Posted:
#1
YTD (30-28) +24.20 units
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Battler's NRL Round 6
Posted:
#4
On a side note, this week I picked 7 out of 8 margins - which got me thinking. Not for a second do I think I can do that regularly, but perhaps maybe instead of hitting something with a low line for 3 units, maybe I could play it for 2 units with a unit on the 1-12 margin.
Assuming that the average margin pays around $3.00, you'd only have to hit them (the margins) at 50% to break even..
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Posted:
#5
Canberra kind of jumps off the page at me a little. The Titans have had to cover a lot of territory on their travels the past two weeks. Two big away wins, then back home for a friday nighter against the Raiders that kinda comes around quickly.
One thing about this competition is that it's tough for teams to be primed for prolonged periods. Not a great crowd expected at Skilled Park on friday night, this could be an awkward spot for the home side.
Also, Brad Meyers and Aaron Cannings will be out after suffering shoulder injuries last weekend in Townsville. That's a blow when you're up against a forward pack like Canberra's. 
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Posted:
#7
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:
On a side note, this week I picked 7 out of 8 margins - which got me thinking. Not for a second do I think I can do that regularly, but perhaps maybe instead of hitting something with a low line for 3 units, maybe I could play it for 2 units with a unit on the 1-12 margin.
Assuming that the average margin pays around $3.00, you'd only have to hit them (the margins) at 50% to break even..
I'd monitor that thought for a week or three AB, those under / over 12.5 margins always look inviting but they're pretty hit and miss in reality.
Might be worth a shot now and then in wet conditions like last night or with certain matchups like the Sharks and some other offensively challenged team.
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Posted:
#8
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:
I know 
Could I temper your disappointment by explaining that I've recently moved offices locally (albeit temporarily) and are feverishly making plans for a more permanent base away from home?
No?
Uh kay
I know how you feel. With winter coming I've had to move offices too - from the balconey to the lounge room
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T SURE
Posted:
#13
nice tipping last week battler
i give your knights a big chance to knock off the dragons this week
i can see a big let down for the dragons or if u like, a dragons side not breathing fire
I'll take the 5.5 now and LOCK it in
The dragons lets face it, aren't the most explosive attacking weapons in the comp
so 5.5 is massive
go on tip em mate, i know u want too
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Posted:
#17
My apologies that it's taken me 4 weeks to respond JT. But yes, I think it has everything to do with Brian Smith. I'll try not to write an essay, but let me separate two things: Brian Smith as a coach, and what Brian Smith has done at Newcaste.
I wasn't that displeased when rumours started circulating about Michael Hagan. Let's not forget that he inherited Warren Ryan's side, when he won the comp as a first year coach.
The problem with Hagan, and he is one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet in the football community, was that he wasn't hard enough as a coach. Newcastle became top-heavy, so much so that in 2002, about two thirds of our cap was taken up by 6 players.
The 'can't win without Joey' chorus has some merit as well. Newcastle couldn't win without Joey because they didn't play with a lot of structure. Johns was a 'play it as I see it' fellow, Warren Ryan has said as much himself. He didn't like structure, and didn't necessarily like to be coached. That is fine - while he's playing. But when he's out, you have a side without structure and now without their leader - bound for disaster.
When Smith and Hagan did their swap, Smith was by all accounts 'thrilled' to be working with Johns. Then, round 4, Johns retires.
Now Smith is hit with a dilemma - I'm caoching a side that has proven they cannot win without Johns, who will forever be without Johns. The majority of the deadwood he cut I agree with. But I disagree with the treatment he was given, because it should have been aimed at the club. No way would he have been making the culls he made without a prior license to do so by the club.
Anyhoo, I think history has shown that we a far deeper now than say 2 or 3 or 4 years ago - testament to Smith. He also made a statement locally: the time is over when every talented youngster in the Hunter thinks they'll have a walk-up start in the Knights. Rather, we'll nuture those who show promise, and strengthen our squad from outside if need be, in positions we think we are weaker in. This pissed a lot of people off - but was overdue in my opinion.
I always said that he couldn't be judged until at least after his second season. I think we'd all agree that the Knights came on leaps and bounds last year. This year, I think they have the best back-row rotation in the competition (yes, I'm serious), a decent front row, good competion for spots and some real strike amongst the backs, and a young but talented scrum base.
So, a resounding pass mark in my opinion.
As for Brian Smith as a coach, well there is a story that when Michael Hagan walked into Parramatta he looked around in awe and said 'jesus, look at this!'.
When Brian Smith walked into Newcastle, he looked around and said 'dear god, where do I start'.
He has always built clubs from the inside out, and I think his record stands testament to that.
The knockers will say he has never won a comp - which is true - but he has put a lot of teams in a position to win one. St George twice and Parramatta once to the big show. I'd think that by then, it's up to the players to get the final job done.
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Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:
On a side note, this week I picked 7 out of 8 margins - which got me thinking. Not for a second do I think I can do that regularly, but perhaps maybe instead of hitting something with a low line for 3 units, maybe I could play it for 2 units with a unit on the 1-12 margin.
Assuming that the average margin pays around $3.00, you'd only have to hit them (the margins) at 50% to break even..
Jamie Soward has completely raped 1-12 margin backers in the last few weeks
Dragons vs Broncos,79th min Dragons leading 24-12,Soward kicks a field goal for the 25-12 victory
Dragons vs Eels ,79 min the big Dell scores out wide to make the score 20-8,Soward kicks the conversion from out wide for the 22-8 victory
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Posted:
#20
Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:
Jamie Soward has completely raped 1-12 margin backers in the last few weeks
Dragons vs Broncos,79th min Dragons leading 24-12,Soward kicks a field goal for the 25-12 victory
Dragons vs Eels ,79 min the big Dell scores out wide to make the score 20-8,Soward kicks the conversion from out wide for the 22-8 victory
Jamie Soward has completely raped 1-12 margin backers in the last few weeks
Dragons vs Broncos,79th min Dragons leading 24-12,Soward kicks a field goal for the 25-12 victory
Dragons vs Eels ,79 min the big Dell scores out wide to make the score 20-8,Soward kicks the conversion from out wide for the 22-8 victory
I had never really paid attention to that. I just took my 13+ and ran with it. Nice observation Ace
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Posted:
#21
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:
For those that haven't seen them:
Penriff $2.60 (+5.5) v Brisbane --- Ack
Gold Coast $1.35 (-8.5) v Canberra --- Raiders +pts
St George $1.50 (-5.5) v Newcastle --- Dragons -pts
Rabbits $2.50 (+4.5) v Manly --- Manly HUGE (Souths MNF)
Warriors $1.48 (-5.5) v Rooters --- ???
Cronulla $2.40 (+4) v Cowboys --- Sharks +pts
Plodders $2.60 (+5.5) v Dogs --- Ack
Tiggers $2.95 (+7.5) v Storm - Ack
Upon first glance..........
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