NRL Week 21

NRL YTD 157-127-4 +43.60 units

Going to post my plays tonight for the game tomorrow as will be at work all day and then going to the chiefs game tomorrow night so wont be round much. Here goes and BOL on the weekend boys and girls.

Friday Night Football Stats:

Favs Su: 24-11

Favs ATS: 18-16-1

Totals: 15-19

Picks:

Storm -5.5 2 units @ $1.90

Well this line is short and im going to take advantage while can. Billy the kid is back this week and could be just what the storm has been looking for. They are in a slump and i think this could be their ticket to winning again. The Storm are 12-6 Su and ATS for the season and Saints are 8-10 Su and 6-12-0 ATS for the season. This doesnt really mean to much with the losing streak that storm have been on but think that all gets changed this weekend. Also as a side note the FNF favs are 7-6-0 ATS in this point spread.

Titans -2.5 1 unit @ $1.90

This line is also very short and like the Titans a lot in this match up. They got a good win last friday night over the Broncos and well the Chooks are really down on form at the moment and struggling to beat teams and play to their full ability. The Titans are 8-10 Su on the season and 10-8-0 ATS. The Chooks are 6-11 Su and 10-8-0 ATS for the season and havn shown the ability to keep games they lose close indicated by the good spread record but this line is short and the titans are playing really well at the moment.

Titans/Chooks under 38.5 1 unit @ $1.90

Like this game to be a low scoring battle all the way. In this match up the both teams struggle to score points at times and the titans have a very good D. So that really should all point towards this game going under. The Titans are 6-12 on totals for the season and the Chooks are 11-7 on totals but have been having a few under games of late. Also FNF is and unders night just to back the under a little more.

BOL

Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:

ACE

Always a man of many words is the great ACE

Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:





ACE is really Manu Vatuvei. A man of few words

Dont you mean a man who cant speak at all

Phatty

NRL YTD 158-129-4 +41.50 units

Storm

Under

Titans

Losing night on the NRL but who really cares win you win a shit load on the chiefs and the Chiefs are going to the final. Yea buddy.

Had a kind of rough outing last night but looking to bounce back with a good card tonight.

Picks:

Warriors/Sea Eagles over 42.5 2 units @ $1.90

This game is going to be a track meet. Points will be scored all over the park tonight and i think we can all agree with that. The Warriors have been an over machine all year and now on travel i think their D will be weak and the Birds should be on the bounce back after a tough lost last week to the doggies. The Warriors are 13-5 on totals for the season and the Sea Eagles are 8-10 on totals for the season. So the stats suggest the over and thats my gut feeling and the way this game sets up.

Cowgurls +4.5 2 unit @ $1.90

This is a huge let down spot for the Doggies in my opinion. They hard a really hard game last week that they came out on top of and then to add with that they have a couple key players out this week and just think the cowgurls are hitting their straps with the way they played on MNF. The Cowgurls are 11-7 Su and 10-8-0 ATS for the season and the doggies are 13-5 Su and 14-3-1 ATS but with them stats in mind still think this will be a let down spot for the doggies and they will give up the win. Also to consider is that the cowgurls fall under the MNF Fav who wins is 4-5 Su and 3-6-0 ATS the next week but really think that wont be a factor tonight.

Cowgurls Su 1 unit @ $2.50

Panthers +4.0 2 units @ $1.90

This play is based on Miky Gordan being back and Gallo and carney not playing and also still no graham. This just seems like will be to much for the Sharks to over come and the panthers did play wel last week. The Panthers are 5-13 Su and 7-11-0 ATS for the season and the Sharks are 10-7-1 Su and 11-7-0 ATS for the season but this play is not based on the stats more based on the sharks just having to many key players out for the game tonight and the panthers did show some game last week.

Panthers Su 1 unit @ $2.30

Will have more on the card later on but this is what im going to start with. Will have some prop bets as i usually do and love to play so much.

BOL

Lunchbox

Yea i also like the card tonight. There is some really value in all 3 dogs tonight and the more i look over the Warriors game i think that they are worth a shot at +6. Sea Eagles didnt look very flash since last week and really havnt looked good at all since that 40 point half against the Eels.

Yeah, i feel a let down spot for the dogs as well.

Here is a stat...

The dogs have ONLY conceeded 4 tries in the last 20 minute of games ALL THIS YEAR.......

That is crazy stat. Yea saw what you had to say in another thread. I think the Doggies wil miss Big Sam and really going to struggle with Josh not really having a decent halves partner. And the Cowgurls looked super good on MNF and just hoping they can carry that form through into this game

Davopnz

Yea i dont think you have that right, a lot of money can be made from judging when a team is due a let spot and this game really speaks to me.

Have been looking over the prop bets for the games tonight and have a few that i want throw down.

Picks:

Cowgurls Time of First try before 18 mins 30 secs 2 units @ $1.90

Kalifa Faifai Loa Try scorer 1 unit @ $1.90

Sam Perrett Try Scorer 1 unit @ $1.90

Warriors time of First try before 18 mins 30 secs 2 units @ $1.90

Konrad Hurrell Try Scorer 2 units @ $1.90

Going big on Konrad as he didnt score last week so my gues would be that he dots down for a couple tonight.

That should be me for bets tonight but you never really know there could always be time to get more in.

BOL

Nice win for your Chiefs....

I will never never ever bet againt my dogs...never, but if i was to it would be tonight.....However, teams from MNF have been horrific this year in the next round.....

Also, the Cows did struggle to put an absolutely decimated tigers team away last week, ie, the tigs were in the game till the 77th minute....If the tigs had their full team, they would have won...

I think under is maybe a good bet here tonight......The dogs defense is very very good, i think they lose a bit of scoring firepower in Kas and Keating out......

42.5 is a pretty high numbe,r maybe a half time bet...

Blackcrow

I can see what you are saying mate but all the same think its going to be a good night for the dogs to get up for the wins.

Phatty