winnwinnwinn

I keep all stats by hand....

The wise many nailed them saturday in NCAAF.

5-2 with 4 outright dog winners !

iowa +4 WIN
ncst +3.5 WIN
wky +3 WIN
troy +7  LOSS
aTm +14 LOSS
lamo +5.5 WIN
ucla +8.5

The wise man nailed them saturday !

12-3 nfl, 8-4 ncaa, 20-7 all football

Where did you get Monday newsparers ? I want one too !

Not big enough to lay points on the road against anyone. As I said, it is not only about calculating RZ percentages and picking the best team. It is a lot more than that. Good luck !

as the wise man once told me: "if you find a red zone edge, you will find the gold mine". here is my tribute to the wise man:

the wise man says:

miami +4

wash +4

ind +7

more sunday...gl

yup, lamo covered !

looks like 4-2 so far today...19-7 overall (73.1%) 

(7-4 ncaa, 12-3 nfl)

ucla pending

Hi bro. Here is the best explanation I can give, as it is really complicated...Also, at the end, it all depends on my feel. Sometimes I will stay away from the best redzone play on paper, or will take a smaller red zone edge play.

1. the red zone stats that count are td scored and allowed in the redzone, as well as red zone turnovers made and allowed (not taking field goals into the account because tds and turnovers in the redzone are the big impact plays).

2. i keep track of red zone stats from: all season, last 3 games, vs common opponents, home and away.

3. very important: compare teams ytd red zone stats vs all ytd opponents minus the game against the team in question.

4. make my lines based on red zone stats (i.e. when i said baltimore should not be favored at jacksonville on mnf, thats exactly what my numbers were telling, and the game turned out to be a huge surprise for many - but not for me). then compare my red zone line vs vegas line and look for the value. why ? because in some cases, i just believe that some teams, while deservedly favored, have a very small chance to win or cover because of their red zone offense or defense. ex: atlanta has a great red zone offense in the nfl and a very bad red zone defense. thats why their record is not better.

5. finally, it all comes down to my final feel about the game. last week marshall was the best red zone play in ncaa and they covered easily. unfortunatelly i did not have the time to play it or post it here. but the second best ncaa red zone play lost, and i wouldnt play it even if i had the time to place the wager. why ? because i just had the feeling that that teams rz numbers were not reliable recently.

good luck

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101167765

thosa are ncaa plays (2-0). all other plays were in the nfl

All red zone plays, the only difference is that this week I will post all of my red zone plays, and not only 2-3. I have plenty of time this week.