see the Redskins winning their first round game at home, with the odds and world stacked against them. The Redskins have to win the NFC East first, though.

This is one of the most important games of Sam Bradford’s career. For a guy that has been around for as long as he has, Bradford hasn’t faced a pressure spot like this since he played at Oklahoma. Bob Stoops and Oklahoma haven’t exactly excelled when the pressure is on. We’ll see how they manage in the college football playoff against Clemson, but the Sooners didn’t have that killer instinct with Bradford at the helm, despite a highly successful college career. Braford isn’t the only guy with pressure on him in this game, I think Chip Kelly is feeling it as well. Kelly is just about this game away from getting fired and heading back to college. Not making the postseason here would jeopardize his future plans in the NFL undoubtedly. I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas. Now to the winner

This game essentially comes down to the quarterbacks. You can say that for a lot of games of course, but it feels like every game comes down to how Sam Bradford did. More often than not, he has done the Eagles a disservice by starting. I thought Bradford was going to be a good fit for the Chip Kelly offense. I think Kelly was thinking the same when he brought him over. Bradford was competent enough to handle the no-huddle fast faced offense over at Oklahoma, but he has had difficulties in Philadelphia. Maybe he just isn’t a good quarterback? Bradford has passed for 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. I think that is just what he is, an average quarterback. Some days he will come to play, but you cannot count on that happening routinely.

DeMarco Murray has been floating in the water without a rudder in Philadelphia. He doesn’t look like he wants to be there, he isn’t playing hard, and consequently is seeing more of the bench than he is the field. Like Bradford, the offense has just been mediocre as a unit. They are 15th in the NFL in yards per game and are averaging only 22.7 points per game. However, the Redskins are behind them in 21st. I noted earlier how the Eagles are lucky they are catching the Skins at home, and it is for good reason. Washington is 1-5 on the road this season, their only win coming against the Chicago Bears. The Redskins took the first meeting 23-20 in Washington. I foresee a split happening. Eagles take this one by 6 or so.

 

Glad I tapped the ml during that one

pregame bet -3=push

reconsportspicks on the tweet

Everything points to the Jets rolling in Saturday night’s pivotal contest, despite the unusually close point-spread. New York enters as the much better team, in better form, and undoubtedly has the match-ups to exploit many of Dallas’ weaknesses.

For starters, look for the Jets to be able to control the flow and tempo of this game with a dominant and pounding running attack. Led by Chris Ivory, expect the Jets to run at will on Saturday night, as the Cowboys have shown an inability to slow down the ground and pound. Last week the Packers ran all over Dallas and losing Rolando McClain from their defense certainly didn’t help matters. Controlling the run game should set Ryan Fitzpatrick up for favourable passing down situations. He’s been pretty good this season and has done well to manage games for the Jets when necessary. Expect yet another clinical outing from the Harvard grad against this overachieving Cowboys defense. Dallas also has big holes in their secondary and expect huge games from both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall who should both be able to easily exploit their mismatches.

When Dallas has the ball, moving the chains will not come easy. Darren McFadden will likely struggle to run on the 5th-ranked run defense that New York brings, and it’s going to come down to Matt Cassel if the Cowboys are going to keep pace in this one. That’s not a good thing – at all. Dez Bryant is currently banged up and Darelle Revis will likely blanket him for the majority of this contest.

It’s unfortunate the Cowboys are so depleted because this is a good team at full strength, just not now. The Jets hold many of the key advantages for tonight’s contest and with all that is riding on this one, they should be able to exploit Dallas in these areas. The Jets are rolling right now, playing great football, and enter tonight with a sky-high confidence. New York plays too good defensively and too smart offensively to let this be close. Expect the Jets to roll by a couple of scores, en route to a playoff berth.

The Bills’ offense has enjoyed a breath of fresh air with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Much to my surprise, Taylor has blossomed into a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL. I was never impressed with what he did at Virginia Tech and in Baltimore he looked nothing more than a backup option. In Buffalo of all places, Taylor has shined. I give him credit for the work he’s put in because Tyrod has improved drastically. He has thrown for 17 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. With his legs he has galloped for 318 yards and an additional 3 touchdowns. The offense has surprisingly been the strong point of the Bills. Buffalo is 4th in rushing in the NFL, helped by Taylor and LeSean McCoy. The Bills are averaging 24.7 points per game this season.

Sammy Watkins healthy and back in the lineup provides a big boost to the Buffalo offense. Last week was the first win for the Eagles in four trys, coming against of all teams the Patriots. The Bills, conversely, snapped a two game losing streak. I just see this as a huge letdown spot for the Eagles. After beating the Pats I could see them getting complacent. I have said it many times before, I do not like backing Sam Braford. I don’t feel confident with money riding on him. I could have said the same about Tyrod Taylor before, but I am really starting to buy into this guy. Don’t get trapped into thinking the Eagles are suddenly good after last week. I like the Bills, which should be a good close game.

Habs

 

 

Rangers ml

Habs ml

Gl GENTS

ReconSportsPicks on the tweet tweet

So much for former Coach Budenheizer having a tactical advantage facing a familiar foe and mentor in the Spurs and Coach Pop. The Hawks haven’t beaten them yet in Coach Bud’s three years in ATL and have a ten-game overall losing streak against San Antonio. Tonight’s game is at home, but clearly even home court hasn’t been enough to tip the scales in the Hawks favor.

