Treading lightly here looking for value plays (usually player props)
Brest/PSG - Leaning under here in a tight and cagey affair as knockouts usually go between league rivals who are VERY familiar w/ each other as they've faced off every season since 2019/2020. Last 6 matches between the two sides have seen 3+ goals, including their most recent match at the beginning of the month, which ended in a 2-5 victory for PSG at Brest. Naturally, you wouldn't think twice going w/ the over and PSG covering the -1.5 spread except Champions League form is NOT equivalent to domestic league form, and Europe has a knack for springing the unexpected. That being said, Brest limps into the playoffs after being shut out two straight to Real Madrid and Shakhtar while PSG tore off three straight victories starting in Salzburg, then that 4-goal 2H comeback against City, and ending w/ a dominant display over Stuttgart in Germany to save the embarrassment of not making it to the playoffs. That run has them flying high combined w/ Dembele's scintillating form of 16 goals in his last 10 matches including two hat tricks and a brace in his last three games. Not to mention, the Georgian wonderkid already seems to be loving life in Paris as he has fit seamlessly into that vaunted attack. Yet, I still can't pull the trigger on PSG to continue its' dominant form over Brest. Not when it'll be Brest's first ever showing in the knockouts at home. I saw what knockout qualification meant to the team and its' fanbase and you can bet that stadium will be rocking. Instead, I'm all over Romain Faivre's 2+ shots (+339), 1+ SOG (+300), and 2+ SOG (+1900). Those odds are usually attached to a defender, not a midfielder who is an integral part of Brest's attack. In fact, he had 2 SOG against PSG in their most recent affair, which by the way Brest actually equalled PSG on both shots (14) and SOT (7). He's familiar w/ PSG, having played in Ligue 1 since the 2018/19 season, and plays deep into matches when he does start. Was going to wait to see if he starts or not before placing these bets but rather get these in now before odds change .
Good luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Treading lightly here looking for value plays (usually player props)
Brest/PSG - Leaning under here in a tight and cagey affair as knockouts usually go between league rivals who are VERY familiar w/ each other as they've faced off every season since 2019/2020. Last 6 matches between the two sides have seen 3+ goals, including their most recent match at the beginning of the month, which ended in a 2-5 victory for PSG at Brest. Naturally, you wouldn't think twice going w/ the over and PSG covering the -1.5 spread except Champions League form is NOT equivalent to domestic league form, and Europe has a knack for springing the unexpected. That being said, Brest limps into the playoffs after being shut out two straight to Real Madrid and Shakhtar while PSG tore off three straight victories starting in Salzburg, then that 4-goal 2H comeback against City, and ending w/ a dominant display over Stuttgart in Germany to save the embarrassment of not making it to the playoffs. That run has them flying high combined w/ Dembele's scintillating form of 16 goals in his last 10 matches including two hat tricks and a brace in his last three games. Not to mention, the Georgian wonderkid already seems to be loving life in Paris as he has fit seamlessly into that vaunted attack. Yet, I still can't pull the trigger on PSG to continue its' dominant form over Brest. Not when it'll be Brest's first ever showing in the knockouts at home. I saw what knockout qualification meant to the team and its' fanbase and you can bet that stadium will be rocking. Instead, I'm all over Romain Faivre's 2+ shots (+339), 1+ SOG (+300), and 2+ SOG (+1900). Those odds are usually attached to a defender, not a midfielder who is an integral part of Brest's attack. In fact, he had 2 SOG against PSG in their most recent affair, which by the way Brest actually equalled PSG on both shots (14) and SOT (7). He's familiar w/ PSG, having played in Ligue 1 since the 2018/19 season, and plays deep into matches when he does start. Was going to wait to see if he starts or not before placing these bets but rather get these in now before odds change .
Nice, Faivre is in. That total has dropped fast since last night. Still think we see a good amount of chances from both sides but not sure that’ll mean goals. Have a hunch PSG will be booked over 1.5 but it isn’t backed up by numbers as they’re tied with Barcelona for the least number of bookings all competition with 8 yellows and 1 red. They do have some hot heads on the team who can easily get booked though and I’m anticipating Brest to frustrate them so at -110 debating if it’s worth the risk. I lean 1H under but always scary with the ability of PSG to find the net. Will be watching so maybe a live play IF odds are worth it.
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Nice, Faivre is in. That total has dropped fast since last night. Still think we see a good amount of chances from both sides but not sure that’ll mean goals. Have a hunch PSG will be booked over 1.5 but it isn’t backed up by numbers as they’re tied with Barcelona for the least number of bookings all competition with 8 yellows and 1 red. They do have some hot heads on the team who can easily get booked though and I’m anticipating Brest to frustrate them so at -110 debating if it’s worth the risk. I lean 1H under but always scary with the ability of PSG to find the net. Will be watching so maybe a live play IF odds are worth it.
Rooting for you man, I LOVE those odds. I agree with the goals, on the surface one could think easy 3-0, 3-1 PSG win, I don't think its that simple. Could also be 1-0, or 2-0 which I'm leaning on more. Did my homework last night and took PSG ml(I gotta go recent form and H2H history on this despite being chalky af) + btts yes in Juve/PSV +140. These Champ games or any cup type games can go wacky af quickly, which is why I like your angle on Faivre. 1 bet is enough for me today, will be watching the 2:45 games with a potential live bet.
