2022 FIFA World Cup Betting Guide
Group Stage Round 1
*Odds from Bovada current as of 11/18
The first round of group stages of any international tournament are slow- nobody wants to be behind early so most teams play conservatively. Expect low scoring games for this round of play and generally avoid the over except in severely mismatched opponents.
Bagre’s favorites to win (in order): Brazil, France, England, Argentina
Group A
Qatar vs Ecuador
Sunday 11/20
Tough fixture only because reports just came out that Qatar bribed Ecuador players to lose. I don’t trust those bastards, but if I were to bet, Ecuador ML +145 is the move.
Senegal vs. Netherlands
Monday 11/21
The Netherlands should win this match, largely because Senegal is missing its biggest striker through injury and will likely struggle to score goals. That being said, the Senegal team does have some superstars on defense, so I see this being a low-score win for the Netherlands, either 1-0 or 2-0. Solid bet would be Netherlands ML -165 or the under at U 2, 2.5 at -105.
Group B
England vs Iran
Monday 11/21
England should also come away with a win in this match- Iran is a truly terrible team that stands absolutely no chance of making it out of the group. This is one match to take the over at 2, 2.5 +102.
USA vs Wales
Monday 11/21
This will be a tough match and is hard to call. The US team has trouble scoring goals and the Welsh are underrated. A draw is a fairly high likelihood for this matchup and +205 is a solid bet for cowards. However, the Bagre is betting US ML +155.
Group C
Argentina vs Saudi Arabia
Tuesday 11/22
This is Messi’s last world cup appearance and Argentina is stacked. Saudi is another dog shit team so Argentina -2.0 (-110) should be a safe bet for the opener.
Mexico vs Poland
Tuesday 11/22
Tough matchup for both teams and hard to predict the result. Mexico has been underperforming, and would do well to come away with 3 points here but either a draw or Poland winning outright are both more likely. Bagre is rolling with the under at 2, 2.5 (-105).
Group D
Denmark vs Tunisia
Tuesday 11/22
Denmark should easily come away with 3 points here. Tunisia’s team is old and none of their players play for good teams and the majority of them play in shit leagues in Tunisia or the Middle East. Another Over bet at 2, 2.5 (-115).
France vs Australia
Tuesday 11/22
France is another favorite to win the competition and have a good mix of veterans (who won the last world cup in 2018) and world class young talent. Australia is a bunch of no-names that wouldn’t be there if they weren’t part of the easiest qualifying group in the world. Take France -1.5, 2 (-102).
Group E
Germany vs Japan
Wednesday 11/23
This might be a surprisingly tough match for Germany. I’m not sure they will beat Japan by more than one goal, so the safe bet here is Germany ML at -200. Might be a good one to sit out.
Spain vs Costa Rica
Wednesday 11/23
Costa Rica barely qualified through a playoff game with New Zealand that went down to the wire. Spain should win easily and I could see them running riot in this one. Spain -2.0 (-115) should win cash here.
Group F
Morocco vs Croatia
Wednesday 11/23
Croatia has possibly the best midfielder in the world but is in a transitionary period between generations. They made it to the final in the last world cup, losing to France, but have a few veterans still in the squad from that team. Playing Morocco shouldn’t be too tough and they should come away with 3 points here but it probably won’t be a blowout. Croatia ML at even money is the best bet.
Belgium vs Canada
Wednesday 11/23
Belgium is one of the best teams in Europe and is filled with good players, and could be a dark horse to go far in the tournament. Canada hasn’t been to the world cup in our lifetime (last appearance was 1986) and they have one superstar that will have to carry them as far as they get. Belgium -1.0 (-118) is solid here.
Group G
Switzerland vs Cameroon
Thursday 11/24
The Swiss team has some great players and should come away with a win here. Cameroon has a handful of good players but will struggle to win this match. Switzerland ML -140 is a good bet, but a draw is also a possibility and at +255 could be safe. Bagre is taking Switzerland ML.
Brazil vs Serbia
Thursday 11/24
Brazil is one of the favorites to win and have an incredible squad with superstars in every position as well as experience and depth. Serbia has some talented players but will struggle in this opener. Brazil -1, 1.5 (+102) is a good choice here.
Group H
Uruguay vs South Korea
Thursday 11/24
Uruguay always performs well in the world cup and has another talented squad with a handful of superstars in key positions. South Korea also has one of the most talented wingers in the world and should offer a solid opponent, so this one is also a tough call. A draw is probably a good bet here at +245. An adventurous bet would be Uruguay -0.5 (-122).
Portugal vs Ghana
Thursday 11/24
This is Cristiano’s last world cup, and him and the whole Portugal team are going to want to make a statement here. Ghana only have a couple of talented players and are not as strong as usual this go round. Portugal should come away with a win here. Portugal -1, 1.5 (-108) on this match.
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