TheBlackKnight

11.22.24, Friday

7:00pm, Boston over 126.5 (-125), 125/100

7:00pm, Boston & Washington, over 233.0 (-180), 270/150

Both teams shot poorly from the field and free throw line.  

Yesterday was a pitiful 0-4-0 and -745 

What the     from race two yesterday added, the four pack lost. 

Season is now 10-9-1 and +5 

Bad/Good Sheet for Saturday, 11.23.24 for Tampa Bay Downs

Race 1

Bad: 2,3

Good: 6

Race 2

Bad: 7,8

Good: 1,2,4,5,6

Race 3

Bad: 9

Good: 1,2,4,8,10,12,13

Race 4

Bad: 3,5

Good: 6

Race 5

Bad: 4,5,6,13,14

Good: 1,3,8,9,10,11,12

Race 6

Bad: 1,2,4,8

Good: 3,5,6,7

Race 7

Bad: 3,4,6,10

Good: 2,5,7,12

Race 8

Bad: 1,3,4,5,7

Good: 6,8,9

Race 9

Bad: 3,11

Good: 1,2,4,5,9

Last I heard, the turf races will still be on the lawn but there was concern.

Recapping yesterday.

4 races were won from bad combinations.

3 races were won from good combinations.

2 races were won from neutral combinations.

... Neutral combinations being neither bad nor good.

Favorites won twice.

None of them placed.

Two showed.

No trainer won back to back races.

No trainer had multiple wins.

Samy Camacho, jockey, won back to back races (7th & 8th).

Samy Camacho had four wins on the card.

Sara Hess, female jockey, won a race - female riders are 1 for 9 (win).

4 winners came from GP (last race).

1 first-timer won.

4 winners had previously raced at Tampa Bay Downs.

5 winners had not previously raced at Tampa Bay Downs.

Kevin Rice, trainer, won the last race on the card.

Israel Rodriguez, jockey won the last race on the card. 

Those are the basics of things to track to be successful, to me, if one wagers this track consistently/regularly.  While the meet is slow, I might be able to provide additional updates but as you can see, there is alot of work needed to be profitable/successful at/from this track.

Hope all were as profitable as I was yesterday, if not greater/more. 

11.20..24, Wednesday

9:00pm, Long Beach State @ Gonzaga

1H, over 71.5 (-135) 135/100

FG, over 150.0 (-135), 270/200

FG, Gonzaga over 92.5 (-120), 240/200

Parlay the three above, +180, 100/180

Using the above, for race 2, it provided all readers & punters the $58 winner, the $100.80 exacta and $628 trifecta.  

I get it, this is after the race, but it's all posted above.

The 1 had female jockey.  

The 4, 5, 6 and 7 not bred in FL or KY.

That left the 2, 3 and 8 as my choices/selections/wagers.

This race earned over $700 profit. 

Don't be foolish and increase your wagers just because you're up currently.

Starting to work on Saturday's past performances.  

Results race 1: 2-4-5-6-3

2 paid $6.00, $3.00 and $2.40

4 paid $2.80 and $2.40

5 paid $3.00

$1 exacta paid $9.80

$0.50 trifecta paid $14.45

Hope all were profitable from this race.  

For the following race, down grade any/all trainer, jockey and combination that won the previous race.

No system is 100% perfect but what I list and wager will give us a chance to be profitable.

 with the rest of the card.  

The one has been scratched.  As of right now, still like the listed selections.  The walking ring and post parade still remain for ticket building.

Details For Race 1 - OVERNIGHT Comments

#1: Jockey has shown to be reliable and give a quality effort based upon the horses ability. Zero for one, in the money at the distance and making debut at Tampa.

#2: This combination, separate and together, meet after meet is always near the top for wins (at this track).  The workout on the 15th was visually impressive.  Flipside is the horse has never raced at Tampa or the distance.

#3: A couple things popped out at me instantly about this one.  One, wasn't bred in FL or KY.  Two, female jockey scheduled for the race.  Was a beaten favorite last race.

#4: Never raced at Tampa, BUT always in the money, 3 of 3, at the distance.  The trainer comes into the meet with a fairly large stable (I think it's 40) which tells me, he's ready to make a run for the wins title.  While A.G. is a top jockey, he does, better in turf races at the Olds mar Oval.

#5: Bred in New Jersey.  1 of 3 in the money at the distance. Last workout wasn't visually impressive but history of the trainer shows/states he doesn't like to be explosive for workouts.

#6: Female pilot.  Placed in the lone race at the distance.

Program picks: 4-3-2-1

Heading into track changes here are my top two, in no particular order are, the two and the four.  Looking for a long shot, the five fits the bill.

The way I analyze/break down races from here, might not be how you do it and I'm okay with that.  We may end up on the  same choice(s) and that's fine or on others which is also fine.  We're looking for profit each day.

Downgrade any/all horses not bred in either Florida or Kentucky.  The exception is when there's a race on the lawn, then add European racers as keepers.

