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Griffin Warner S. Nover AJ Hoffman John Rothschild Ben Burns |
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Football Jesus LV Jeff Hochman Ben Burns Steve Fezzik |
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The moneyline for this contest implies a 75.8% chance of a victory for the Timberwolves. Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 1-18 SU in their last 19 games against an opponent in the Western Conference. Dunkel's Pick: Minnesota (-7) |
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Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Browns have a 37.9% chance to win. The Steelers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. The Browns are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played on a Thursday. Dunkel's Pick: Cleveland (+4). |
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Dave Essler Pickswise Sports Bob Balfe |
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Dave Essler Football Jesus LV Ben Burns |
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Steven Nover Spreitzer Tony George Robert Ferringo Steve Merril Jesse Schule BEN BURNS August Young |
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Carmine Bianco Drew Martin Football Jesus LV AJ Hoffman |
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The Broncos have a 71.3% chance to collect the win in this game based on the moneyline's implied probability. Western Michigan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Central Michigan. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Dunkel's Pick: Central Michigan (+6.5). |
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Tonight's game will be a contrast in tempo with the Warriors ranking fifth in pace while the Clippers rank 23rd. The Clippers' style won out in the first meeting in a 112-104 victory that went under a line of 221.5 points. While Curry did not finish that game, tonight's matchup features two top 10 defenses with the Clippers being on a second end of a back-to-back. The Clippers are playing their fourth back-to-back this season and on the second end of their back-to-backs so far, the under has hit in two of three games with an average of 222.6 points. One of those games was against the Warriors, which finished with 216 points. The Clippers are 9-5 to the under overall this season and tonight, we get the total at 225.5 points. For the under to hit, we will need misses and rebounds and for that I am looking at Curry and Zubac. Curry will have opportunities for long rebounds off 3-point misses while Zubac will be able to capitialize on his size advantage against the Warriors as well as being in a more featured role this season. |
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Spread The Rockets travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks with the impending likely return of Damian Lillard after missing a few games in the NBA concussion protocol. Giannis has been added to the injury report as well but is listed as probable. The spread has been moving between -2.5 and -4 on the Bucks' side, as the injury news shakes out. Shoot around will happen around 1 p.m. ET, which is when these question marks should become clear. I'm waiting on Giannis and Dame to be cleared, likely seeing this line return to -4, and then taking the Rockets ATS and ML at plus-odds. Right now the Rockets moneyline is +135, and while this is the side I want, the injury news makes it worth waiting on. The Rockets are on the second leg of a road back to back after playing the Bulls and winning handily last night in Chicago. They had a lax fourth quarter and a short road trip, so being wary of the exhaustion factor is minimal. This Rockets team fights hard and is incredibly well coached, two things we struggle to say for the Milwaukee side. The over/under opened right around 220, and has steadily increased to 224 since then. This shows me Dame is likely going to be active and the betting market is starting to price that in. He is a sniper from deep, and a traffic cone on the defensive end. Lillard is one of the NBA's biggest boosts to overs as an individual player. HOU +3.5 |
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By Billy Ward At the time of writing, FanDuel has the game total both half a point higher than the rest of the market and with lower juice on the under side of the equation. That makes it a solid starting point. In two games since losing Dak Prescott, Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game — with most of the scoring coming against a bad Falcons defense. The Cowboys have had little to no run game to speak of all season, and without Prescott their passing game is just as bad. It's hard to see them getting much going against the Texans' second-ranked defense by DVOA. In turn, that means Houston won't have to attack down the stretch, either. Houston has a negative Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) to begin with, so it'll likely skew to the run heavily if/when it gets a lead. That slows down the game, and thus limits scoring. The Texans haven't topped 23 points since they had all three of their top wide receivers active, which makes it hard for this game to go over the total without the Cowboys offense contributing. |
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The Texans have struggled to run the ball on early downs this season. If the Cowboys can continue to stifle the Houston rushing attack, it is nearly a certainty they will create pressure on C.J. Stroud, who has been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks in four consecutive games. For all of the faults of the Dallas defense, its ability to get to the passer — ranked fifth in pressure rate — has been steady despite rarely being at full health. 71% of the tickets at the time of writing are bets placed on the Texans, yet the line continues to shift toward Dallas, moving from 7.5 to 7. It is difficult to feel confident backing a team playing poorly, but trends also show there is value on the underdog. Over the last 20 years, teams coming off a loss of at least 28 points and are underdogs of seven or more points have been profitable. They are 72-55 (56.7%) against the spread (ATS) over the last two decades. Over the last five years, teams in this spot are 14-7 (66.6%) ATS. The Cowboys offense leaves a lot to be desired, but it is worth noting Cooper Rush is 4-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. I am expecting a better performance from the entire offense against a Texans defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games. Dall +7.5 |
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Profit on Sports Mike Barner Alex Selesnick |
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NBA Smart Money Sports Goodfella |
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Ross Benjamin The Prez Bob Balfe IC August Young Vernon Croy Donnie RightSide LT Profits |
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Football Jesus LV Esparza Matt Severance Ben Burns Ronald Cabang STEVE Fezzik AJ Hoffman |
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TOR + INDY 0-7 2ND OF BB OV MIA 5-1 L 6 SUNS ML ORO 0-6 SU AS FAV VS PACIFIC N,Y. WASH 50F L 6 UNDER |
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Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Pacers' implied win probability is 64.8%. In games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -184 or shorter last year, Indiana had a record of 17-11 (60.7%). The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Monday. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Central Division. Dunkel's Pick: Indiana (-4.5). |
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MIN 171 |
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