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@I3C1H
Rooting for you man, I LOVE those odds. I agree with the goals, on the surface one could think easy 3-0, 3-1 PSG win, I don't think its that simple. Could also be 1-0, or 2-0 which I'm leaning on more. Did my homework last night and took PSG ml(I gotta go recent form and H2H history on this despite being chalky af) + btts yes in Juve/PSV +140. These Champ games or any cup type games can go wacky af quickly, which is why I like your angle on Faivre. 1 bet is enough for me today, will be watching the 2:45 games with a potential live bet.
Yea I agree. Watching the game and it’s funny to see them feel each other out even though they know each other so well. I like the Juventus game a lot too. Kolo Muani has been playing well and Juventus seems to have become a bit more clinical since the beginning of the season. Was leaning Juventus TT over 1.5 and think that game (along with City/Madrid) will see a 1H goal. Good luck with all your plays today .
@UnderdogKing
100% agree. Think that’s a good approach. Maybe home teams will press a bit hoping they go into the second leg with a goal advantage but will have to see. If anything it’s all live plays for me other than props. Good luck!
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@Cmlee123
Yea I agree. Watching the game and it’s funny to see them feel each other out even though they know each other so well. I like the Juventus game a lot too. Kolo Muani has been playing well and Juventus seems to have become a bit more clinical since the beginning of the season. Was leaning Juventus TT over 1.5 and think that game (along with City/Madrid) will see a 1H goal. Good luck with all your plays today .
@UnderdogKing
100% agree. Think that’s a good approach. Maybe home teams will press a bit hoping they go into the second leg with a goal advantage but will have to see. If anything it’s all live plays for me other than props. Good luck!
It will be interesting to see how this battle unfolds, especially given the high stakes for both sides. Thank you for sharing your opinion and good luck with your bets!
1
@I3C1H
It will be interesting to see how this battle unfolds, especially given the high stakes for both sides. Thank you for sharing your opinion and good luck with your bets!
It will be interesting to see how this battle unfolds, especially given the high stakes for both sides. Thank you for sharing your opinion and good luck with your bets!
0
@I3C1H
It will be interesting to see how this battle unfolds, especially given the high stakes for both sides. Thank you for sharing your opinion and good luck with your bets!
This is why I refused to take the under despite leaning that way if anything this will be good for our props as Brest will need to press the action here. They CANNOT afford to go to Paris at a disadvantage.
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This is why I refused to take the under despite leaning that way if anything this will be good for our props as Brest will need to press the action here. They CANNOT afford to go to Paris at a disadvantage.
Taking over 2.5 total bookings at halftime for plus money. This is for Brest and they know it. Bosnian referee averages 4+ cards. Expect to see some hard fouls and desperation.
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Taking over 2.5 total bookings at halftime for plus money. This is for Brest and they know it. Bosnian referee averages 4+ cards. Expect to see some hard fouls and desperation.
City/Madrid - Wow that lineup City is putting out reminds me of the old days. Will they play like the old City? Will be on the 1H over here as Pep's MO has always been to score (or concede) early. Don't forget that the first leg between the two sides has features fireworks before a more muted and conservative second leg. Hard to pick who will step up today but liking Jude Bellingham's 1+ SOG (+100), 2+ SOG (+500) and 1+ asts (+600). Think that ast bet has really good value given Jude does play provider to three clinical finishers in Mbappe, Vini, and Rodrygo. I was at the game Jude scored against City w/ Dortmund and after a mediocre performance in first visit to England this season at Liverpool, I think he'll be a difference maker today.
Juventus/PSG - These two played earlier this season, which Juventus comfortably won 3-1. Think we'll see much of the same, especially w/ an in-form Kolo Muani and a Juventus attack that seems to be clicking much more fluidly than at the beginning of the season. Do like his props but trying to show some restraint. Expect to see a goal in the 1H and on the Juventus TT over 1.5.
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City/Madrid - Wow that lineup City is putting out reminds me of the old days. Will they play like the old City? Will be on the 1H over here as Pep's MO has always been to score (or concede) early. Don't forget that the first leg between the two sides has features fireworks before a more muted and conservative second leg. Hard to pick who will step up today but liking Jude Bellingham's 1+ SOG (+100), 2+ SOG (+500) and 1+ asts (+600). Think that ast bet has really good value given Jude does play provider to three clinical finishers in Mbappe, Vini, and Rodrygo. I was at the game Jude scored against City w/ Dortmund and after a mediocre performance in first visit to England this season at Liverpool, I think he'll be a difference maker today.
Juventus/PSG - These two played earlier this season, which Juventus comfortably won 3-1. Think we'll see much of the same, especially w/ an in-form Kolo Muani and a Juventus attack that seems to be clicking much more fluidly than at the beginning of the season. Do like his props but trying to show some restraint. Expect to see a goal in the 1H and on the Juventus TT over 1.5.
Bookings play looking good. I wimped out and took 1.5 cards. Nice to get a win but I’m sure i’m going to wish taking 2.5 cards at +175(this was at the 60th minute)
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Bookings play looking good. I wimped out and took 1.5 cards. Nice to get a win but I’m sure i’m going to wish taking 2.5 cards at +175(this was at the 60th minute)
Mmm I probably should've waited but I thought Brest would be far more aggressive. I guess ref was lenient on some calls. Good win for you though!
@PublicJoe
Yea disappointing. High risk high reward but he didn't seem even interested in getting involved in the attacks and Brest seemed to want to attack down the left flank. Game didn't go as expected smh.
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@Flinnja
Mmm I probably should've waited but I thought Brest would be far more aggressive. I guess ref was lenient on some calls. Good win for you though!
@PublicJoe
Yea disappointing. High risk high reward but he didn't seem even interested in getting involved in the attacks and Brest seemed to want to attack down the left flank. Game didn't go as expected smh.
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