2/12/25 Champions League Thoughts/Plays

Brugge/Atalanta - Probably won't have action here unless I see something live. 3 of 4 first legs all went over w/ Brest/PSG pushing but that too could've easily went over if not for a couple VAR decisions and bounces. Think what we're seeing in these first round of knockouts is what we usually see in the first round of playoffs: the wide chasm in talent between the two teams. Thought Brest would put up a closer fight but PSG showed its' quality. Same w/ Juventus and even Dortmund, who has a penchant for laying eggs all over the place throughout the season. This game feels different. Since Brugge's epic 2H collapse to Dortmund on matchday 1 (which eerily resembled yesterday's game in Portugal), Brugge has held the likes of Aston Villa, Sporting, and Juventus to single digits in the rest of their group stage matches at home, winning the first two and drawing goalless against the Italians. I'm not sure what the result will be tomorrow but I think we'll see a dull goalless 1H before one or two goals come in the 2H. If you remember the Bergamo Boys' run in Europa last season, they drew 1-1 in the first legs in Lisbon and Marseille before finishing them off at home and I think Gasperini would be fine w/ that (yea I remember what they did to Pool in Anfield, don't remind me). Brugge doesn't have the firepower to get into an open match w/ the Italians so I think they'll turn this into a slow grinding match that has worked for them so far in this competition.

Celtic/Bayern - ALL OVER THIS MATCH not just from first glance but Celtic's starting GK Kasper Schmeichel is possibly out tomorrow w/ a back issue. If he cannot go, Viljami Sinisalo, a 23-yo who just got handed his first start against the Raith Rovers in the Scottish Cup, would start. Yea, facing Bayern in the first leg of the most cutthroat football competition on the continent may be a slight step up for kid from the weekend. Took the Bayern -1.5 spread (-101) while having some second thoughts as Bayern has played Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde on the road this season but the possibility of missing someone as experienced Schmeichel in between the posts when your defense isn't exactly a fortress doesn't bode well. Whatever the case may be, I'm sure Bayern's midfield will be running over the hosts w/ the Germans peppering 25+ shots (35 shots against Slovan last CL match, 30 shots against Feyenoord in that shock loss in the Netherlands, 21 shots against Shakhtar banging in 5 goals, and 29 shots while scoring 9 against Dinamo Zagreb) by the time the final whistle blows. That being said, I took Kane 5+ shots (-115), 3+ SOG (+200), 4+ SOG (+500) and Musiala to get 1+ ast (+300) in a match the books expect to see goals and will probably be all one way traffic. Fun fact: Kane has scored against Schmeichel a whopping 18 times in his career including a hat trick the first time they played in the top flight, a four-goal outing in 2017 in a 6-1 drubbing, and in each of their last five matches. Now nursing an injury, wouldn't be surprised to see Kane add to his tally. Hoping I don't get .

Feyenoord/AC Milan - All over AC Milan (and still might) after reading Arne Slot's replacement, Brian Priske, got sacked two days. Don't think the club managers could've picked a worse time to make such a move, especially w/ a roster facing multiple injuries to first team players. And wanna know the kicker? They sold their star striker, who was helping mask a lot of shortcoming this season w/ 14 goals in all competitions to, you guessed it, the team they're facing in the knockouts . The irony of it all. So yea, I'm on AC Milan -0.5 (-124), AC Milan TT over 1.5 (-105), Santiago Gimenez 2+ SOG (+150), 3+ SOG (+600), 2+ goals (+700), and 3+ goals (+3300) (I like to wait for better odds live for AGS so will probably be on that for Gimenez). Gimenez already has an assist and goal in his two matches for AC Milan and w/ Pulisic, Leao, and Felix (sheesh) on the flanks and supporting him chances will be a plenty.

Enough plays for me. Good night.

@I3C1H

  out there today I3C1H, I like em. I love Bayern today too and am on them. I have Gimenez as a notable over in my thread as well. I didn't take him yet, but that could change

@I3C1H

 Looks like Kasper Schmeichel is playing

@Cmlee123

Love it my dude! Hoping we’ll clean up today!

@monkeebooger

That’s ok. There was always a chance with Brendan Rogers playing everything close to his chest. Still think opportunities and chances will go Bayern’s way. Will have to see about the goals.

Good luck today!  I will be blindly tailing many of your plays with my miniscule bets

I have a feeling at least 2-3 games today will go under. Brugge seems like an under for sure. I’m not betting it but I’d take the under if I were. Seems like a 0-0 1-1 or 1-0, 0-1 type of match. The 12 pm matches, I might play them second half. Depending on how the first halves go. I went 5-0 yesterday on champions plays, although I didn’t post them. Today just feels like an under day. Good luck on all your plays! Might tail with Bayern and ac Milan live if I get a better line. 

