two21

two21
Prospect
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Posts: 105
Member Since: January 2014
Status: Offline
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created a topic Atlanta @ Brooklyn
in NBA Betting
Atlanta +4.5 (5 units)

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two21 1
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created a topic San Antonio @ Dallas
in NBA Betting
Dallas -2 (2.5 units)

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created a topic Charlotte @ Washington
in NBA Betting
Charlotte +5.5 (7 units)

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two21 1
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created a topic Dallas @ Utah
in NBA Betting
Utah +7 (2.5 units)

Gl
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two21 3
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replied to Cleveland @ Atlanta
in NBA Betting
game over...whats your logic money4sale?

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two21 3
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created a topic Cleveland @ Atlanta
in NBA Betting
Atlanta -1.5 (5 units)

Gl
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two21 3
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created a topic Minnesota @ Miami
in NBA Betting
Minnesota +8 (2.5 units)

GL
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two21 1
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created a topic Orlando @ Charlotte
in NBA Betting
Orlando +9.5 (2.5 units)

GL
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created a topic Dallas @ LA Clipper
in NBA Betting
LAC -4 (4-units)

gl
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created a topic Cleveland @ Orlando
in NBA Betting
Orlando +2 (4-units)

GL
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two21 1
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replied to GS vs. Dallas
in NBA Betting
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two21 3
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created a topic GS vs. Dallas
in NBA Betting
GS +4 (4-units)

GL
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two21 3
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created a topic 2 games for tonight...
in NBA Betting
WAS @ LAK

20 @ -6
40 @ -5.5
60 @ -5
80 @ -4.5

Push @ 4; gain at 4.5
Laker is the play here at current line of 4 (5 units)

DEN @ DAL

75 @ -7.5
50 @ -8
25 @ -8.5

Push @ 8; gain at 7.5
Denver is the play here at current line of 8 (3.5 units)

GL 
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two21 1
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replied to Min @ Hou
in NBA Betting
Percentages over time for OKC, GS & WAS was pretty much a push, therefore, no play on those games

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two21 4
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replied to Min @ Hou
in NBA Betting
I'll try to explain my method here...

Factors include public money and public bets; base on those percentage, I'll determine to the best of my knowledge what vegas/book(s) is willing to payout based on all games played on that day, not just the game(s) that I wage on.

Example for the play above...

Public bets for today's game are following...
77% OKC
61% HOU
54% GS
54% WAS

There are percentages (point spread/public money over time) within each game that will help me determine which game I think Vegas/Books willing to fork out; in this case I've determined they are willing to payout for OKC and bank on Minnesota


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two21 4
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created a topic Min @ Hou
in NBA Betting
35% @ -8
65% @ -7.5

Push @ 7.5; gain @ 7

Minnesota is the play here at current line of 7.5

2.5 units

GL
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two21 4
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created a topic Mia @ Bos
in NBA Betting
20% @ -7.5
40% @ -7
60% @ -6.5
80% @ -6

Push @ 6; gain @ 6.5

Boston is the play here at current line of 6.5

2.5 units
GL
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two21 1
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replied to Ind @ NY
in NBA Betting
rogercw - I'm 3-0 so far with my new analysis...I could see an outright win here for your Knicks, but GL to you 
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two21 3
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created a topic Ind @ NY
in NBA Betting
20% @ -3
40% @ -2.5
60% @ -2
80% @ -1.5

Push @ 1...NY is the play at the current line of 1.5

3.5 units

GL
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two21 3
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created a topic Was @ Sac
in NBA Betting
80% @ -1
60% @ -1.5
40% @ -2

Push @ 1; payout @ 1.5

Sac is the play here at the current line of 1.5

2 units

GL


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two21 1
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