2/21/25 Thoughts and Plays

Freiburg/Werder Bremen - Wary of how the goals have generally slowed down in Bundesliga the last few weeks but saw that Freiburg hasn’t conceded in 3 straight matches with all ending 1-0. I just like spots like this especially when Freiburg has still conceded 1.63 goals/game in spite of their recent defensive display. Take a look at all their home matches this season and other than against Heidenheim, who can’t score, and Mainz, who reminds me of NF, every game has seen 3+ goals. Like the over 2.5 but decided to draw up a SGP consisting of btts and 1H over 0.5 + Leicester City/Brentford over 1.5 and 1H over 0.5. That pays out a tidy +180.

Leicester City/Brentford - Lean the over 3 here as I expect btts and Brentford to win but having that SGP above already, rather wait for a live play here as this game is my most favorite play of the day. Leicester’s scored only 3 goals over its’ last six games getting shut out in four, and Brentford’s balls to the wall goalscoring form seems to have dipped too as it’s been shut out in five of its’ last ten matches and has scored only 6 goals during that time if you take out that 5-0 onslaught of Southampton as an outside data point. Thing is Leicester scored against ManU and Tott, whose defense I rate similar to Brentford’s, while Leicester seems closer to Southampton than Brighton and Fulham, who both shut out Brentford recently. Basically I think both teams are due for a high scoring game seeing 4-5+ goals. On the 1H over 1 and/or 0.75 provided I can grab it if there is no early goal but if there is one the SGP covers it. Instead think there’s value on the over 4 goals (+265). Also took Mbeumo 3+ shots (-105) and 3+ SOG (+700). Again think this game will have tons of opportunities on both sides and Mbeumo has cleared 3+ shots in his last six games so I’m not sure why it’s sitting at even money. He also is ninth in the league in SOT just behind the likes of Isak, Cunha, and Watkins. He makes his shots count. Would take the runner on 2+ SOG and 4+ shots, but having gotten burned on these ladders before so trying to show some restraint.

@I3C1H

We should be safe on either btts or o2.5, or both, lets hope this game isn't a stinker. I believe Werder actually has a shot to win. BOL to us today bro.

Respective to home and away fixtures:

Btts avg for both teams is about 67%

o2.5 avg for both teams is about 77%

u2.5 avg for both teams is about 24%

Should be a good Friday game to watch.

@I3C1H

 Don’t you think Leicester will come out very defensive 1h? They need a point at all costs.

@Cmlee123

 Loving the numbers 

@monkeebooger

 Hmm I don’t see it that way tbh. Think they’ll see this as a winnable game but truthfully it’s hard to know how teams/managers will approach the game. The numbers/trends is where I think we’ll see goals just because both teams haven’t been scoring at all. Think it’s worth the risk.

Wow did anyone catch that goal by Freiburg impressive af

@I3C1H

 1st one was pretty sick!

@Cmlee123

 Just need that goal from Bremen now. Can’t believe Silva missed that penalty smh he was on 100% conversion rate lol

yep. I'm afraid that miss will burn the btts play Bremen getting their doors blown off

@I3C1H

 Yeah, PK is as free as it gets most times. Still some time.

@tt_boy @Cmlee123

Bummer just needed that last leg. Seems like when team's miss penalties they don't get very many chances after to score. Saw it w/ Atalanta midweek. It's almost like the miss psychologically damage them especially when they're down. O well.

Hmm shoulda played the ladder on Mbeumo but glad at least the 3+ shots cashed. Coulda cleaned up w/ that Bremen goal but will take a positive day anyday.

@I3C1H

 I feel if they would have made the PK the game dynamic could have changed, yet we gamble, and move on.

@Cmlee123

 Definitely. Gotta convert free chances. Wonder why Ducksch wasn't starting. Interesting to see the number of 1-0 games on the board today. A "no btts" bettor woulda absolutely cleaned up today.

@I3C1H

 Same! I didn't understand that either. Lame. Werder is in shambles lately, I guess part of me thought they would bring something, yet 5-0. 

@Cmlee123

 It is what it is. Numbers wise I think it was still the right play. Expected goals for Werder was 1.26. You figure that usually translates over to results, especially when Freiburg has scored 8 straight now w/o conceding. May look to push hard on Ausburg to score in Freiburg's next game. Metrics don't lie and it's not like their defense is on Arsenal/Inter level. Regression should be coming soon.

@I3C1H

 I agree. I'm 1st and foremost a run numbers guy(post #2)....it was always the o2.5.....its when I run the numbers and its not close where I scratch my head. I watch all the German games so I know wtf is going on, yet sometimes neither the numbers or watching is enough and we lose. Tomorrow I think I have 1 bet. I have to be careful in Germany after the past 2 weeks. The way I see it I have 5 games to make 1 or 2 bets. I think I'm going to lock soon on just one due to the way shit has been going there. My Bundy thread was once great and now went to shit.  

I like your angle on Augs next game, we should discuss later in the week. I like your angles on things. Respect.

@Cmlee123

 100% agree brother. Glad we can bounce ideas off each other