Form Guide Round 15 with winners and Margins

 

Back the Bulldogs giving the 9.5 start.

 

Others in Short

BULLDOGS + 11

COWBOYS + 3

STORM + 11

MANLY + 2.5

SHARKS + 11

 

Gl today i would advise you put $1000 on the doggies -9.5 of your $5000 credit 

Ummm, close.

 

But I am down $1K....

 

Was a rookie mistake not taking doggies 1 to 12....

 

The source is a mate, he has created a formulae for handicapping. He also does a write up....see below his comments for tomorrows games. BOL everyone.

 

COWBOYS v. ROOSTERS

 

It has been used before but waiting for the Roosters to win is like "leaving the porch light on for Harold Holt". The Roosters do have an advantage in the backs but I believe that the Cowboys have a bit to much bottle in their under rated pack. There is nothing between the teams on their record at Dairy Farmers and the main advantage for the Cowboys will come off their bench. The Roosters have a very bright up and comer in Symonds on the bench but I just get the feeling that the home ground advantage and the disappointment of their last minute loss to the Titans will swing the game ever so slightly to the Cowboys. The Roosters have more than one "Sissy Whacker" in their team and this will count against them in a close tussle.

 

Maybe a game to take in the Tri Bet, that neither side wins by more than 6.5

 

STORM v. TIGERS

 

Even without their SOO stars, the Storm have still come up with a backline that outrates the Tigers, scary is it? Or are the Tigers that inept? The Tigers pack has been dealt a blow with Heighington out and this now gives a slight advantage to the Storm in the pigs also. The Storm have an A grade kid in J. Maloney coming off the bench and he is one right out of the box. The Tigers have not performed too well in the past in Melbourne and even though Benji played more of a six's role against the Eels and that got the Tigers home, they will find that the mid strength Storm in Melbourne have a lot more potency then a full strenth Eel. 

 

Back the Storm to blow away the Tigers giving the 5.5 start.

I just dropped $2K on the Storm giving 6....will throw $500 on the Cowboys 1 to 12. I have a multi going looking to pay me $25K, so fingers crossed!

Note I put $750 on Cowboys....

 

I have also put $250 on the margins.....

Oh dear

GL THOUGH 

Don't stress, I am fortuante to have $5K to drop....but I won't have anymore. So fingers crossed....I have $1K left for Monday. Hopefully I have a win before then.

You're throwing 40% of your roll on one play.

 

 

 

Good luck bert

Thats easy, just get another loan 

I missed this, where did you get the $5k from? Please tell me you are not borrowing money to fund gambling

Update.

 

I was unable to cover a bet I laid down in the Covers forum as my CC was maxed. I asked the bookie for credit and got $5K. I have since contacted a mate who charges people for his tips. I figure I should give this a "Red Hot Go" and plunge hard on his tips, which I am posting for everyone.

 

His first tip said Doggies to win by 9.5, they won by 7 and I took the Doggies with -12.5, so lost the first $1K. Stupid as I either should have taken 1-12 of nothing, anyway, won’t stuff up like that again. I have now laid bets of the following - $750 on Cowboys to win 1 to 12 to pay $1837.50, $2K Storm to win -6  to pay $1820, Multi $250 Cowboys 1 to 12, Storm 1 to 12, Manly 1 -12 and Cronulla 1 to 12 to pay $25845.80. ($30K would be nice..)

 

I have $1K left. Which I will plunge on Monday Night once I get the form update.

 

Now this is my first serious plunge on footy. I used to drop $1K a week in the Pokies in my twenties, I gave up all gambling for several years, except the odd bet on Parra....so appreciate this sounds like a complete train wreck, but I am not reserved when it comes to this. So let's see where I am at come Monday night! Please understand that I have had several unbelievable wins in the years and considered very tinny by everyone I know. My goal is to make $50K, let’s see how I go.

In total, you have 20% of your $5k on the Cowboys tonight. I read your mates writeup, and I think he may have spun you a bit of shit.

 

He says: there is nothing between the teams on their record at Dairy Farmers..

 

Well, I don't know about you, but I'd think the fact that the Roosters are 9-2 in Townsville is pretty fucking significant. In fact, they've won six of the past eight and 19 from 22 overall (86%).

 

Whilst your mate doesn't mention it, I'm sure he realises that Origin is on this week and subsequently there will be a few important ommissions from the Cowboys line-up. One of those is their halfback and captain. Since he joined the Cowboys in 2005, they have won a paltry four from 18 (22%) of games that he has missed. Furthermore, the Cowboys have never won when both O'Donnell and Bowen were missing - granted though it's only a small sample size (0-4).

 

So far we have established that the Cowboys lose to the Roosters 86% of the time regardless of whether Thurston plays or not, and that, when he doesn't play (like tonight) they lose 78% of games against all opposition. But stats are just that, stats.

 

Did you watch the Cowboys v Dragons game last week? I did, and I was struck by the pathetic ineptness of the Cowboys right-hand defense. It was very ordinary. I have since found out that they have leaked 20 tries down that edge this year, compared to just 12 down their left edge.

 

Now, surely even Freddy and Fatso would have picked up on that. Assuming that they did in fact notice this defensive weakness, I'd imagine that they would have been as happy as two little pigs in shit when they realised that it just so happens that their attacking strength is their left-edge! They have scored 24 tries down their left, and just 9 down their right.

 

So, now we have also established that the Roosters strength is also the Cowboys weakness.

 

Finally, your mate - who I think I have shown would be unable to distinguish shit from clay if it hit him in the face - has sold you 'either team under 6.5 points', yet you have bet the Cowboys 1-12, thereby eliminating the possibility of a narrow Roosters victory.

 

In summing up, I have made an argument against the Cowboys tonight. However, I'm sure one could make an argument against the Roosters as well. That is not my point.

 

My point is, do you really think that this game is a good one to throw $1,000 - or 20% of your $5k limit (which, incidentally you will have to pay back) on?

 

 

AB,

 

Great write up!! My mate, actually colleague might be more appropriate, has been getting 65% for over 5 years and this has been documented ( I know he should work for covers..), in saying this my thought process was simply follow his tips. His formula says Cowboys +3, so I am going at them to win 1 to 12, a little greedy, but I should have done this for the Doggies. 

 

Don't get the shits with me, happy for you to advise how I should invest the $$$, I am just being as transparent as possible. 

 

Wonder if Fittlers antics will do for them..

 

Please don't get the shits with me, I am just