San Antonio enters with the second best record in the NBA at 19-5, a mark we’d be ga-ga over were it not for the madness in The Bay. That projects out to 65 wins and a ridiculously amazing season. They have reloaded on the fly and have gotten vintage Tony Parker performances, albet with lesser responsibility in season’s past. They are 8-2 in their last ten with their only two losses to Chicago and Toronto on the road by a single possession. Kawhi Leonard has emerged as a legit First Team All NBA player at 20/8/5 and elite defense. LaMArcus Aleridge has settled nicely into a 16/9 solid performer – lower stats than he is used to, but a lot more winning, and he has been very efficient in the process. And Parker/Ginobili/Duncan, while no longer “stars” are as good as “supporting cast” as you will find in the league. I can’t wait for them and the Warriors to play in May (hoping, praying, please).

In the meantime, Atlanta has slid back a bit this season from last year’s surprising run at the top seed in the East. The Conference overall is a little better, and the Hawks are just not QUITE as good, for whatever reason. Maybe it is the loss of Carroll, maybe it is the league catching up to their tyle (let’s face it, they’ve always had B+ personnel, just out-executed other teams). They are 6-4 in their last ten. And aside from a home win over OKC, they’ve lost to most of the truly good teams they’ve faced. San Antonio simply OWNS them at this point, and I think they continue their dominance tonight.

The Spurs are rested, having sat Parker last night against the Lakers and rested most of their top players. The sacrificed the Lakers’ game for tonight’s (and of course still won). I don’t usually like road teams on a back to back, but will make an exception given their persistent dominance in this rivalry.

GL Gents

ReconSportsPicks on the tweet tweet

GTFOH you tout FFFFFFFF OFFFFFFF

Do I sound like I need help LMAO

GL gents

There are a ton of games to choose from today; I like Xavier laying points at home despite the rivalry, I like Marquette and Ohio State hanging around with Wisconsin and UConn respectively. But I LOVE the Tarheels today against overmatched and soon to be overwhelmed Texas.

Did you see what North Carolina did to Davidson last week? The flood of athleticism and smothering defensive pressure? And before you say “well, wait, that was Davidson and this is mighty Texas” take a look at both teams. One has a good shot to play in March, and the other does not – and it isn’t just a function of conference. Since Marcus Paige has returned, UNC has LOOKED like the #1 team in the country they were projected to be. They are so long and play SO FAST that very few teams can keep up for 40 minutes. Add in Paige making clutch shots and orchestrating the offense with perfection, and they are simply dynamite.

Texas is struggling, and I find it hard to believe they get right against the mighty Heels. They already own losses to Texas A&M bu double-digits and to Michigan, who has lost to everyone this season and usually by a lot of points. They struggled with Texas Arlington and couldn’t bury Samford.

Carolina shoots 6% better from the floor and 9% better from the line (where Texas is terrible). I expect Carolina to force a ton of fouls with their tempo and a ton of turnovers as well. I honestly don’t think Texas can make this a basketball game, even at home.

I love Carolina, and would have been willing to lay more points to back to best team in the country today.

and ofcoarse they win

Brooklyn have won three of their last five games and more importantly, five of their last six games at home. That’s quality stuff. They have already gone into Philadelphia and won. It is hard to see them not consolidating the break tonight in the Barclays Center. As a matter of fact, the lousy start record-wise might have just made these Nets a steal in Vegas. They’ve been more competitive than people realize, even in losses. They are 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games after starting just 1-6 ATS.

Philly hasn’t been as rancid against the spread as one might expect given their terrible point differential. They are 10-11 ATS, but still own a -12.3 point differential. The Nets, who are also near the bottom are twice as good, at -6.7. My point, I think the Nets are a little undervalued tonight, The Sixers are always double digit dogs on the road, a big reason why they have a reasonable ATS record. Tonight, they are expected to be competitive. I think that’s a big ask.

Shed your early season perception of the Nets and instead see a team that is 5-1 SU in their last six home games including wins over Boston, Detroit, Phoenix and Houston and the only loss is to…Golden State. Brooklyn wins this game tonight easily.

Dj --I like the over as well

Ez-thks

There aren’t many games on the schedule tonight, but at least there is one elite game. This is a can’t miss, even if you aren’t a Midwesterner or an Iowan, whom this game obviously has special meaning for. Iowa had a 31-game home non-conference winning streak last year before Iowa State and Georges Niang came in and hammered them 90-75. The game was punctuated with Niang blowing a kiss to the Hawkeye fans in a gesture that has added even more fuel to an intense rivalry. The game will be in Ames, so Niang won’t have to suffer the rude treatment headed his way, but he will need to back up last year’s arrogance against a fired-up and better-than-advertised Hawkeye squad.

Iowa enters at at 7-2 with a Top 40 RPI. They have losses to Dayton and Notre Dame and wins over Florida State, Wichita State and an impressive blowout over an improving Marquette squad. However, Wichita State was without Van Vleet in that contest, so I’m not sure how much you can take from that win. Take that win away, and you are looking at a pretty average squad who failed two of their four big tests. And NONE of those tests are even close to what they are in store for this evening.

Meanwhile, across the state in Ames, things are clicking perfectly under first year coach Steve Prohm. He inherited a talented veteran roster, but there was some uncertainty after this team’s architect, Fred Hoiberg left to coach the Bulls. Niang is an All American candidate but he has plenty of help. Monte Morris and Abdul Nadir have been fantastic, and two other players, Jameel McKay and Nazareth Mitrou-Long are averaging over 12.9 ppg per game. This team has balance, size, depth and tons of talent and experience. There are going to get a spirited effort and rivalry games are always tough, but they won by 15 on the road last year and this year’s team is BETTER AND playing at home. That’s a nice combo.

Iowa State has won every game by more than 20 points except for an 11-point win at Illinois. They are 5-1 ATS, and I expect they’ll make it six tonight with a double-digit win – yet another gut-punch to their instate rival. I don’t know if this one will end with a sarcastic kiss to the crowd, but Georges Niang will likely be receiving plenty of love from the crowd tonight.
Iowa St -7

No Overtime????

Good win