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NRL Finals Plays (Week One)...

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Posted: #1
56-45-0 (+28.38)

Really looking forward to the game tonight. Waiting for the bookie to give me the right number.

Since 2000 the 'Minor Premier' has appeared in the Grand Final 10 times. The only 'Minor Premiers' to miss the GF during this time was Parramatta in 2005 and St George in 2009.

In the history of the NRL, no player who won the Dally M has gone onto win a Grand Final...


 
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Posted: #2
Good stuff there bud but think Ben Barba changes all that tonight.
 
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Leaning Seagles based on the halves and Finals experience. The Chooks game was the worst possible lead-in game for the Dogs and do buy in that they somewhat peaked too early whereas Manly are finding their groove at the right time. Also reckon Toovey planted a seed with the refs regarding the 'illegal' Doggies set plays.

Number fluctuating so doing a little 'window' line shopping...


 
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Posted: #4
I think the Seagles have played as bout as good as they can. The last month or so may have taken an edge off them a bit.
 
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Posted: #5
Speaking of the line it does appear to be set to induce Doggies money, thought we'd see a pick'em or Canterbury -3.5...
 
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Posted: #6
footy show special was doggies to win 2.85 too, dont put me off the dogs such a tough call
 
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$50,000 @ $1.80 on v ($2.05). Before that bet 60% of money on Bulldogs.

 
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Posted: #8
This is an identical line as the one in Round 20 at Brooky but this time the Dogs are at home. From a -15 favorite one week to an underdog the following week is a rare occurrence in the NRL...
 
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Posted: #9
no brett stewart last time round...and seagles weren't in form
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by chivashoolio:

$50,000 @ $1.80 on v ($2.05). Before that bet 60% of money on Bulldogs.



Hate seeing that as someone leaning Manly. Most of the time the mug with 50k lying around to bet on an NRL game, emphasize NRL loses the bet. Occurred a few times this year.

Emphasized NRL because I do believe it is one of the more dodgier sports to wager on. More dodgy than anything the USA has to offer and that's the truth...
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by emkee:




Emphasized NRL because I do believe it is one of the more dodgier sports to wager on. More dodgy than anything the USA has to offer and that's the truth...



That's because league is too touchy-feely with multiple betting agencies.

Week #1 of the NFL has 5 games with 1 to 2 point spreads and another at 3.5. And that's a low number. I maybe hit 12 spreads a year in the NFL. 80% of my money does NCAA football, just by the fact there are many more games each week.
 
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Posted: #12
That's exactly it Norse. Hard to feel overly confident with such a strong and blatant 'bookie' influence.

NFL, NBA, NCAA are my bread and butter gambling-wise with the odd dabble in the MLB but I genuinely do feel like my money is somewhat 'safer' contrary to what a lot of folks think. Love the league though but more-so for entertainment purposes, would never think of laying more than 4k on it.

And right on cue there is a very dodgy 'no try' ruling in the Toyota Cup game denying the Tigers a try...
 
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Posted: #13
Both sides have excellent records at ANZ Stadium. The Bulldogs have won eight consecutive matches at their home ground - their last defeat coming against Manly, who stole the points 12-10 in their round eight meeting. The Sea Eagles have won 11 of their past 15 matches at the ground, including two grand finals.

Seagles are 27-2 SU when scoring first in their last 29 games...


 
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Posted: #14
Join the rest of us on the dogs

All for one and one for all
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by emkee:



Hate seeing that as someone leaning Manly. Most of the time the mug with 50k lying around to bet on an NRL game, emphasize NRL loses the bet. Occurred a few times this year.

Emphasized NRL because I do believe it is one of the more dodgier sports to wager on. More dodgy than anything the USA has to offer and that's the truth...

Could have not said better myself

 
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Posted: #16
adding...

Manly Sea Eagles at Canterbury Bulldogs

The play...

Sea Eagles $1.84 (2 units)

Line fluctuation screams Doggies but reluctantly going with my first lean based on what I said above. 85% confidence factor...


 
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Posted: #17
gl bud
 
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Posted: #18
Other side will be the winner tonight sorry
 
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Posted: #19
me and you mate
 
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Posted: #20
Fellas...



Good health Snake...


 
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Posted: #21
Fluctuations told no lies last night in the end. Manly were screwed as long as Ennis returned for the 2nd half and Lyon didn't. Bought out a little bit just before halftime got underway after seeing Mick trot out (mentioned in the in-game but failed to confirm) and managed to minimize the damage.

Will hopefully find some winners tonight...
 
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Posted: #22
BOL emkee, bounce back tonight! 
 
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Posted: #23
Thanks Phat.

Storm 10-0 last 10 versus the Bunnies.

Doncos 4-1 last 5 games played at Townsville.




 
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Posted: #24
Hate when you put those stats up and I'm on the otherside 
 
 
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Posted: #25
just like the knights were undefeated on old boys night or some shit? those stats mean jack shit really
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