Posted:
#1
The Wanderers are coming off a frustrating game. Despite having multiple chances to put the game out of reach, their one goal lead evaporated in stoppage time. Heading into this match against the Phoenix, Western Sydney are sitting 4 points behind the Roar.
I think the Wanderers are keen to make up for those lost points by getting a solid win today. The ML has been juiced accordingly, sitting @ -220.. while -1 @ -140 is tempting, the Phoenix seem to have found a bit of form, coming off to straight wins..
While the Wanderers lead the league in UNDERS, and are on a run of 5 straight games going under 2.5, I feel the OVER 2.5 is worth backing @ -105. Wellington, despite having just one win and one draw in their 6 away matches this year, have managed to score 7 in these games, and conceded 11 (though 4 of these goals came at the hands of Perth)..
In a game where we should see both teams eager to start the new year on a good note, I think there is a decent chance of seeing a 2-1 game.
The juice keeps me from backing the Wanderers to win (and -1.5 is too risky in this spot imo), so the only play I am left with is the o2.5
For a team that leads the league in unders, I am surprised to see the o2.5 is not at plus money... Either some big money has hit the overs, or the books don't see this as a low scoring-affair and would prefer not to attract anymore action on the over... both are favorable signs...
o2.5 @ -105
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