Rollz

Patrick Reed (110-1)

Top 20 (ties included):

Patrick Reed (+210)

Continued….

If you read my posts you probably know by now that I generally don’t value putting very much given how much variance is involved in it. This will also be the case for me this week with how difficult Augusta is, not requiring playing to make a bunch of birdie putts to have success. I’ll take a look at guys who putt well on fast greens, but otherwise I’ll be heavily weighing tee to green stats.

The ideal player here is long off the tee, in form on approach and good long iron players, and maybe most importantly an elite scrambler. This is also a course where course history is very predictive and institutional knowledge of Augusta is a big edge given the many nuances here. This will lead me to put a fairly big weight on course history. Other things that I’m factoring in include history in majors, par 5 scoring, 3 putt avoidance, and history in difficult scoring conditions. Still on the fence on some guys will sprinkle in my picks throughout the week. 

Crazy that it’s already masters week, I’m fired up  I’m sure most of us are very familiar with Augusta and how it plays but I’ll still run through a course breakdown. I will preface this by saying you really need every part of your game firing at this golf course. It’s a very demanding test off the tee and on approach, but equally demanding around the greens where we consistently see winners here with soft hands around these lightning fast undulating green surfaces. A balanced game works very well here and that’s why you see the best players in the world roaming the top of the leaderboard year after year. A couple masters trends that I found interesting… 11 of the past 13 master winners had a win in their past 6 starts and 12 of the last 13 winners had a top 15 finish in the prior year majors. These trends highlight the importance of current form and recent success in majors heading into Augusta.

Just to run through some details, Augusta is a par 72 measuring out at a hefty 7,555 yds (7th longest course on tour). It is consistently one of the toughest tests we see due to the pure length, elevation changes, difficult short grass areas around the green, and speedy undulating green surfaces that require precision on approach for birdie looks.

Off the tee at Augusta skews heavily toward longer hitters. This is due to the pure length of this golf course, but also the fact that these are the widest fairways that we see on the pga tour. Along the wide fairways is non-penile, short rough which all lends itself to a bombs away approach off the tee that gives a clear edge to the big hitters. 14 of the last 15 masters winners ranked in the top 50 for driving distance. I definitely prefer these longer players who will have shorter approaches into these tricky green complexes, and will be able to reach the crucial par 5s in 2.

This is a demanding test on approach that requires precision to hit the correct quadrants of these undulating greens to find birdie looks. The approach buckets are pretty consistent here, with about 75% of shots coming from 150+ yds. Players will be hitting a lot of long irons into these firm greens which are very difficult to hold, which is another reason distance off the tee is key allowing for shorter clubs with higher trajectories into these greens making it easier to hold approaches. Every winner of the masters in the last 9 years has ranked 6th or better on approach for the tournament. I’ll be dialing in on in form approach players with solid long term long iron play.

Maybe the biggest key for me on this golf course is around the green play. This is yet another golf course with a low greens in regulation %, increasing value on good around the green players. We consistently see top notch around the green players have a ton of success here in Patrick Reed, Scottie sheffler, Cam Smith, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, the list goes on.. Augusta presents some very difficult chip shots on tight lies around the green into extremely fast undulating surfaces that will test a wide variety of different types of shots. Guys will have to get up and down for par often here, not to mention the degree of difficulty of these shots is much higher than your average pga tour stop. This is why so many great around the green players rise up the leaderboard every year at this event. To me quality around the green play is essential this week and will serve as a pre-requisite as I dive into my outright selections.

Big card this this week, couple last minute adds. GL 

Outrights:

Jordan Spieth (24-1)

Daniel Berger (35-1)

JT Poston (55-1)

Bud Cauley (50-1)

Lee Hodges (75-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Patrick Cantlay (+187)

Jordan Spieth (+240) 

Top 20 (ties included):

Daniel Berger (+140)

Si Woo Kim (+162)

Keith Mitchell (+180)

JT Poston (+200)

Andrew Novak (+240)

Brian Harman (+275)

I like where Berger is heading. He’s so balanced overall which creates a great floor for a top 20 bet. If we can just get a spike on the greens or on approach we know he has the balls to close a tournament. His accuracy off the tee, steady approach play and supreme around the green game should play well here 

Daniel Berger (35-1)

Daniel Berger top 20 (+140)

Here’s everything in so far, have room for one more outright and will be adding positionals. Will wrap up the card tonight 

Outrights:

Jordan Spieth (24-1)

JT Poston (55-1)

Bud Cauley (50-1)

Lee Hodges (75-1)

Top 20 (ties included):

Si Woo Kim (+162)

Keith Mitchell (+180)

JT Poston (+200)

Andrew Novak (+240

Gl this week my friend 

JT Poston (55-1)

Top 20 (ties included):

JT Poston (+200)

I went ahead and locked 1 in as I don’t think this number will last. Russell Henley has quietly been a great major performer these past 2 years, with 3 top 10s including a 4th at the masters in ‘23. I just don’t think he should be 70-1 here. Truly believe he is among the 10 best players on tour right now and has the all around game to win here. 

