Haven't been this excited for a sports day in a while. UEFA really hit it out of the park w/ this new format and think we'll see an unprecedented amount of goals tomorrow as teams chase coveted bye and playoff spots. Pool and Barca have already earned the byes while teams won't be able to close the GD of Arsenal and Inter. At the bottom of the draw, City and Dinamo are on the outside looking but w/ 19-24 still catchable, I feel like caution will be thrown to the wind. GD matters and that's why I took on Bovada the special of 41+ goals total (+1000) in the following matches: Villa/Celtic, Barca/Atalanta, Brest/Madrid, Dinamo/AC Milan, Dortmund/Shakhtar, Girona/Arsenal, Juventus/Benfica, City/Brugge, Stuttgart/PSG, and Lille/Feyenoord as well as 9+ goals in at least 1 of the games (+900). It sounds like a lot, but outside of the Girona/Arsenal match (which I think will still see 2-3 goals), the inevitable shuffling in the standings, particularly at the bottom, is going to be an emotional rollercoaster w/ goals and cards likely to follow. Remember that moving on in CL brings a huge financial bonus to these teams and missing out would be financial devastation to teams who were expecting to go through like PSG and City.
City/Brugge - Gotta start here right? I believe Pep's teams have always made through into the knockouts, which is remarkable considering he started his first team managerial career in 2008. If the pressure of keeping that record intact wasn't enough, Pep also has the financial implications of not making it to the next round hanging over his head. Normally, I wouldn't think twice of backing City in this situation at this stage of the tournament but we're not dealing w/ the City of old. W/ Walker's recent exit, I struggle to find the Agueros, Kompanys, and (old) Gundogans that City could lean upon in years past to help them ease through. De Bruyne? Age and injuries seem to have caught up. Foden? Inconsistent and has gone missing for chunks of this season. Rodri? Injured. City HAMMERED this Brugge side back in '21 4-1 and 5-1 but I don't see that happening. Outside of City's own issues, this Brugge side is disciplined and tough to break down and has shown some impressive results in CL this season including wins over Villa and Sporting. Had it not been for a late meltdown against Dortmund of all teams on Matchday 1, they would probably be through. Still think City will create chances and tomorrow will come down to the stars. Pep's been more active in getting Haaland involved and I expect him to deliver as the shots will be there. Haaland 5+ shots (+109), 6+ shots (+195), 3+ SOG (+200), 4+ SOG (+500) are my plays. Look at Haaland's stats against teams not from the top 5 leagues (Sparta Praha, Sporting CP, Feyenoord). He'll play the whole 90 unless the game turns into a blowout, which I don't think it will.
Be back in the morning after mulling over more games.
Hot Forum Topics
