Manchester United/Ipswich Town - Not a fan of MUFC by any means but I expected much more from the team when Amorim took over. To say that both he and his former club Sporting should’ve stayed together and seen at least this season through would be an understatement as I thought Sporting could possibly make a run in CL a la the 2018-2019 Ajax squad who was ironically coached by ETH. Since Amorim took over, he’s compiled a 5/0/5 record at home, only beating a struggling Dyche-led Everton by 1+ goals during that time. The rest of the home victories include a 2H comeback to see out Bodo Glimt, a miracle last minute hat trick by Diallo for a bailout win over relegation-bound Southampton, and extra time winners needed to see off Rangers and Leicester City FC. I read a few weeks back that the unhappiness and restlessness in the Old Trafford stands every home match is a significant factor in MU’s awful home form and it’s hard not to believe so. Diallo’s season-ending injury is such a killer blow for this team who required his heroics on more than one occasion this season to salvage points; without his performances they would seriously be in a relegation battle, something I never thought I’d write in my lifetime. Ipswich has had some luck go against them including last week where I thought had they got onto the front foot early, they definitely would’ve picked up a point or more, so I don’t quite understand this +1 spread (-109). ManU SHOULD NOT be getting more than a goal right now against any team. Can’t see this attack running teams out of the building or keeping clean sheets. Last week, Liam Delap got off to a scorching start, hitting the target and the post in the first 6 minutes on his way to 2 SOG on 5 shots in the first 25 minutes of the game. His luck, and his team’s, will flip soon. He’s one of the league leaders in SOG and he hit the target twice on 3 shots in Amorim’s debut at Portman Road. Give me Delap 2+ SOG (+400).
Tott/City - Expecting a wide open encounter here with plenty of shots on both sides. How often have you seen City shut out? Actually when have you seen City shut out at home? Even when they lose, they go down swinging. I know Tottenham’s been City’s kryptonite throughout Pep’s career (probably prevented him from adding a couple more trophies to his case including possibly another coveted CL) but my gut feeling tomorrow is that City will get the win here. But that’s not my play. I’m going to continue riding the Djed Spence train with 2+ shots (+491) and 1+ SOG (+500). The 1+ SOG smacked over the weekend and has hit in his last 3 matches so I’m not sure why the price has not adjusted accordingly. Since his insertion into the starting lineup in mid December, the kid has arguably been Tottenham’s best player, injecting youth and energy into an injured and fatigued squad. Ange LOVES using his wingbacks (Porro) to aid in his attack, and City can’t control the midfield meaning it will continue to concede a healthy amount of chances. Funny enough Spence has yet to clear 2+ shots since starting. Think that has a good chance to end tomorrow. Also loving Kulusevski’s assist ladder (1+ @ +400 and a sprinkle on 2+ @+2900). Son has more assists but Dejan’s arguably been the creator/facilitator of that attack. He got an assist on 3 chances created in the reverse fixture at the Etihad and picked up both assists in City’s crash out of the EFL cup. He has a history of scoring or assisting against City, and after scoring last match, feel like he’ll turn provider today. And yea I’ll be on the 1H over runner in this game if the opportunity allows.
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