Russell Henley (70-1)

Got to admit, this number feels gross. Haven’t gone down the speith ride for awhile but this feels right. In his home state where he plays his best golf, has a win and multiple top 10s here, plays well on comparative courses (4th at Scottsdale this year which has similarities), and was absolutely dialed with his irons last time out. I’ll bite on the low number as I feel it’s warranted in this spot 

Jordan Spieth (24-1) 

Top 20 (ties included):

Si Woo Kim (+162)

Keith Mitchell (+180)

This week brings us to San Antonio for the Valero Texas open. This event is held at tpc San Antonio. This venue usually ranks out among the top 15 toughest courses on the pga tour, and depending on the Texas winds we see it is usually won anywhere from -13 to -20 under par. Tpc San Antonio is a par 72 measuring out at 7,438 yards, one of the longer courses on tour.

Off the tee here is kinda similar to last week in terms of the rough being very short and easy to play out of. These fairways are extremely narrow though and even the most accurate guys will miss them.  There is also a lot more tree trouble out here that has me leaning more towards guys that are accurate off the tee, which has been a model for success here year after year. There’s a reason we’ve seen guys like Corey Conners, Denny McCarthy, and Akshay Bhatia have a ton of success here in the last couple years. Keeping it in play is huge to avoid the big numbers that are lurking out here at one of the highest rates on the pga tour given the tree lined fairways and brush areas that players find every year, I will have a heavier weight on accuracy off the tee. Being in the rough Is perfectly fine but avoiding the big miss is key on this golf course.

This is absolutely a golf course that is won with high end approach, one of the toughest approach courses on tour. This is a product of the Texas winds and firm undulating greens that require precision for birdie looks, much similar to what we saw last week on approach. We’ll see a heavy amount of approaches from 150-200 yds, with a big uptick from what we’re used to from 250+ yards. This is due to some really long, difficult par 5s that you have to take advantage of to create separation here. I’ll be looking for in form approach play above all else, but also guys that have had success from 250+ yds. Not something I look at much, but it’s warranted here IMO as you can gain a big edge by hitting greens in 2 on these tough par 5s.

This will be a relatively similar setup on and around the greens as we saw in Houston last week in terms of the undulating surfaces and high rate of missed greens resulting in guys needing to scramble around here often. I don’t think you need to be a great putter to have success here, but I definitely prefer guys that are competent around the greens due to the sheer volume of pitches you have to hit around here. 

I’m also taking a look at par 5 scoring, 3 putt avoidance, and course history at a place that course history has been very predictive. Already played Cauley and adding Lee Hodges. I still haven’t made a decision at the top of the board but will be back

Bud Cauley (50-1)

Lee Hodges (75-1)

Can’t wait brotha! Straka is intriguing, I’ve been taking a hard look at Henley myself. Dialed in on Valero at the moment don’t have alot of leans yet 

Coming off our 3rd outright of the year  let’s see if we can find some more success. I don’t have time for a write up tonight will have one at some point this week.

I played cauley on open and have a lot of interest in McCarthy and spieth but want to see if I can find better numbers when more books open tomorrow. 

Bud Cauley (50-1)

Let’s go my friend, it got a little stressful there huh? These outrights are never easy, glad you hit some winners 

Thanks brotha! 

LFG fellas Congrats to anyone who backed min woo this week, it was truly a perfect course fit. Actually hit jaeger here last year too, it’s a pretty predictable course IMO where bombers and short game studs have a huge edge. 3/6 on positionals and 40-1 on min woo outright for a profitable week. On to Valero 

Time to sweat some golf friends, min woo looking dialed out of the gate. Surely nothing will go wrong  Positionals looking promising with 4/6 in play 

Hell yeah, gl to us  I think min woo is capable of imploding and letting any of these guys at -11 or better back into the mix. Luckily there’s not a lot of trouble on this golf course so I think that is less likely here. I like our chances man, unfortunately scheffler is lurking 5 back and would not shock me at all if he makes it really interesting at some point, but I likely won’t be doing any hedging unless it’s later in the round when I have more certainty. I wouldn’t blame you for a small scheffler hedge at that number right now though