schmeto

 ITALY also to win Outrights odds @7 / +600)

For the final ITALY 2.69 xG vs 0.79 xG  England, Italy deserve to win the final Forza ITalia

https://www.infogol.net/en/matches/results/yesterday

Note: I think that without penalties shoot against italy, spain is the best on xG but it is knock out tornament so

@Enzyme13

 I think it is like "expected goals" in soccer but still keep in secret by bookmakers for nba (basketball)

These stats are not displaying for the public until now

I don't know why it is releases for soccer it strange because it help bettors against bookies..

Here is the xG to see the potential Defensive of teams

1) Italy : -3.17 xG below the average level of Defense

2) England: -1.83 xG below the average level of Defense

3) Netherlands : -1.7 xG below the average level of Defense

4) Germany : -1.47 xG below the average level of Defense

5) Austria : -1.1 xG  below the average level of Defense

6) Spain: -1.07 xG below the average level of Defense

7) Belgium: -1 xG  below the average level of Defense

8) Switzerland : -0.7 xG below the average level of Defense

9) France: -0.6 xG  below the average level of Defense

10) Denmark : -0.47 xG below the average level of Defense

11) Ukraine : -0.43 xG below the average level of Defense

12) Sweden: +0.37 xG above the average level of Defense

13) Portugal: +0.5 xG above the average level of Defense

14) Rep Czech:  +0.63 xG above the average level of Defense

15) Croatia: +0.7 xG above the average level of Defense

16) Wales : +1.33 xG above the average level of Defense

Italy seems to have the best potential defense and Wales are the worst on this sector

Regarding OFFENSE+DEFENSE xG may be I should consider ITALY also to win Outrights odds @7 / +600)

Netherlands and Spain seems teams to have the most potential balanced off+def

Wait and see...

Here is the update of xG after the last  group games played

1) Spain: +3.67 xG above the average level ( odds @ 8.71 / +771)

2) Netherlands : +2.43 xG above the average level ( odds @9.92 / +892)

3) Denmark : +2.33 xG above the average level ( odds@ 19.34 / +1834)

4) Portugal : +1.97 xG above the average level ( odds @ 11.67 / +1067)

Others team's trends (For info):

Italy: +0.43 xG

Wales : +0.33xG

Switzerland : -0.17 xG

Belgium +0.2 xG

Austria: -0.83 xG

Ukraine: -0.97xG

England: -0.13 xG

Croatia: -0.8 xG

Czech Republic: -0.2xG

Sweden: -0.13xG

France: -0.27 xG

Germany : +0.33xG

I don't know if it makes sens but I will try to make to see xG bests potential defenses now

Now with the xG..  Who is surprised of the score of Spain against Slov? 

For European Big , this website is very good for xG, there is historical last years xG results

https://understat.com/

It is the problem with stats numbers usually , we can read it on differents way...

where do you find the 2.4 xG above the average for spain? because it is the same result of my calculs so if the work is already done in other website I would like to have it if possible.

I have seen videos on youtubes that xG are balanced on long term so we can expect + for the retarding xG I guess even it is not exact science( look scotland I had for them +1.03 xG above the average AND they finished last...  but here it is not long term view on 1-2-3games...

What we could say also about teams who are qualified for next round and have a negative xG( below the average level) ...

That could mean these teams are talented more than the average and/or they had "more luck" for the moment

Where is the Truth...? that is good question may be without reply :)

For me xGD( differential xG) is a "joke", it is more complex that that on my mind to forecast next.

I heard already few time before about xG but I just start to interest much more with the euro2020

You can use infogol.net for the euro https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/european-championship-finals-group-stage-2021/231

or FootballxG.com for world games data and forecast

I have checked group stage for euro2020 about expected goals and analyse deeply this

I am beginning with that so it is a test but I already find one idea to find some potential of teams.

We will see how it is work...

It stays tonight games for the last qualification places so I will update these datas after games of groupeE+F will be finished..

Here is  teams that I believe they have the potential to make upset and win outrights the Euro2020.

