COPA LIBERTADORES
COPA Libertadores Record
3-2-0
+3.51
** Interesting stat re the Preliminary Round of Libertadores . . . looking back from 2008 to the present, the home team in the first leg has either drawn or won the vast majority of the time . . . this is likely because of a number of obvious factors, including (a) the importance that the home team in the first fixture places on a positive result since advancing means big bucks; and (b) the desire of the visiting teams to take home a draw for the reverse. For example:
In 2008, of the six first leg games, the home team won or drew 6 times - no losses by any home team in the first leg
In 2009, of the six first leg games, the home team won or drew 5 out of 6 times . . only one home team first leg loss
In 2010, of the six first leg games, the home team won or drew 6 out of 6 times. . . no home team first leg losses
In 2011, of the six first leg games, the home team won or drew 4 out of 6 times . . . only two home team first leg losses - weak home teams that year in the Preliminary Round (ie. peruvian bankrupt teams)
In 2012, of the six first leg games, the home team won or drew 6 out of 6 times. . . no home team first round losses
In 2013, of the six first leg games, the home team won or drew 6 out of 6 times . . . no home team first round losses . . .
Thus, I am inclined to look favorably at home teams at a PK in the first round of the Prelimnary Round of Copa Lib - IE. Like Sporting Cristal tonight . . . granted, they are playing a brazilian side . . . but I will stick with the trend . . . too important of a match for SC to lose and Atletico would be content with a draw . . .so i'll take that SC PK all day long. This is probably overly simplistic and the sample sizes are way too small . . . but hey, it floats my boat so I'm going with it. I won't follow it however with respect to the Cuenca match . . . Botafogo should be ready to keep pace and their offensive threat concerns me re backing the home side.
Sporting Cristal [Peru] v. Atletico PR [Brasil] 6 PM CST
Sporting Cristal PK +104 (2 units)
Sporting Cristal +201
Deportivo Quito [Ecuador] v. Botafogo [Brasil] 6 PM CST
Quito o/2 (-128) 2 units
Quito o/2,25 (+109)
Extra:
COLOMBIAN SUPER CUP
At Nacional v. Cali 6 PM CST
At Nacional o/2,25 (-120)
Cali +,75 (-113)
ECUADOR
Cuenca v. Independiente del Valle 7 PM CST
Cuenca o/2.5 (+103)
Independiente PK (-123)
Barcelona v. Manta 6 PM CST
Barcelona o/2.5 (+110)
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