@Flinnja

@Lewis1218

Nice job yesterday! CL always hard to predict. Was debating between an under day vs are we going to continue to see domination by the big clubs and leaned towards the latter which is why I ended up taking the spreads in the two games. That Brugge goal in the 1H hopefully doesn’t result in an over as I feel like that might not bode well for the noon games  wishing you the best luck on all your plays!

Dont underestimate Celtic Park 

What a fun place that would be to watch a match. BOL today everyone!

@I3C1H

 Crazy game, already 1-1 in first half. Thank god I rarely play unders. Lol. You might be right, maybe the big team domination continues and we see another 3 or even 4 overs today. I’m a degenerate so I know I’m gonna bet the later matches for sure. I really like the Milan play. But that’s a huge public play. 

@jesron1269

 Absolutely agree. Hey, at least you've been to Hotspur Stadium!

I'm California Sober now, so I'm not sure I could tolerate a match at Celtic Park 

@Im_Chasing

Oh by no means but been following Celtic since Ange left and Rogers took over and they haven’t looked as impressive under the new boss. That being said Bayern hasn’t been exactly indestructible under Kompany either but feel Celtic midfield and defense will concede chances. Btw actually been to Glasgow back in 2019 and would have LOVED to visit Celtic Park or the Ibrox but unfortunately it was international break. Thankfully was able to see Belgium and Scotland at Hampden Park and visited Anfield for the first time so was a fantastic trip.

@jesron1269

 Good luck too! I also got went to Hot Spur Stadium where I got to see Sonny hit that second half hat trick off the bench against Leicester. That was surreal to see. Hoping to visit it once again!

@Lewis1218

yea kicking myself a bit for having misread that, especially with having as close to even a 1H over you’ll see in first legs. Somewhat nervous bout the noon games now but went with my gut.

@Im_Chasing

@I3C1H

Wish I could see more Spurs matches. Probably the best sporting day of my life (that or the MLB All-Star weekend in Minneapolis with my two boys in tow). I3C1H that would have been a fun match. Sonny scored at my match. Literally in front of me. 3-1 Tottenham over Bournemouth. Great match! Fun people (Hotspur fans)!

@I3C1H

Yeah, I feel like Bayern never struggles to create chances, they struggle to always execute, especially on the road. I just think the value is crazy high here on Celtic 1X. I cannot see both teams not scoring in this one.

And wow, very jealous. I have never been to Europe period. Not sure there is enough Xanax in the world to get me through a transatlantic flight  Pretty sure Jesron has seen a bunch of EU matches

@jesron1269

 100% agree. After going to my first one at Old Trafford I was hooked and have been blessed to be able to go to multiple matches across Europe. And taking your kids to a sporting event sounds like an awesome experience. Just had my first daughter and my wife and I can’t wait to take her to Anfield LOL

@Im_Chasing

 Yeaa those flights are exhausting, too, especially leaving from LA but as a football enthusiast seems like you have a worldly time there. You’re right that there’s a ton of value on Celtic here especially with how Bayern have played on the road and believe me they’ve screwed me so many times this season already lol. Didn’t go to too heavy on the spreads for that reason as I feel the props market has much higher value here.

@I3C1H

 Yeah I couldnt imagine from LA. I'm East Coast and it still sounds brutal. Yeah, I am unsure what I am doing with this match yet. I may just drink some juice and pound BTTS. But man, I am tempted to play the DRAW. 

GL man and enjoy the match

@Im_Chasing

BTTS just dropped from -155 to -135 in DK. That always makes me nervous. I do agree with you that Celtic should score at home but BM does have the ability to shut anyone down. Hopefully is a good match. Getting a little annoyed with Brugge/Atalata that we can have 2 scores in 41 minutes and nothing after that. Hope that changes soon.

@jesron1269

 Saw that. Back to -145. Im locking in there now. Celtic have been phenomenal this year at home in Europe. Im not too impressed with Bayern's defense. If they take the early lead, I feel like they always let one go in the 2H.

Im on under 3.5 in that one, so I could use an Atalanta goal for my 3-way ML and then under 3.5 haha

@Im_Chasing

The under 3.5 is probably a good call. Just need one more. Atalanta scoring would be great for the majority of the forum. So works for me.

Feyenoord/AC Milan - Gon be on the 1H ladder here. Can’t help but get the sense Gimenez will be eager to get on the scoresheet early. Also think we’ll see cards with emotions riding high on both side and Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez overseeing this game.

Wow how poor has that Milan front 4 been especially Gimenez. Think his props are done as Abraham will probably come on soon smh.

Thoughts on the second halves? Live over 2.5 bayern?

You think ac Milan double chance or take the under 2.5 in that game ?