1) Netherlands : +2.43 xG above the average level  ( odds @12.58 / +1158)

2) Spain: +2.4 xG above the average level  ( odds @ 10.54 / +954)

3) Denmark : +2.33 xG above the average level ( odds@ 22.33 / +2133)

4) Portugal : +1.43 xG above the average level ( odds @ 11.25 / +1025)

Others team's trends (For info):

Italy: +0.43 xG

Wales : +0.33xG

Switzerland : -0.17 xG

Belgium +0.2 xG

Finland: -1.73 xG

Austria: -0.83 xG

Ukraine: -0.97xG

England: -0.13 xG

Croatia: -0.8 xG

Czech Republic: -0.2xG

Sweden: -0.13xG

Slovakia:-2.07xG

Poland: -0.3xG

France: -0.43 xG

Germany : +0.33xG

Hungary: -1.23 xG

Note: Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine are the worst on this ( and bookies agree with that on their standing outrights winner)

BL

FRZA !

Thanks for the Write up

BL

Nice write up!

BL

Results

DENVER ML ( s1+s2+s3)  +1.69U

PHOENIX ML (s1+s2+s3)  +1.28U

Profit of the day: + 2.97U

Total record of the System1(S1) since beginning of play-in(47bets) : +9.5U ( Roi :+20.23%)

(If I had followed bookies trends I will be in lost by -13.08U)

For info:

System2(S2) has a total playinoff record: +8.08U

System3(S3) has a total playinoff record: +4.3U

For Today:

CLIP@DAL :  system1 has no value(for the moment), S2 gives value on DALLAS ML, S3 gives value on CLIP ML

I don't like so much contrary trends between systems

In add, I am more waiting that Home teams winning in nearby future 

I will wait to see if a value will come for S1.

It will be DALLAS ML or ( FOLD)

BL

Results 

PHILA ML ( System1+S2+S3)  +0.41U

NY ML ( S1+S3) -1U

MEMPHIS ML ( S1+S2+S3) -1U

DALLAS ML ( S1+S2+S3) +2.7U

Profit of the day: +1.1U

Total record of the System1(S1) since beginning of play-in(45bets) : +6.53U ( Roi :+14.5%)

(If I had followed bookies trends I will be in lost by -11.08U)

For info:

System2(S2) has a total playinoff record: +5.08U

System3(S3) has a total playinoff record: +1.33U 

For Today

DENVER ML ( s1+s2+s3)

PHOENIX ML (s1+s2+s3)  

BL

Results

Brooklyn ML  +0.1U

Denver ML +0.79U

Phoenix ML  +0.54U

Profit of the day: +1.43U

Total record of the System1(S1) since beginning of play-in(41bets) : +5.42U ( Roi :+13.22%)

(If I had followed bookies trends I will be in lost by -10.23U)

For info:

System2(S2) has a total record: +2.76U

System3(S3) has a total record: +0.22U

Bets for Today:

PHILA ML ( System1+S2+S3)

NY ML ( S1+S3)

MEMPHIS ML ( S1+S2+S3)

DALLAS ML ( S1+S2+S3)

BL

I am on Denver ML too

BL

Results

Washington ML +3U

Memphis ML  -1U

Profit of the day : +2U

Total record of the system since beginning of play-in(38bets) : +4U ( Roi :+10.5%)

(If I had followed bookies trends I will be in lost by -7.23U)

For Today:

My system1 gives me Brooklyn ml, Denver ml and phoenix ml but for Brooklyn and Phoenix the value is very low(not interesting). In add system2&3 are not agree with the system1 so I will fold them.(I will count it on the system record anyway)

So, It stays Denver ML that respect the 3system's trends...

BL

Results:

Atlanta ML ( game4)  +0.5U

Phoenix ML ( game4)  +2.32U

Boston ML (game4)  -1U

Dallas ML (game4) - 1U

Profit day: +0.82U

Total record of the system since beginning of play-in(36bets) : +2U ( Roi :+5.5%)

(If I had followed bookies trends I will be in lost by -6.67U)

For today:

Washington ML

Memphis ML

BL

@Anonyme

 I think there are many things together

LEbron and Lakers had little rest between last season and this new season + Lebron was injuried ( and AD too) during this regular season and I think it happened because Lebron and AD had not enough rest  so injuries come more quickly

+Lebron has 1 year more also

Regarding my system lakers could be out at round1 but not sure it will happen, it is just trends probabilities

I was wondering witch team could beat Brooklyn @ Brooklyn, the only one I thought was The lakers(with Lebron) but now....I don't think anymore 

Lebron looked "Tired"...

Lebron looks " Tired"...