2021-22 LaLiga/EPL/SerieA/Bundesliga/Ligue 1 Picks

I will try to focus on the big 5 European leagues this season and post any picks that I may have in this thread.

The first league to kick off is Ligue 1 this weekend. I like one play in week one from France

1. Angers +0.50 @ 1.91/-110 (FRA) Bet365

I had this game set as a PK'em, so I am backing the visitors in this matchup. Angers finished above Strasbourg last season and with a similar payroll both sides look like they will be battling in the bottom half of the table this season. In the last 10 head to head encounters Strasbourg only won once with a most recent 0-0 scoreline. Angers does have a difference maker in Angelo Fulgini who I think is going to have a great season.

2. Lyon/Brest UNDER 3.5 @ 1.91/-110 (FRA) Marathon 1u

Lyon will start life without their top scorer Memphis Depay who is off to Barcelona. Lyon will also be without another attacking threat Jeff Reine Adelaide who is injured. Both teams come into this game with new managers. Brest's manager is Michael Der Zakarian a former defender, with a defense first approach to tactics. Add to all that change is the weather, where it it forecast to pour heavy rain. Over 3.5 goals is just too much.

Good Luck this season DJ!  Your diligence should prove successful.   Thank you. 

 DJ 

Wolfe---

I got 5---

Great thread DJ  Good luck this season I’ll be around all season for your great insights!! 

Paletta---

3. Metz/Lille OVER 2 @ 1.95/-105 (FRA) Bet 365 1u

I cant pass up the value on the total in this match. The last 13 head to head games 13 have had 2 or more goals. Last season Lille averaged 2.23 goals per games & Metz 2.42. Metz have their star striker Niane back after missing much of last season through injury. I think Metz can knick a goal in their home opener & we know Lille can score. Hoping for a 2-1 result.

Thank you for posting BOL

Spot on in France this weekend, well done 

paletta---

ykim---

4. Lille ML & PSG ML (2 team parlay) @ 2.18/+118 (FRA) Bet365 1u

I almost never play parlays, but you are giving me the defending champs at home & the overwhelming fav's to win the title also at home, and at plus money. I'm jumping on this line early in the week as the favourites almost always take on money closer to kick off and before PSG might sign you know who.

5. PSG -1.5 @ 1.80/-125 (FRA) Marathon 1u

6. PSG OVER 3.5 @ 2.13/+110 (FRA) Pinnacle 1u

The owners of PSG are all in to win the Champions league and they are building a super team of epic proportions. Strasbourg stand absolutely no chance here. I was thinking of a 1.05 line & a -2.5 AH. The last 2 head to head meetings ended with PSG winning 4-0 & 4-1. I also like the total over as last season PSG games averaged 3 gpg & Strasbourg 2.82.

7. Lille ML @ 1.89/-112 (FRA) Marathon 1u

Once again jumping on the line early as it is yet another favourite that I had at 1.50/-200. The last head to head encounter ended in a 2-0 scoreline for Lille & prior to that in Lille it was 4-0 for Les Dogues. Both sides are coming off of draws in the opening week, Lille away to Metz 3-3 & Nice at home to Reims 0-0. I was also tempted to take the win to nil option on Lille as that was their MO last season, but the fact they gave up 3 scared me off.

I like it! 

Lets shift focus to the Bundesliga;

8. Borussia Monchengladbach +1 @ 2.11/+111 (GER) 1u Pinnacle

I wanted to wait closer to kickoff to get a better price, however the line has actually drifted away from Bayern Munich. The current champs are winless in their friendlies this summer with 1 draw and 3 losses including a loss to their opponents Borussia. The last 2 times Bayern played in Borussia they lost both 3-2 & 2-1. The jury is still out on Bayerns new manager Julian Nagelsmann. I expect the home side to challenge for the top 4 in Germany.

9. Stuttgart ML @ 1.85/-117 (GER) 1u Bet365

Greuther Furth the newly promoted side and odds on favourite to finish bottom visit Stuttgart. The home side have only lost once in the past 6 games and that was to Barcelona. The visitors are winless in their past 5. The last time Stuttgart hosted Greuther furth was in the second division back in 2019 where they won 2-0. Stuttgart managed to finish mid table as the promoted side last season. As it stands now I do not expect much from Greuther Furth.

10. Union Berlin/Bayer Leverkusen OVER 2.5 @ 1.91/-110 (GER) 1u Bet365

This is a strictly a numbers play. Favourites and overs almost all the time get the public bets. Last season Berlin averaged 2.74 goals per game & Leverkusen averaged 2.71 gpg. Form wise 4 of the past 7 games for both sides have gone over the total. I had the total over 2.5 set at 1.80/-125. A tad of value nonetheless.

Crush Germany this weekend 

EPL here we go;

11. Brighton/Burnley to DRAW @ 3.15/+215 (ENG) 1u Marathon

Last season these sides finished 16th & 17th in the table. Brighton led the league with 14 games ending level. There is not too much to separate these sides. The last 2 head to head meetings ended level with 1-1 & 0-0 scorelines. Hoping for something similar on Saturday to start the season.

12. Manchester United -1 @ 1.99/-101 (ENG) 1u Marathon

Usually you do not find too much value backing the big teams at home. I think as we get closer to kick off this line might change so I'm jumping on it early. Last season when Leeds came to Manchester they got beat 6-2 and that was without fans. Leeds have had a poor run in their summer friendlies going winless in the past 5 games. Give me the Red Devils on the Asian Handicap.

13. Everton ML @ 1.98/-102 (ENG) 1u Marathon

14. Everton win to Nil @ 3.25/+225 (ENG) 1/2u Bet365

As a Liverpool fan its going to be fun cheering for Man U & Everton this weekend. Southampton had the leagues worse second half record last season. They also lost their top goal scorer Danny Ings to Aston Villa. You have to wonder who is going to score for the Saints. Rafa Benitez starts his stint at the "small club" and we know Rafa is all about defense first. Once again I expect this line to shorten come kickoff as I'm backing another home favourite.

15. Valencia PK @ 1.77/-130 (SPA) 1u Marathon

Valencia have been really good at home last season they picked up 31 points in 19 games. It was their away form that led to them finishing in 13th position their worse since the 87/88 season. The away side Getafe only managed 13 points away from home and they were an under machine with their matches averaging 1.87 goals per game. I'm expecting a low scoring win for the home side.