thewhitesmith

Unfortunate outcome, but a great run nonetheless!

Pick is in Duke -4 vs UNC in the ACC Tourney...

tied at the half, good luck

Va Tech/Miami over 137.5 today.

Both of their previous games have gone well over that number. they combine to make on average about 18 3's a game (I'm looking for ~15/game minimum on average combined), Va Tech is pretty heavily favored, and most money is on Va Tech covering the ~-8, so it's a little beyond the range i would normally like, but if the game ends near that number i can see Miami forcing the issue and/or fouling earlier. Va Tech is pretty good from the line as well in those circumstances.

with mostly NCAA and a few NHL thrown in there, user patric is one win away from some cash.

Good luck

Struggling to keep up with my updates and research... much easier without responsibility. this is the time of year where teams will start to get desperate and do things a little crazy.

mentioned before i like looking for overs, but the basic scenario i'd ideally find is a game that i'm expecting to be a 4-8 point outcome. the main factors i look for are my perceived tempo (possessions per game), 3-point attempts and at least some level of respectability in knocking them down, and at least free-throw shooting on the team I expect to be in front.

additional factors are tempo numbers on the team i expect to be in front (I want them to keep pace up when they get a 6-point lead), individual guard play where someone can go off for big games (hot hand tends to shoot a little quicker), and peripheral numbers that i can use to logically explain why a line is lower than i would expect (i.e. they just played a run of teams that prefer low-scoring games and recent biases are skewed to fewer points).

if i get the time, i'll be posting the thoughts. if not, good luck all

After Tuppy hit, they moved it up to 25 for the $100K. People have won the $25K since, but I was not around when Tuppy hit and I can't remember if there was a $25K or not from previous discussion (also too lazy to try to look it up).

A great run regardless. Seemed to follow recent logic of smaller favorites, but OKC -4.5 at New Orleans went down and with that the streak.

Well done hurricanegroovy and hopefully you ge back up there soon.

With Indiana covering, hurricanegoovy is within 1 win of $1,000.  picks have been all NBA, so let's see if that run continues to some cash.

taking byu/zaga over tonight. no incredibly strong lean but it's last day of the month and i just kinda want to watch the alst game of the night and root for points

correct.

Nobody has hit the 25, but someone did win $100,000 before they made it 25 in a row (Tuppy). This game will hook you, I took several years off and am just getting back into it again... just a taste and it hooks ya.

Taking Marquette/Butler over today. nothing too indepth, just a solid history of overs, decent recent results and home/road splits.

Liking Louisville/Pitt over today. I went into the first few things I look for in my last post. I like initial range of numbers PF/PA when compared to the spread.

In this case, the deciding factor was for me looking at the recent games where Louisville was about a 10-point favorite and Pitt was about a 10-point dog, and that Louisville is averaging 84/game in league play, with the lowest being 79. I feel confident they'll be able to put up enough that I hopefully won't need too much out of Pitt, even if Louisville covers.

Goin VCU/URI over today. Biggest things indicators for me in a game in general is the # of possessions I'm expecting vs the total on the game (with a bunch of other factors). One thing I looked at here were the recent games that have gone under and why, in most cases it wasn't because of fewer possessions, it was because of poor FG%.

Another is that PF is combined to about 140, PA combines to about 129, and both teams PF+PA is over the line at 131.5 from when I locked the pick in. If both sides show an ability to score well above the line, and the PA is at or just below the line, that's kinda the first indicator for a game I want to look into more.

I took it at 131.5 and the line is up to 137 now though, which would completely change how I looked at it and I would probably skip at where it's at...

They will remove picks that too many people select the same side on. In some cases this is temporary, in others it opens again later on, in others still it will open once the line moves...

Tuppy won the big prize and has repeatedly said he got paid. They changed the streak to 25 after he won.

Since then, nobody has hit 25 (All-Stars page), so nobody has hit the big prize.

I can personally verify that they do pay out real money and in a timely fashion.

Took a few years off, just getting back into NCAA after focusing on EPL for a bit... great to see this is still going strong.

looking for spots for NCAA overs this time of year, ideally later in conference play in and in conference tourneys.

also, GL Caligula