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Quote Originally Posted by dubabay:
Remember that with such a risky system, only one sweep can put you 6-8 units behind, just a matter of one -250 or more favorite losing.
Yup. The pooch is screwed for the first third. Given back all those gains from 2018. 11 sweeps and were still in April. I'll be back after the ASG. At least that third has prove itself for the last two seasons. |
TheTangoFox | 10 |
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So with some whittling, here are the 10 teams we will play through the end of May: ATL CIN COL LAA MIN NYM OAK SD TB TOR This comes out to about 162 series and about 48 where the series features two target teams. Will post back after the end of May with results and a new set of teams to take us upup the ASG. Good luck out there... |
TheTangoFox | 10 |
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...did I really just do that? Took 10 teams during that period, but forgot that I added 2 more in late August. Enter fuzzy math and me forgetting what 5 x 3 x 2 equals. Anyways, 30 teams, the middle 10 through May, then anyone that fits the bill for the rest of the year. |
TheTangoFox | 10 |
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How many games should an average team (between .400 & .600 record) win in a 3 game series?
1.
That's the logic that resulted in a over 30 unit gain last year between the ASG and the end of the regular season.
In essence, I was looking for average-ish teams with a record between .4 50 & .650, so about 12 teams. Then, I ditched any 1 or 2 game series. In 4 game series, I ignored the first game.
Took the ML bet unless it was showing better than -200, then I went with the RL. 1u for the 1st game, 2u for the 2nd game, 4u for the 3rd game. If they won the 1st, didn't play the 2nd or 3rd. Win the 2nd, didn't play the 3rd. Lost the 3rd...down 7u. If the RL lost but the team won, the series was abandoned since the win occurred. When two average teams were playing, I'd usually went with the better paying ML for the 1st game; a winner there meant I could play the other team for the next one or two games. Max gain of 2u or max loss of 2u for the series (the max loss never occurred in this scenario - only missed out on doubling up since the other team got their win and I rode my 1st game loser to a win).
Here's the plan: in the week of opening day, see how the talking heads are ranking teams 1-32. Trash the top 10 and bottom 10, giving us at least 12 teams deemed average. Those will be the teams til the end of May when I readjust and see just who are the average teams based on the earlier parameters. The new list will take us to the ASG. Week of the ASG, make that final list of average teams and ride them till the end of the season.
I'll plan on posting the first 12 teams around the 26th. Welcome any thoughts or inputs in the mean time. |
TheTangoFox | 10 |
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Looks like Im offline for a few days just watchin and tinkering. Three days of suckitude will do that.
If you still want my daily picks, shoot me a message...but youre best avoiding me like the plague for now. YTD 54-48
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Death by home run. Again. That and whatever the scoring play was during the DET game. Got so downtrotten missed a west coast play.
Quick note...the contrarian play was a push, and that was the best result. The lines were even or better, so if we went with the system plays, we would of lost juice. From here on, if you see CP next to the pick, you will know what it means. CPs will only be if the line is even or better. Lets get this ship back on track. Negative Nancy for the second night in a row but same juice on both sides of the line tells us even the book cant cap it... WAS/PIT - No run TOR/ATL - No run CIN/CHC - No run PHI/TEX - No run NYY/KC - No run BOL YTD 53-44 |
TheTangoFox | 63 |
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There were only four games yesterday, so just sat back and let it pass. Got some good info from the Cleveland game...was a no hit lean with a bad line, but that got destroyed pretty nicely.
Some tricky lines tonight, but here is the main course BAL/DET - No run BOS/STL - No run PHI/TEX - No run Throwing in these plays as a fade to the system. All the big info leans towards run, but with such a bad line there is some value going against it, especially with one of my main pressure factors missing. NYY/KC - No run CIN/CHC - No run Will check back in if there are plays out west tonight. BOL YTD 52-40 |
TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Someone get me my scumbag hat. First thing I say...look for more runs today, then there I go making no score plays.
Down a little, but we press on. Play the doubleheader games as you please, but remember only the Missouri games have been no run situations...though the Cards game was 90 feet away. YTD 52-40
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Cant argue with perfection last night. Only two games were runs last night, so figure today would be an equilizer of sorts with more runs than not.
Big day today... PHI/WAS G1 - No run SD/CHW - Run BAL/KC - Run CHC/STL - Run OAK/TEX - No run LAD/COL - No run DET/LAA - Run CIN/SF - Run (why not?) BOL YTD 49-35 |
TheTangoFox | 63 |
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I cannot condone going all in on a prop bet. Sure, the weather and matchups may create a good bet, but the human element mixed with a little luck can swing it one way or another.
CHC/STL - No run CIN/SF - Run BOS was a no run play, but the juice was awful so I passed. Watching the Angels game for a later play. BOL YTD 47-35
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Live by the homer, die by the homer. Again.
My apologies for anyone who tailed the Angels game. Had no business playing that game and tried to get crafty. Hence why we juiced out if you tailed the Giants play. Also, procede with caution as all our outdoor games were runs last night. Usually view the next day as an equilizer. HOU/NYY - No run TB/BOS - No run BAL/KC - No run CHC/STL - No run Lean on a no run in Anaheim tonight, but will watch a little closer tonight. BOL YTD 44-34 |
TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Welllllll crap. Technically I was right...
Gonna roll on the two late games. SF has burned me before, but I trust the formula more than my feelings DET/LAA - No run CIN/SF - Run BOL
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Live by the homer, die by the homer.
BAL/WAS - No run Waited too long...wanted to take the NYY no run, TEX run, and COL run, but that is just too much juice. Watching the late games for a play... BOL YTD 43-33
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Thanks Grandy for that last strike save.
BAL/WAS is showing no run, but the line sucks, so play that how you please. However... SD/TEX - No run PIT/LAD - Run BOL YTD 42-32
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Day games all I see is SF/NYM for a run. Watching thr evening weather closely...
BOL YTD 41-32
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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run line so no play there.
BOL YTD 40-32
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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I figure juice of -115 since these are prop bets.
Taking my current bankroll, factor in the juice, and divide by 5, that is my flat wager starting with 50. 5 straight losses or payout before I reevaluate my base line bet. Last night only one outdoor game went scoreless in the 1st. Only play Ive got is LAA/OAK for a run. SF/LAD was a bad no
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Change of plans. CHC line spiked so no play or a reverse play. I pass regardless.
Any line over 130 I am skeptical. YTD 40-32
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Good bounce back last night. Looking at a good number of plays today.
MIL/PIT - Run HOU/LAA - Run DET/OAK - Run SF/CIN - Run COL game has a horrible line for a run, MIN has a bad one for no run, so I will pass on those. Still trying to decide on NYY/CHC but its looking like a no run situation, line permitting. If half these plays are winners, I will take it. BOL YTD 38-30
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TheTangoFox | 63 |
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Yeah last night sucked. Should of won at least the BAL game.
Interestingly enough, I mentioned the omega system (low barometric pressure). The runs came from parks near the system, away from it (CA & MO) were no runs.
Only play I can make is MIA/NYM for a run. All the other games are favorable weather with low ERAs and vice versa. Wanted to play WAS/PHI as a run but the line was bad. BOL YTD 37-30 |
TheTangoFox | 63 |
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