YTD (SOCCER): 19-5-4 ATS
I can go on and on about how solid of a day I had yesterday but I won't, because there is no need, today is a new day. I also lost a small bit back due to college basketball being college basketball so I'm not immune to quick downturns. I just don't think that will happen today.
PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN +1 (-135): I am sure this will be a favorite play but when I went to bed last night the spread was +1/2 and then I woke up to Bayern Munich odds much higher. Now I see PSG at +300 to win the game outright so I start to ask myself what am I missing. Similar to yesterdays game, if those are the odds and the total is 3.5 and is unchanged, then that MUST mean that the oddsmakers see PSG at least scoring one goal. Being they need at LEAST one goal as the reverse fixture ended 1-0 to Munich, I don't see them laying an egg. Moreover, as we all witnessed and/or read, the game crucially changed when Mbappe was brought in the second half and he even had two goals ruled off b/c of offsides (don't get me started). I know PSG will be without Neymar, and he is a loss, but the chemistry that PSG is showing of recent, scoring and coming back in games, is very impressive. I think that's more to do with the play of Messi and Mbappe than with coaching. But I do believe PSG have the advantage on the touchline as well as both managers are in their 1st year for giant football clubs. The recent play of Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz for PSG, has me confident they can create opportunities at least on the counterattack. I realize how good Munich is at home, but I also realize they can get scored on and do by far less lethal attacks in the Bundesliga. One can state the same for PSG and I think this will be an entertaining game, at worst. I do NOT see added extra time though obviously with my play it insures I win if that happens. So, in my opinion, there is just too much value in this line for me to pass up.
TOTTENHAM (-117): This is a game I absolutely love. The Spurs have been sputtering of late not being able to find the back of the net but they have also been sans their coach, Antonio Conte. That's important b/c Conte has an incredible record against AC Milan in home games and has an incredible record in home games altogether. With Spurs knowing they need to win this game, and having the home crowd support, I do see them getting it done, though I think it will be a lower scoring affair. My only hesitation, if I have one, is that Tottenham have bowed out at this juncture of the tournament too many times of late, but on the flip side, Milan hasn't advanced to the next stage in 11 years, so one team will be bucking that trend, and my money is on the home side Spurs.
That's it for today, I flirted with taking the over in the PSG/Munich game but will sit it out. Might do a fun parlay with PSG on money line but otherwise I feel confident with the plays above. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..
As always.
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