It's been a very successful super rugby season on the punt, primarily because I've been picking the eyes out of each round and playing 1, maybe 2 games a round. No such luxury this weekend. So what's going to happen?
Lets start with the forwards. There is no doubt that Crusaders have the advantage at the set piece. I expect them to win the line-out battle something like 4-1 against the throw. If the margin turns out to be greater then the resulting pressure from ball retention and/or field position could in itself win the game. Crucial too of course will be where on the paddock the Crusaders pinch the Tahs throw. I expect the Waratahs scrum to hold firm, I know the Crusaders scrum will. If the Crusaders manage to buckle the Tahs scrum that too could prove decisive, not only forcing penalties but putting the Tahs backs on the back foot. The battle for the ball at the breakdown will of course be vital but with both sides having excellent clean-out players I can see considerable periods of ball retention for both sides.
I give the advantage in the forwards to Crusaders but expect NSW to have around 45% of possession. Will this be enough? The Tah's backs have been superb all season, aided by amazing good fortune with lack of injuries. Man on man you may even favour the Crusaders backs but as a unit NSW gets the nod. Kurtley has been mesmerising and Folau keeps putting himself in try scoring positions. Even if the ball doesn't find him he draws defenders and creates space for others. Tah's options have been good, their execution has been good and their mistakes have been minimal.
One would expect the result to come down to which side converts their opportunities but other factors that could easily decide the game are the impact of Skelton from the bench, who has their goal kicking boots on and the performance of Joubert. The other key element and the deciding factor in my selection is the mental toughness of the NZ side - not as Crusaders but as All Blacks. So many have had years of playing under the AB culture of learning how to win even on the rare occasions when they haven't been the better side.
It should be an absolute cracker of a game. I dearly hope the Waratahs come out on top but forced to make a tip I'll say Crusaders.
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