Copa Libertadores Apr 7-9

Tachira / Cristal:

The price of Cristal has been dropping like a rock, so best to lock in now before it goes down any further. Dare I say they should be favourites? The working hypothesis is Cristal as an under performing favourite, but over achieving dog. In the first leg, they missed a PK that would have sealed the win. Guarani has put some big time heat on Cristal, so we'll see if they rise to the occasion or wilt. They need 3 points, plus goals to reduce the differential. A loss would not be fatal, but depending on the margin of victory, Cristal would need to beat Guarani at home by 3+ to draw level. I can’t see that being easy, given how they’ve shat the bed at home. Lobaton not playing helps Tachira, but it’s overblown (note the line movement). He did also miss the penalty kick in the first leg. Cristal will throw the kitchen sink so it’s a matter of how Tachira responds.

A loss or tie would eliminate Tachira, so they will be pushing for a win. Credit to them, they frustrated Cristal at home, but a negative tactics won’t help now. They will need to generate chances, and in turn, that will give Cristal opportunities. They apparently turned off the stadium lights while Cristal was practicing…this crap could backfire too. Just saying...

Over 2.50 (2 units)

Cristal PK,

Cristal TT over 1.00

Huracan / Sucre:

Sucre plan on using 5 defenders. It’s going to be Huracan attacking for 90”. A win sends Huracan into second place, and don’t think Sucre are anywhere good enough to keep a clean sheet.

Huracan TT over 1.75

Tigres / River Plate:

This should be match of the week. Top vs Bottom. It seems like two teams headed in different directions. River has misfired all tourney while Tigres have excelled. It could well be another tight contest with a late goal to decide it. All the pressure is on River here, just like in Peru. Something is going to give, and I don’t think it’s going to be the home side.

Tigres PK

Tigres TT over 1.00