Downgrade any/all female jockeys as they win less than 5% of the meets races.

Downgrade any/all horses that won a cheap race in their previous start.  For this track cheap is defined as $50,000 or less.

Downgrade any/all jockeys, trainers and/or combinations that are winless with ten or more starts at the current meet.

Upgrade any/all horses that have been in the money at Tampa Bay Downs.  This shows they have the ability to handle the surfaces.

Upgrade any/all horses that have been in the money at the distance.  This shows they can handle the length of the race and be competitive.

Those are the basics/starting points I use for this track.  While it may not work for you, it helps me identify contenders from the pretenders.  Their will be times that I will not use the above only because of private conversations and/or knowledge I have with the connections.

Let's have a successful day with the  

Wednesday's Overnight Last 12 Months

R1

Bad: 3,4

Good: 6

R2

Bad: 1

Good: 5,6,7,8

R3

Bad: 3,5,7

Good: 8

R4

Bad: 4,5,8

Good: 1,3,7

R5

Bad: 1,3,5

Good: N/A

R6

Bad: 3,8

Good: 4,5,6

R7

Bad: 1,2,6,8,9

Good: 3,5,10

R8

Bad: 1,2,3,6,7,10,11

Good: 5

R9

Bad: 2,4,9,10

Good: 8,12

Bad is referencing a zero in the money percentage of the listed jockey and trainer.

Good is referencing a fifty plus in the money percentage of the listed jockey and trainer.

This is not the lone factor used to select the top candidates for each race.  To me, the combination should have some success together in the past year.  Those with zero percent together get down graded - it doesn't mean they can't/won't win, I just decrease their score.  Likewise, those who are good won't win every time - it doesn't mean they can't/won't, I just increase their score.

11.20.24, Wednesday

CD 2: #6

... Has placed or won 2 of the 3 races here

... Gaffalione is the scheduled pilot

CD 4: #8

... Ward is an excellent sprint trainer

CD 6: #5

... 3 of his 4 races here, he either won or placed

... Really like the breeding

..... 2nd generation: Into Mischief

..... 3rd generation: Harlan's Holiday, AP Indy, Easy Goer

..... 4th generation: Gulch, Seattle Slew, Mr Prospecter, Alydar, Spectacular Bid

..... 5th generation: LOADED highlighted by Secretariat

I know, from any term but it doesn't hurt to be prepared.  The only way I'd consider the we'd if the race comes off the lawn is if they were MTO.  Scratches change the body of the race, to me, a great deal.  Gallardo the last few meets at Tampa has a higher win rate on the lawn than the dirt.  That combo gets pounded a lot all meet.  Hopefully you'll find a race or more to your liking.   

The night finishes 1-0-0 and +200 

The season is now 13-3-0 and +685 

Next ticket(s) are scheduled for Friday, 11.22.24. 

Hope you're doing as well, if not better.

Quote Originally Posted by Ib123:

Thank you and hope you're having a successful season too.  

Quote Originally Posted by RayRayK:

@TheBlackKnight  I like the way you think

Thank you but I still have a lot to learn about wagering the different venues and hope you have a cash positive season.  

For this coming Saturday,

Noon, 1H, Indiana and Ohio State, over 26.5 (-120), 120/100

Noon, FG, Indiana over 19.5 (-125), 125/100

More later in the week.

11.19.24, Wednesday

7:00pm, Boston (-240) to defeat Cleveland, 480/200

This is for Wednesday's races.

You bring up great points for him.  

I also use accu weather to get long range forecasts and when it keeps showing rain, high winds etc greater than 60%, after I break down the races for fast/firm, I'll do those races again with the greater than 60% changes - mostly so I won't have to redo each race from the beginning.

They have free breeding/pedigree sites, giving 5 or 6 generations with CD and dosage.  Right now, Tapit blood is doing well in off track races.  Lemon Drop Kid, while a dirt horse, has decent success with his off spring on the lawn.

Tampa has a card for tomorrow, Wednesday.  Hope you'll have a few thoughts on the card.  Just as a heads up, no turf racing scheduled.

To me, your eyes and ears are the most important things in trying to assess the track conditions.  They allow you to see and hear the races.  After a while, one can make the distinctions between surfaces and pace.

Online resources for track conditions can easily be found on equibase and daily racing form.  Whatever track you're wagering upon had it's own website, as such there's a section for track changes.  Twin Spires and TVG, horse watering websites, provide the information shortly after being updated by/from the track.  To me, it's very important that you take notice of the time when the changes take place.

I have a document about track conditions stored on the desktops' hard drive.  I found it to be helpful, informative and useful.  I will look for it next time(s) I'm there (desktop) in hopes of locating it - worse case is I printed it and put in a few binders.

Watch each race live taking notes of what you see, review them during the race day, they are a useful source of information.  After each dirt race the track gets harrowed (grated) watch what and where the truck is riding.

Hope this will help you some.